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Working Group I of IPCCOverview
Dr. Roxana BojariuLead Author in WG I of AR5 National Meteorological Administration (Bucharest, Romania)
Motivation - the role of WG I of IPCC The Structure of WG I Report of IPCC AR5 Key findings in WG I Report New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC Next steps
Motivation - the role of WG I of IPCC In a changing world we need to speed up the
knowledge generation and transfer to serve society in its mitigations and adaptation efforts.
Decisions in society should be knowledge based.
Science of climate change provides this type of knowledge.
The Structure of WG I Report of IPCC AR514 Chapters covering: climate change observation
(Ch 2, 3, 4, 5); climate change understanding
(Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ); future-projected climate (Ch
11, 12, 13, 14); the Atlas of Regional Change.
Key findings of WG I Report Warming of the climate system is unequivocal -
each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850
From SPM
Key findings of WG I Report
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal - it is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0-700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010
From SPM
Key findings of WG I Report
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal – there are coherent changes in all climate system components
From SPM
Key findings of WG I Report The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have
increased since 1750 due to human activity and their radiative forcing dominates aerosol, solar, volcanic and internal variability (with CO2 providing largest radiative forcing).
Key findings of WG I Report
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
Key findings of WG I Report
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century will continue to increase and is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850−1900 for all scenarios except RCP2.6.
Key findings of WG I Report
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century and virtually certain beyond 2100.
From SPM
Key findings of WG I Report Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
From SPM
New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC Analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP
5) experiments under concentration scenarios (RCPs)
From: http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2011/09/the-cmip5-climate-experiments/
New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC
Ch 11. Near term predictions and projections based on CMIP 5 – requested by the decision makers and adaptation communities;
There are some encouraging evidence from numerical experiments for certain seasonal to decadal predictability (regionally dependent).
From: http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2011/09/the-cmip5-climate-experiments/
New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC
The Atlas of Regional Change (temperature and precipitation changes for 35 regions, using 42 global models under 4 RCPs)
New topics in the WG I Report of IPCC
Examples from the Atlas of Regional Change – you can play around to get projected regional changes at http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas but please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of the likelihood of changes.
Next steps
Assessment Report 6 (AR6) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) will continue to reduce as much as possible and better quantify uncertainties related to physical science basis of climate change.
AR6 has to respond to increase requests for regional and near term information on climate change signal vs. climate variability.
AR6 has to find improved approaches to couple climate with impact and adaptation information.
Thank you!
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