Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation

Human-Computer Interaction, Universität HamburgProf. Dr. Frank Steinicke

Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation Elephants do not eat mice, but cheetahs eat gnus

It's not the BIG …

… that eats the SMALL,

… but it's the FAST

that eats the SLOW!

censored

Speed of Innovation?

~20 years~5050 days ~250 month

„Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.“

Frederick Phillips Brooks, Jr.

Apple Computer, Inc., 1984

Xerox PARC, Xerox Palo, 1973

William English & Douglas C. Engelbart, 1968

Rainer Mallebrein (Telefunken): Rollkugel , 1968

12

Invention Refinement & Augmentation TractionTime

W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008

15-25 years

Long Nose

13

Invention Refinement & Augmentation TractionTime

W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008

15-25 years

Gro

wth

of a

n id

ea

Long Nose

14

Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction

Gro

wth

of a

n id

ea

Time

Radar

W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008

15-25 years

Long Nose

16

Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction

Gro

wth

of a

n id

ea

Time

Radar

W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008

15-25 years

Incremental Innovation

Incremental Innovation15-25 years of incremental improvements

Long Nose

18

Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction

Gro

wth

of a

n id

ea

Time

Radar

W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008

15-25 years

Incremental Innovation

?

Ambalappuzha Sri Krishna Temple

Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam

Legend of Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam

32 64 128

32 64 128

256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 32868

64K 128K 256K 512K 1M

32 64 128

256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 32868

64K 128K 256K 512K 1M 2M 4M 8M

16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1G 2G

4G 8G 16G 32G 64G 128G 256G 512G

1T 2T 4T 8T 16T 32T 64T 128T

256T 512T 1P 2P 4P 8P 16P 32P

64P 128P 256P 512P 1E 2E 4E 8E

Legend of Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam

Exponential GrowthExample

26W.A. Wagenaar, S.D. Sagaria: Misperception of exponential growth, Perception & Psychophysics, 1975

Year # index

1971 2,300

1972 3,500

1974 4,500

1976 8,500

1978 29,000

• Group 1: How large will the index be in 1989? • Group 2: In which year will the index surpass 275,000?

27

Gordon E. Moore“With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a single silicon chip.”

Reliability

28

TIME: The Year Man Becomes Immortal, 2011

Radar

Stock chart: Eastman Kodak Company

Steven J. Sasson: Portable all electronic still camera, 1975

Digital ImagesImplications

35photo

scanner printer

photo copies

Digital ImagesImplications

36

Digital MusicImplications

37audio CD

CD reader CD writer

CD copies

Digital MusicImplications

38

Digital FabricationImplications

39

physical objects

3D scanner 3D printer

physical copies

Digital FabricationImplications

40

Disruptive InnovationResult of ~20 years of Incremental Innovation

43

Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction

Gro

wth

of a

n id

ea

Time

Radar

W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008

15-25 years

Incremental Innovation Dis

rupt

ive

Inno

vatio

n

Exponential Innovation

Exponential InnovationTo avoid death, we should focus on incremental innovation by refining existing technologies, as much as on disruptive innovation by novel creation and research.

This ability is at the heart of exponential innovation.

44

Human-Computer InteractionUniversität Hamburg

informatikdie zukunft

Human-Computer InteractionUniversität Hamburg

Thanks!

Human-Computer InteractionUniversität Hamburg

Questions?Discussion!