Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Quality

Randy Lehr, Ph.D.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Quality

Climate Change Impacts Wetter Warmer

Species Distributions

Brook Trout Habitat, WICCIStratification, Lake Owen

Altered Hydrology

Slide 28

Fig. 4.28, p. 90

Precipitation

Precipitationto ocean

Evaporation

EvaporationFromocean

Surface runoff(rapid)

Ocean storage

Condensation

Transpiration

Rain clouds

Infiltration andPercolation

Transpirationfrom plants

Groundwater movement (slow)

Groundwater movement (slow)

RunoffRunoffSurface runoff (rapid)Surface runoff (rapid)

Precipitation

Stressor Interactions

Wetter = More nutrients?

Warmer = Changes in species dominance?

Vulnerability 1950 to 2006, WICCI

Temperature Rainfall

Social-Environmental Considerations

Precipitation and Infrastructure Design

Current Guidance7.31 inches (5.73-9.20)

Anticipated Future~ 20% increase over current

Infrastructure “Hotspots”

Percent DifferenceHigh 101

Low 35

Land Use Legacies

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, USDA, USGS,AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GISUser Community

Percent Open Land81 - 10061 - 8041 - 6021 - 400 - 20

Land Use and Climate Change Increased Food Demand

– 50%-110% increase in production by 2050

0%20%40%60%80%90%

% Agriculture

NLCD, 2011

Fishery Resource – Brook Trout

• Ecological response to warming waters has management implications

• Secondary social response is currently unstudied, but may also have significant impacts on conservation work

Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty

How willing would you be to…?

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0Avg. Response

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Percent of Total Responses

Modify the management of your property toprotect the quality of Lake Owen?

Support efforts to protect the ecologicalhealth of Lake Owen if it limited your curre..

Attend educational events regarding themanagement of Lake Owen?

Volunteer with projects to improve thequality of Lake Owen?

Pay an increase in taxes or fees to helpprotect the quality of Lake Owen?

Financially support the ongoing protectionand restoration of Lake Owen if you move..

2.78

2.28

2.96

3.00

3.04

2.44

How willing would you be to…?

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0Avg. Response

2.78

2.28

2.96

3.00

3.04

2.44

Willingness ScaleExtremely willingSomewhat willingSomewhat unwillingExtremely unwilling

Questions? Contact Info:

Randy Lehr, Ph.D.rlehr@northland.edu715-682-1261