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Calvin Quek, based in Beijing, China, is head of Greenpeace East Asia’s Sustainable Finance Program and leads its engagement of the financial community. Calvin served as the first Executive Director of the Beijing Energy Network, and is currently a Board Member of the China Carbon Forum. Prior to joining Greenpeace, he was with Citigroup for about a decade, with the investment research team in Singapore, and led Citigroup Singapore’s CSR & Volunteerism committee in 2008. Calvin has an MBA from Peking University, and an MSc in Wealth Management from Singapore Management University. China’s infamous smoggy skies spurred the government into action that has made waves in both domestic heavy industry and global energy markets. This has brought new opportunities & risks in a variety of sectors. In this talk, Calvin speaks on these energy trends that China’s war on pollution has instigated, and the implications for investors.
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China’s War on Air Pollution Calvin Quek & Enrique Fang, Greenpeace In Collaboration with Green Initiatives, at Haworth, Shanghai 11.11.2014
Global PM 2.5 levels
PM 2.5 and Public Health
Source of Air Pollu;on
Ranking Q3 2014
Beijing PM 2.5 levels
Top 10 most polluted ci;es (AQI)
Hebei
Overcapacity in China
Shanghai’s Performance
Where direc;on does it come from?
Top 10 Ci;es with PM 2.5 level increase
A most unfortunate situa;on
A shiSing economic landscape
2014 Jan to Sept Hebei: 2.9 % down Jiangsu 9.3% up
Long Term
Sept 12, 2013: The Massive Ac;on Plan
Reduce PM 2.5 levels in the following regions, from 2012 levels by 2017 a.) "Jing-‐Jin-‐Ji" region (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei): -‐ 25% drop b.) Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) -‐ 20% drop c.) Pearl River Delta region (Guangdong) -‐ 15% drop
Regional Plan: Sept 17th 2013
NaAonal Plan: Sept 12th 2013
Beijing Plan: Sept 17th 2013 Tianjin Plan: Sept 28th 2013
Hebei Plan: Sept 6th 2013
6 key facets
-‐ AdministraAve -‐ Top Down -‐ Industrial Reform
-‐ LegislaAve -‐ BoPom Up -‐ Regulatory Reform
It doesn’t make cents to be in heavy industry
It’s not just about pollu;on
(2016 – 2020)
13th Five Year Plan
It’s Pollu;on + Reform
(2011 – 2015) (2013 – 2017)
aka Humankind’s last hope
Beijing’s Plan
Beijing Air Pollu;on Plan
Beijing Air Pollu;on Ac;on Tasks
6. Eliminate coal burning from all boilers in all 6 districts By 2013, modify 2100蒸 (approx 1.47GW) of coal fired boilers By 2014, modify 2200蒸 (approx 1.54GW) of coal fired boilers By 2015, modify 600蒸 (approx 0.4GW) of coal fired boilers In total, reduce coal consump;on by 12 million tons Responsible party: District heads of Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai, Shijing Hill, and the head of Beijing EPB
Coal Cuts
2012 Coal ConsumpAon by Province/City (millions tons)
Source: China data: Chinese Bureau of Sta;s;cs Yearbook 2013 Interna;onal data: US Energy Informa;on Administra;on
Assuming GDP grows at 2/3 speed of previous 5-‐years average GDP growth rate
Tackling Air Pollu;on is leading to broader structural shiSs in global coal energy markets
Global Implica;ons
6 key facets
-‐ AdministraAve -‐ Top Down -‐ Industrial Reform
-‐ LegislaAve -‐ BoPom Up -‐ Regulatory Reform
Public Disclosure
Public Disclosure
Accountability
Emergency Response Protocols
So it’s all good news right?
Wrong..
• East to West Pollu;on Transfer • Focus is on richer, coastal provinces • Environmental Ministry is s;ll weak • Environmental laws are s;ll weak • Air Pollu;on Plan has faced many issues and headwinds
• There is no clear economic plan B • Energy reform s;ll stalling • What about water? What about carbon emissions?
• Make no mistake – China is coal and carbon emissions king
Resources
• Shanghai Air Pollu;on Plan: hip://www.envir.gov.cn/info/2013/10/20131018001.pdf
• Jiangsu Air Pollu;on Plan: hip://www.js.gov.cn/jsgov/tj/bgt/201401/t20140123_419410.html
• IPE Air Pollu;on Map: hip://www.ipe.org.cn/Pollu;onMapApp_DownLoad.aspx
• Greenpeace wechat: 绿色和平
Thank You Calvin Quek Calvin.quek@greenpeace.org Enrique Fang Fang.yuan@greenpeace.org
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