Unifying principles for modelling, Brad Evans, ACEAS Grand 2014

Unifying principles for terrestrial ecosystem carbon, water and land-surface modelling

Presentation by Brad Evans

The problem: CO2 is rising

The Ecosystem Modeller seeks to:Generally, understand the effects of CO2 increases on ecosystemsQuantify negative feedbacks – the impact of rising CO2, land surface warming and extreme events on ecosystems

6CO2 + 6H20 C6H12O6 + 6O2

light energy

chlorophyll +nutrients

IPCC Consensus: CO2 Fertilization

WUE

NPPWUE =

GPPET

NPP = GPP - R

N & P

Residential land sink

Complexity of global modelsWhat models don’t currently do well (mostly)…• Ecosystem dynamics generally• Migration• Fire • Logging• Harvesting• Insect outbreaks• Decomposition• Phosphorus cycle• Veg-soil-atmosphere continuum• Land use, land use change and forestry generally

Three unifying principles

1. Observations, Models and Understanding Integration of empirical science and modelling increases scientific understanding of observed phenomena.

2. Transparency, Evaluation, Confidence Reproducible models, transparently evaluated against empirical data, enhances community confidence in their efficacy.

3. Innovation, Standards, Simplicity Continuous technical innovation, adaptation of standards and mitigating against unnecessary complexity underpins simplicity.

The viscous observation – model – policy cycle

(1) MORE Observations

(2) BETTER models are developed

(3) Models evaluated

against observations

(4) EVEN BETTER Models

(5) BETTER Policy

This project is supported by the Australian National Data Service (ANDS). ANDS is supported by the Australian Government through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy Program and the Education Investment Fund (EIF) Super Science Initiative. For more information visit the ANDS website ands.org.au and Research Data Australia services.ands.org.au.