Wildfire and Artificial Intelligence: How a Middle School Project Turned into Tahoe’s...

Sagehen Fire June 8th, 2016—Peavine

Dr. Graham Kent & Seismo TeamNevada Seismological Laboratory

keeping the first of many small …

—Tahoe Silicon Mountain—

June 13th, 2016

Wildfire and Artificial Intelligence: How a Middle School Project Turned into Tahoe’s Wildfire

Detection System

Bunker Hill – Historic Fire Lookout

West of Lake Tahoe

500+ Fire Camera Towers Installed in California (20th

century)… mostly abandoned as climate change kicks into

full gear!

Public Works Meets Fire Danger

Kid meets FireCurry Camp Firefall

Glacier Point, Yosemite NP

Next to my house, San Diego, Day 1 Laguna Mountain, Day 2

Cedar Fire, 2003100,000 acres, 18 hours

Seismologist meets Wildfire

Angora Fire 2007–$160M + $1B economic afterglow

Smarter Kids Meets Wildfire

King Fire

Rim Fire

Rough Fire

Weed Fire

Rocky Fire

Lake Fire

Valley FireButte Fire

Station

Washington Fire

Cedar Fire Witch Fire

estimate 5-7% of GHG loading in California

2003 2007

—10% Hit Rate—

Cap ’n Trade

UC Berkeley Seismology Lab detects earthquake initiation–M6.0 earthquake averted, region feels a M3.4 joltAn Unlikely Earthquake Early

Warning Headline

Fire is different relative to other hazards!

Fire Cameras 1.0

CCTV, analog, poor resolution, power hungry

Disruptive Technology

pilotless cars–machine vision4K

Moore’s Law 2X/18 mo.

Raul Rojas (UNR)

Internet of (burning) Things… Got Resilience ?

Snow Valley Peak, Lake Tahoe

AlertTahoeAccess to Leverage Emergency information in Real Time

Multi-purpose, Integrated Hazard Platform

…it’s the network and scalable!

Can a multi-hazard approach help provide a hardened EEW network ?

communication path

“Surprisingly, there isn’t even a good map of the Internet’s highways and byways to clearly show locations that, if taken out, would severely hamper the system. “Everybody assumes somebody knows, but after a while you find out nobody actually knows,” said Paul Barford, a professor of computer science at the University of Wisconsin”

ShakeAlert coming soon …

Wayne Huntsman* King Fire 2014

$140M 97,000+ acres

Ronald Beau Marshall* Boles/Weed Fire 2014

150 residences 479 acres

Keith Emerald** Rim Fire $127M

257,000+ acres

*suspects are awaiting trial** dismissed, two main witnesses died

—Creeper Hall of Fame—

Lightning

System Design—multiple fires

AlertTahoe

Multi-Hazard

USFS,TPC &others

Existing Fire CameraFC

Funded, 2016 InstallFC

2016 TPC/Alert funded

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

AlertTahoe Fire Camera Network Topology

FC

–backbone network topology shown

▲

Future Seismometers

FC

FC

UNR

Camino

FC

FC

FC

Seismometers

FC

FC

FC

Slide

Mt.

Diamond

Peak

Fallen

Leaf Lk

Ophir

Peak

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

FC

2016 TPC opportunity

2017 opportunity

FC

Emerald

Bay

Bald Mt.

FC

FC

FC

Mesh Topology=Resiliency

BLM WildlandFire Camera Program

Cold Springs Fire, August 14th, 2015–Discovery

#telepresence

Elephant Fire, Central Nevada –Early Intel, Scale Resources Up Now!

Spooner Lake Fire–Super Scooper Special Forces Equivalent

Homewood

Snow Valley Peak

Hammer Fire—Lighting Hunt

Go to near-IR

Washington Fire, 2nd day! (Watch Fire Behavior)

2 fer!

Lake Village

Scout Peak

July 30th, 2015

(1) Incident Command

(3) Machine Vision

(2) Crowd Sourcing

“Live View”

NOAA Reno Camera in “Rover 360°” Mode

–implementation, Summer 2016

Machine Vision Algorithm underway, Raul Rojas (UNR)

Jordan Valley, OR Fire, 104 miles away!

Fire Growth Model- 6 Hour Burn

Wifire (UC San Diego, SDSC) Use Case: Fire Growth

•Goal: Simulate fire growth in southern California and Lake Tahoe area•Run FARSITE and Firefly•Inputs:–Landscape (topography, fuel, etc.)–Weather (wind, temperature, humidity, etc.)–Ignition perimeter

•Outputs:–Fire perimeters

Goal: $2M Build Out and 10 year O/MCost: 1.25% of losses,

Angora Ridge Fire, 2007

Angora Ridge Fire, 2007 1% and 3% area,

Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires

private and public effort

King

v.

Tahoe

Think Different !

Genghis Khan

Silver Service, USS Idaho

Washington Fire

Jobs Ranch Incident

King Incident

Logan Creek&Mallard Incident

King Holdover Incident

4th ofJuly Incident

Kahle Meadows Incident

Lake Village Incident

Scout Peak Incident

Caughlin Incident

Spooner Lake Incident

Red Rocks Incident

AlertTahoe

BLM Fire Camera Program

Midas Incident

Jordan Valley Fire

Elephant Fire

Boulder Incident

Midas 2 Incident

PX Ranch Incident

Bob Incident

Cold Springs Fire

Cowboy 2 Incident

Waterlog Incident

Thank You !

special thanks to: Paul Petersen (BLM),Mac Heller (USFS),Kit Bailey (USFS)

Questions?

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