View
17
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Food Security in OmanPosition and Prospects
Hemesiri KotagamaDepartment of Natural Resource EconomicsCollege of Agricultural and Marine SciencesSultan Qaboos University
World Food Day 2012 SQU1
CONTENT
Global position on food markets and food security Oman’s position on food security: Economic Measures
– (Salwa Al Jabri & Kotagama, MSc) Oman’s prospects to achieve food security
– Staple: Wheat ( Houcine, Kotagama: SQU Study)
– Fish (Khamis Al Jabri & Kotagama, MSc)
– Role of Government (Press Release)
– Role of Individuals (Esma Al Balushi & Kotagama)
World Food Day 2012 SQU2
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: PAST AND PRESENT EXPECTATION
Definition of food security (UN/ FAO)Food security exists:
– when all people, – at all time, – have physical, social and economic access – to sufficient, safe and nutritious food – which meets their dietary needs and – food preferences – for an active and healthy life.
World Food Day 2012 SQU3
Glo
bal
Global food availability
Na
tio
na
l
National net food imports
National food production
National foodavailability
Household Incomes
Household food access
Food Security Care HealthOther basic needsand non necessities H
ou
seh
old
In
div
idu
al
Nutritional Security
FOUR LEVELS OF FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS
World Food Day 2012 SQU4
Social Aspects of Food SecurityEffect of Mothers Nutritional Knowledge and Attitudes on Omani Children’s Dietary IntakeAli Al-Shookri, Layla Al-Shukaily, Fouad Hassan, Sadeq Al-Sheraji, Saif Al-TobiOman Medical Journal (2011) Vol. 26, No. 4: 253-257
AbstractObjectives: The study investigates the dietary intakes of Omani preschoolers and associations with both socio-demographic characteristics and the mother’s nutritional knowledge and attitudes.
Methods: A sample of 154 parents of preschoolers completed a questionnaire including socio-demographic characteristics, a food-frequency questionnaire to assess children’s food intake, nutritional knowledge and attitudes towards healthy eating.
Results: The results showed a lower dietary adequacy of children’s food intake in mothers with low educational levels, high-ranked occupation, and lower levels of both nutritional knowledge and food related health attitudes. The highest food intake and healthy eating attitude scores were found in children of mothers with high education level and mother without a job. The association of the dietary adequacy with socio-demographic background can help the Omani healthcare decision makers to develop better-tailored nutrition interventions which are more suitable for the Omani community.
Conclusion: The results from this study of mothers’ nutritional knowledge and attitudes support the inclusion of knowledge and attitudes in dietary interventions.
World Food Day 2012 SQU5
One Aspect of Health, Food and Richness: Obesity
World Food Day 2012 SQU6
Other Aspect of Health, Food and Poverty: Malnourishment
World Food Day 2012 SQU7
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: PRESENT REALITY
Since 2007 – “silent tsunami of hunger
is sweeping the world.” Within 2 years
– Food prices rose by 83%.– Wheat and rice prices
have nearly tripled (300%). 1% increase in food price
reduces the calorie intake by 0.5% among the poor.
Rising food prices have pushed 100 m people below poverty line.
World Food Day 2012 SQU8
Factors contributing to change in food commodity prices
World Food Day 2012 SQU9
Demand based reasons.
Economic boom in developing countries (India and China)
37% of world population in India and China Increased income (more than 600 million new middle
class) Leading to increased demand for food and meat
– Corn and wheat diverted to feed from food– Food conversion ratio (700 cal of animal feed produces 100
cal in beef, 7:1)
World Food Day 2012 SQU10
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: Economic Reasons Cont.
• Fuel substitutes food• Threat of climate change and high petroleum prices induces agro-fuel (ethanol) production.
• President Bush signed the “Energy Independence and Security Act” on 19th December 2007, which mandates 36 billion gallons of bio fuel to be produced yearly by 2022.
• By 2020 US and EU demand for grain for ethanol production will be 400 m tons a year.
• China aims at producing 15 billion litres of bio fuel by 2020.
• By 2008 demand for grain for bio fuel is 114 m tons (28% of the projected harvest).
• US estimate is that the impact of bio fuel production as 3% increase in food prices but WB estimate is 75%.
• Corn requirement to fill a tank of a car with 18.5 gallon capacity could feed a human being for 270 days.
World Food Day 2012 SQU11
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: Economic Reasons Cont.
Market Speculation for Food– Investments in grain and livestock
futures has more than doubled to about $65 Billion from $ 25 Billion in November 2007.
– More than half the value of corn, soya and wheat of US (the largest exporter) has already been bought.
World Food Day 2012 SQU12
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: Economic Reasons Cont.
Supply Based Reasons
Rise in oil prices increasing the cost of production of food and transport.– Modern farming is
energy intensive
Type: PNG
World Food Day 2012 SQU13
• Price of fertilizer increased much faster than food prices (2007-2008)
Increasing the cost of food production and raising the supply function thus food prices.
World Food Day 2012 SQU14
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: Economic Reasons Cont.
Climate Factors Drought in major
grain producing areas– Australia, second
largest exporter of wheat
– Wild fires in Russia
World Food Day 2012 SQU15
GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: Economic Reasons Cont.
Complacency– Ignoring investments in
agricultural education, research and technological adoption.
Investment in agricultural research in developing countries is only 0.6% of GDP richer countries it is 5% of GDP.
Removing government intervention and allowing the market to provide food
– Structural adjustment/ Privatization
World Food Day 2012 SQU16
OMAN’S POSITION: PAST AND TREND
Oman up to 1970’s with low population (0.65 m) and subsistence farming has been nearly self-sufficient in food.
World Food Day 2012 SQU17
World Food Day 2012 SQU18
World Food Day 2012 SQU19
OMAN’S REPORT TO WORLD FOOD SUMMIT 2006
Food security 2005 (% domestically produced)– Milk 29%– Red meat 34%– Poultry eggs 53%– Poultry meat 35%– Fish 134%– Dates 108%– Total fruits 70%– Total vegetables 56%
World Food Day 2012 SQU20
Consumption of energy, protein and fat in Oman ( per person per day) from 2005 to 2007 (Source: Adapted from MNE , 2009)
World Food Day 2012 SQU21
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CAPACITY: PAST PERFORMANCE (1995-2007)
Annual growth Rates(%(1995-Annual growth Rates(%(1995-2007)2007)
VegetablesVegetables -3.9-3.9
WheatWheat -1.6-1.6
FruitsFruits 7.47.4
MilkMilk 52.052.0
MeatMeat 12.412.4
PoultryPoultry 25.625.6
FishFish 1.71.7
Vegetable Production (Tons)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
Fruits
Veg
Animal Production (Tons)
050000
100000
150000200000
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
Meat
Milk
Poultry
Fish
مساحة (فدان) وانتاجالقمح (طن)
0
2000
4000
1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
المساحة
الإنتاج
World Food Day 2012 SQU22
OMANS POSITION: PRESENT
Annual inflation in Oman in the past 18 years was 1% or less.
Inflation this year 10%.Food prices have increased by
– 17-20%.
World Food Day 2012 SQU23
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GENERALINFLATION
FOOD INFLATION
World Market was unreliable as a source of food supplyPrice inflation in Oman was one of the highest in GCCNeed to strengthen the role of Local Production in insuring food security
50
100
150
200
250
2000M1 2001M1 2002M1 2003M1 2004M1 2005M1 2006M1 2007M1 2008M1
LESSONS LEARNED FROM 2007-2008 FOOD CRISIS
World food price indices
Oman food price inflation
World Food Day 2012 SQU24
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Cerals products
Meat&poultry
Fish
Dairy&eggs
Oil&fats
Fruits&veg
Sugar products
Beverage-non alcoholic
Others
%change
Changes in food prices in the Sultanate during 2006-2008
World Food Day 2012 SQU25
Analysis of Household Expenditure and Income Survey: Food
The Structure of Household Food Consumption BasketOman 2008
12%
16%
7%10%2%9%9%4%
7%
15%4% 5%
Cereals products
Meat &poultry
Fish
Dairy &eggs
Oil&fats
Fruits
vegetable
Sugar products
beverage
resturant food
food from own production
others
Cereals, meat and “Food away from home” dominate (15%) the household food basket
World Food Day 2012 SQU26
Percent fulfillment of recommended nutrients from actual food consumption
World Food Day 2012 SQU27
Nutritionally Adequate Least Cost Diet for Oman:
Mathematical Structure of the Model
foodsofnumberthen
nutrientsofnumberthem
spreferenceifoodp
ifoodofdaypereattoservinggramsux
foodofgramsupertc
jnutrientofamountdailyrequiredb
ifoodofgramsuinjnutrientofamounta
nix
xofp
xpx
mjbxa
tosubject
xcMinfunctionobjective
i
i
i
i
ij
i
n
iii
n
iiii
n
iiij
n
iii
cos
,....,1,0
%
,......11
1
World Food Day 2012 SQU28
NAPLCD value under different food access scenarios
OR/ Month/ Household
Scenario / Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Purchased food items 153.140 154.539 158.001 159.343 168.654 198.900
Purchase food items and restaurant food (70%) 173.272 174.855 178.772 180.290 190.825 225.048
Purchase food items and produce (30%) 139.440 140.839 144.301 145.643 154.954 185.201
Weighted Average 163.1228 164.6499 168.4304 169.8958 180.064 213.0938
World Food Day 2012 SQU29
Income distribution in Oman
Year 2000 Year 2008
Income (OR/Month/Household) % Households’ Less than 100 8.20 3.00 100-199 12.30 4.70 200-299 13.30 7.60 300-399 12.40 9.00 400-499 10.40 9.50 500-599 8.80 6.50 600-699 5.90 5.70 700 and more 28.70 54.00 Average Income (OR/ Month/Household) 638.000 913.000 Source: MONE (2001 and 2010)
World Food Day 2012 SQU30
Lorenz curves on income distribution for years 2000 and 2008
World Food Day 2012 SQU31
Percent of income spent on food with increasing household income
World Food Day 2012 SQU32
Measures of food insecurity revealing the impact of price increases on food security
Food Security
Headcount Rate (P0)Food Security
Gap (P1)Squared Food Security Gap (P2)
Income Distribution Income Distribution Income Distribution
2003 2008 change 2003 2008 change 2003 2008 change
2008 Prices
42.8 29.3 -13.5 15.2 6.9 -8.3 8.9 3.4 -5.4
2003 Prices
24.0 9.7 -14.3 10.0 3.7 -6.3 6.2 2.3 -4.0
Note: Changes shown between years 2003 and 2008
World Food Day 2012 SQU33
The cost of alleviating food insecurity
Data for Estimation
NAPLC 2008 OR/Month/Houshold 213
F0 0.29
F1 0.069
Average food Gap 50.67931034
Population Milion 2300000
Number food insecure 667000
Total food gap 116562413.8
GDP 2008 market prices 23185100000
Food Gap/GDP as % 0.502747082
World Food Day 2012 SQU34
Growth and redistribution decomposition of food security changes (without changes in food prices: 2003 Prices)
Income Distribution
Change in incidence of Food Security
2003 2008Actual change
Growth Redistribution Interaction
Food Security Headcount Rate (P0)
24.02 9.70
-14.32 -6.31 -6.92 -1.09
World Food Day 2012 SQU35
World Food Day 2012 SQU36
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
Given resource scarcity and increased population and income;
– Oman will have to depend on world market for food. Government has a role to reduce the risks of high prices
and export restrictions etc.– Improve efficiency of local production
oman-food-security-strategy-increasing-local-production.html– Adopt food safety net policies to improve access to food for poor.
Food ration, food stamp, increase income, …– Maintain justifiable planned buffer stocks and not ‘panic buy’.
qn_news_story_s.asp.htm– Establish a unit to monitor and guide food imports by private sector
Diversify food import sources.– Cultivating in other countries possessing resources 12495.htm– Encourage investments on agriculture (education, research and
production) in Oman and in foreign nations (Food Diplomacy).
World Food Day 2012 SQU37
OMAN’S SHORT TERM RESPONSE
Secured 200,000 tonnes of rice, sufficient to feed the population for 2 years. (Observer, 4th May 2008)
State workers salaries were increased by 43%.
World Food Day 2012 SQU38
World Food Day 2012 SQU39
World Food Day 2012 SQU40
World Food Day 2012 SQU41
World Food Day 2012 SQU42
World Food Day 2012 SQU43
World Food Day 2012 SQU44
World Food Day 2012 SQU45
World Food Day 2012 SQU46
World Food Day 2012 SQU47
World Food Day 2012 SQU48
World Food Day 2012 SQU49
World Food Day 2012 SQU50
World Food Day 2012 SQU51
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: WHEAT
World Food Day 2012 SQU52
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: WHEAT
World Food Day 2012 SQU53
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: WHEAT
World Average 2.75 MT/Ha Oman Average 3.16 MT/Ha
World Food Day 2012 SQU54
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: WHEAT
Oman has traditionally grown wheat and the climate is conducive for wheat production.
At present Oman is in a position to import its wheat requirement. Although wheat prices have increased recently, the increase in oil prices may compensate increases in wheat price.
Reliance on imported wheat alone may put Oman at risk in the event of wheat embargoes.
Considering the limited supply of suitable land and water for agriculture, major shifts in land and water use away from crops cultivated at present will be required to produce significant amounts of wheat.
Therefore, Oman may aim for and achieve partial wheat sovereignty.
World Food Day 2012 SQU55
World Food Day 2012 SQU56
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: FISH
The decreased availability of fish in domestic markets is despite increased population and income in Oman.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Fish landed Total exports Local use
000Ton
29%
-12%
83%
World Food Day 2012 SQU57
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: FISH
It was hypothesized that the transport function of Omani fish markets is inefficient.– The transport function is favoring export
markets instead of domestic markets.
A “Transport Model” based on linear programming was developed for the analysis.
World Food Day 2012 SQU58
Sohar
Masirah
MahootJBBA
Dubai
IbriNizwa
Seeb
World Food Day 2012 SQU59
Observed and Optimal Prices: Kingfish
World Food Day 2012 SQU60
OMAN’S PROSPECTS: FISH
Oman’s fish market if efficient, yet favouring exports over domestic markets.
The big “trade-off” : Efficiency vs. Equity.
Less fish in domestic markets will impact food balance and security, particularly in the interior areas.
World Food Day 2012 SQU61
World Food Day 2012 SQU62
Food Waste in Oman: Responsibility of All
World Food Day 2012 SQU63
Esma’s study
An average Omani family wastes about a third (1/3) of all food prepared within the household.
Omani household typically throws away 70 Omani riyals (Dh9.5) worth of leftover food every month.
Food waste of 3 families can feed 1 poor family for a month.
World Food Day 2012 SQU64
World Food Day 2012 SQU65
World Food Day 2012 SQU66
World Food Day 2012 SQU67
World Food Day 2012 SQU68
World Food Day 2012 SQU69
World Food Day 2012 SQU70
World Food Day 2012 SQU71
Please …
World Food Day 2012 SQU72
Thank you for not wasting food …
World Food Day 2012 SQU73
Recommended