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2.008x
Conclusion …and the Future of
Manufacturing
MIT 2.008x
Prof. John Hart Department of Mechanical EngineeringLab for Manufacturing and Productivity
at MIT
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Agenda§ Recap of 2.008x§ Manufacturing is a dynamic
global ecosystem§ What is the future of
manufacturing?§ What is your future in
Manufacturing?
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§ Machining§ Injection molding§ Thermoforming§ Sheetmetal forming§ Casting§ Additive manufacturing
§ Forging§ Coatings§ Printing (2D)§ Semiconductors§ …
§ Robotics
§ Mechanical fits§ Joining (e.g.,
welding, adhesives)§ Material handling
and automation
§ Quality and variation§ Cost§ Sustainability
§ Systems§ Metrology§ Logistics and sourcing
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Excerpt from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRwa8msCbP0
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Excerpt from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA5tkcrkMVASee also the ‘Scorpion’ (solder paste jetting): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ-Kq2Gkm5Y
High-speed pick-and-place
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- For each unit process, what determines each attribute?- How can we improve any or all? (all are coupled!) - What is “good enough”? Who cares and why?
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Process-shape compatibility
Figure 14.5, M.F. Ashby, Materials Selection in Mechanical Design
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Conclusion:
2 Manufacturing is a dynamic global
ecosystem
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Front-facing camera
Faceplate
Screen (flipped)
Camera Battery
Logic board
Housing
iPhone 6 chassis assembly
Modified from: https://d3nevzfk7ii3be.cloudfront.net/igi/DSCkX6EfcARJYOHa.hug
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2.008xSilicon wafers
Inertial sensors
Tested chips
iPhone
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From http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20101119000102&cid=1102
Foxconn's largest factory worldwide is in Longhua, Shenzhen, where hundreds of thousands of workers (varying counts include 230,000, 300,000, and 450,000) are employed… sometimes referred to as “Foxconn City”. Covering about 1.16 square miles (3 square km), it includes 15 factories, worker dormitories, a swimming pool, a fire brigade, its own television network (Foxconn TV), and a city centre with a grocery store, bank, restaurants, bookstore, and hospital.
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http://joi.ito.com/weblog/2014/09/01/shenzhen-trip-r.htmlhttp://www.ted.com/talks/joi_ito_want_to_innovate_become_a_now_ist#t-20889
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Quantity of loaded freight in international
maritime trade from 1970 to 2014 (million tons)
2,605
9,842
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Qua
ntity
in m
illio
n to
ns lo
aded
Data from http://www.statista.com/statistics/234698/loaded-freight-in-international-maritime-trade-since-1970/
Port of Oakland, CA (December 2014)
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From http://acetool.commerce.gov/labor-costs
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/25/technology/robotica-cheaper-robots-fewer-workers.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966esia
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Conclusion:
3 What is the future of manufacturing?
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WhatdoesMITfacultythink?
MIT Perspectives
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Advanced Manufacturing: value at scale
2.008x66 B.P. Conner et al. / Additive Manufacturing 1–4 (2014) 64–76
Fig. 2. Three axis model of manufactured products.
single part is produced, tooling and fixturing must be fabricatedresulting in both lead times of weeks or even months and signif-icant investment in tooling costs [8]. Examples of tooling andfixturing include dies for injection molding of plastics or stamp-ing dies for automotive sheet panels. Tooling and fixturing canbe expensive but the costs are amortized over total units of partsproduced (often in millions). The business model for mass man-ufacturing is well established and is primarily cost driven tolower the unit cost of each part and is not value driven (i.e.,lighter weight, greater thermal conduction, anatomical fit, etc.)with higher customization and complexity of each part.
It is very clear that with the existing global pervasivenessof capital equipment for mass manufacturing as well as estab-lished business models and cost structure, products within thisregion should not be fabricated using additive manufacturingdue to their limited complexity and customization. However, asshown in Region 2 there is an opportunity to use AM to fab-ricate the tooling for conventional mass manufacturing whichreduces the lead-time associated with tooling for mass manu-facturing.
2.2. Region 2: manufacturing of the few
This region describes products with limited complexity andcustomization but also in low production volumes. There is nota specific number to distinguish between low and high volume.The Center for Automotive Research defined 30,000 vehiclesper year as the upper bound for low volume production of auto-mobiles [6]. However, in the aerospace sector it is different.In June 2008, the production of F/A-18 Super Hornets stoodat 42 aircraft per year. At that time, its replacement, the F-35Lightning II, was projected to reach 230 aircraft per year by2016 [7]. While such a production volume would not be consid-ered mass manufacturing from an automotive industry or from aconsumer products’ standpoint, for a manned aerospace fighter
this is a large enough volume that it would impact the selec-tion of manufacturing processes and tooling. When using themodel, it is best advised to use the low or high volume definitionthat best suits the industry. For the purpose of this discussion,10,000 parts per year or less is arbitrarily used for regions ofthe map defined as low volume. Tooling and fixturing costsare substantial for low volume production [8]. The lead timesfor tooling and fixturing are often longer than the time to fab-ricate the product itself. Examples of products in this regionwould include product prototypes subsequently mass manufac-tured, high value parts for low volume applications like shipsor satellites, and tooling and fixturing. When fabricated throughconventional processes, complexity is minimized due to the limi-tations of conventional manufacturing processes and/or the needto reduce the number of fabrication steps in order to minimizecost.
The genesis of additive manufacturing occurred in this regionwith the concept of rapid prototyping. The first 3D printingtechnology, stereolithography (a type of vat photopolymeriza-tion), was invented, in part, to support the creation of visualprototypes to support design and marketing. As 3D printingprocesses became more precise (enabling tighter tolerancesfor nesting of parts) and printing materials became strongerand more durable, rapid prototyping evolved beyond visualprototyping to include functional prototypes that can be usedin fully functioning mechanical systems [9]. By eliminatingthe need for tooling and fixturing, these printed prototypesare more cost effective and take far less time (hence “rapid”)than conventionally manufactured prototypes. This reducestime-to-market while ensuring the desired final product func-tionality.
Certainly if one can make functional prototypes using AM,one can also have direct part production. For low volumeproduction of products with minimal part complexity and cus-tomization, the use of AM results in lower cost and reduced leadtimes when compared to conventional methods. For example,Hopkinson and Dickens [10] analyzed the costs of fabricationof a small plastic lever by additive laser sintering, a powderbed fusion technology and conventional injection molding. Thecost model was further refined by Ruffo et al. [11]. Both stud-ies showed that for a production volume less than about 10,000parts, a lower unit cost is realized using laser sintering whencompared to injection molding.
As noted earlier, AM can be used to fabricate tooling and fix-turing for conventional manufacturing processes. By using AM,tooling and fixturing can be more affordable and faster thanconventional means. For example, a method of metal castinginvolves the use of sand for mold walls and cores. Convention-ally, this process is labor intensive and time consuming. A pattern(representative of the part) is fabricated and used to shape thesand mold. The patterns are permanent and must be stored forfuture use. Various pathways and reservoirs for the flow of metalare formed in the sand by hand. Besides being costly, this methodof fabrication limits the design of certain final part geometries.3D binder jetting of sand is being used to fabricate molds andcores eliminating the need for patterns and reducing labor costs[12].
Cube chart from Conner et al. Additive Manufacturing, 2014
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New robotics and augmented workers
Kiva Systems / Amazon Robotics
Rethink Robotics
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/04/bmw-3d-prints-new-thumbs-for-factory-workersAlso see: http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-
mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-tools-turn-manufacturing-workers-into-robo-employees-1465351321
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9KPJlA5yds
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http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/micro-nanosystems/docs/fof-beyond-2013-workshop/westkaemper-manufuture_en.pdf
Industry 1.0 Industry 2.0 Industry 3.0 Industry 4.0
From http://saphanatutorial.com/industry-4-0/
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Advanced MaterialsAdvanced batteries (Tesla,
Panasonic, 24M, others)
3D particles for drug delivery (Liquidia)
Carbon nanotube composites and wires (Nanocomp, Cambridge, others)
Quantum dots in LEDs and TVs (QDVision, Sony, LG, others)
High-strength aluminum (Alcoa)
Carbon fiber composites (Boeing)
http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/alcoa-signs-largest-ever-deal-with-boeing-20140911http://www.kinematics.com/about/newsletterarticleboeingandthe787.php
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Waste, sustainability, and the life cycle…
http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/22/11991440/eri-e-waste-electronics-recycling-nyc-gadget-trash?goal=0_997ed6f472-378db09ae5-153914201&mc_cid=378db09ae5&mc_eid=80eb35dc6c
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How do we envision the future of manufacturing?
§ Understand the drivers (pulls) for more and better manufacturing, i.e., more people and limited resources, aging population, labor cost, energy supply/cost, growth in air travel, etc…
§ Project manufacturing-related technology trends (e.g., AM, robotics, software) and their intersections.
§ Forecast how the above will influence how we design and make products in the future, and how business models will evolve.
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Conclusion:
4 What is your future in manufacturing?
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How can your career influence manufacturing (and vice-versa)?§ Work for a company in product design, engineering, or
manufacturing.§ Take part in a startup working anywhere along the design and
manufacturing value chain.§ Create new materials to be manufactured.§ Advise others on how to improve their manufacturing
operations.§ Invent new and/or improved manufacturing processes.§ Help translate designs to scale (e.g., Bolt, Dragon, PCH).§ Work globally to grow the manufacturing infrastructure and
ecosystem.§ …and more!
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Some further readingIBM: The New Software-Defined Supply Chain§ http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/software-defined-supply-
chain/
Deloitte University Press: The Future of Manufacturing§ http://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/future-of-
manufacturing.html
National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (USA)§ http://manufacturing.gov
Media Sources§ The Economist, e.g.,
§ http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21637355-freelance-workers-available-moments-notice-will-reshape-nature-companies-and
§ http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety
§ Wall Street Journal, MIT Technology Review, BBC, New York Times§ Spencer Wright’s Blog and Newsletter, ‘The Prepared’
§ http://pencerw.com/the-prepared/§ Blogs by companies including GE, Bolt, Fictiv, PCH, …
URLs active as of June 29, 2016
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The end.
2.008xReferences1 Conclusion
MIT dome in LEGO: photo by Maia Weinstock © MIT.
Industrial smoke stack: photo © Verena J. Matthew on 123rf.com
Video excerpt of hot open die forging: Video Copyright © 2010 Kihlberg Steel AB.
Video excerpt of a high speed pick and place machine © 2016 Essemtec Switzerland
Image of Essemtec Paraquda pick and place machine © 2016 EFY Group
Tabular representation of process cababilities: Figure 14.5 from "Materials Selection in Mechanical Design (4th Edition)" by Michael Ashby; Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann; Copyright © 2016 Knovel Corporation. All rights reserved.
2 Global Ecosystem
iPhone 6: Image © 2000-2016 GSMArena.com
iPhone 6 exploded view © 2016 iFixit
Screenshot of Boston Globe article from November 15, 2015 © 2016 Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC
Analog Devices Inc location on Google Maps, Massachusetts: Photo © Google, Inc.
2.008xReferencesAnalog Devices Satellite/Earth view: Photo © Google, Inc.
Map of the world outlining the shipment of iPhone components: Image by David Niblack, Imagebase.net.
Google map of Shenzhen China: Photo © Google, Inc.
Article Photo by Joi Ito on Flickr. (CC BY) 2.0
Foxconn facility: Photo © RouterUnlock.com
Foxconn factory, New York Times article Photo by Thomas Lee © 2016 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved
Image of Sony Xperia screens by Joi Ito on Flickr. (CC BY) 2.0
Paragraph excerpt: Content by Joi Ito. (CC BY) 4.
Port of Oakland CA in December 2014 © John Hart
Labor cost indexed to cost of labor in 2000 for select countries: Image from the United States Department of Commerce. This work is in the public domain.
Screen shot of the New York Times article on increasing use of robots from April 24, 2015: Article © 2016 The New York Times Company
2.008xReferencesScreenshot of BBC article regarding Foxconn's venture into robotics, May 25, 2016: Image Copyright © 2016 BBC.
3 Future of Manufacturing
Interview with David E Hart © David E Hardt 2016. Used with permission.
Interview with Larissa Nietner © Larissa Nietner 2016. Used with permission.
Interview with Krystyn Van Vliet © Krystyn Van Vliet 2016. Used with permission.
Interview with Elliot Owen © Elliot Owen 2016. Used with permission.
Glass of water: Image © 2016 - Emergency Preparedness.org
Water desalination facility Photo © F.D.W.A. All Rights reserved.
Tesla: Photo © 2016 Hearst Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
iPhone: Image © Apple Inc.
Potato chip bag: Image on Foolishgadgets.com
Frito-Lay chip production: Photo by Peter Desilva of the New York Times. © 2016 The New York Times Company.
DePuy ASR hip implant: Image © DePuy Synthes 2014-2016. All rights reserved.
2.008xReferencesHip replacement implant schematic: Image Copyright ©1995-2016 by the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.
Three axis model of manufacturing space/products (Figure 2) and cost of manufactured product as a function of complexity, traditional vs additive manufacutring (Figure 6) from "Making sense of 3-D printing: Creating a map of additive manufacturing products and services" by Conner, et al., Additive Manufacturing (2014). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors
X-ray of child airway and 3D printed airway and stent: Figure 1 from Title: Bioresorbable Airway Splint Created with a Three-Dimensional Printer; Authors: David A. Zopf, Scott J. Hollister, Marc E. Nelson, Richard G. Ohye, Glenn E. Green; Journal: New England Journal of Medicine; Volume: 368; Issue: 21; Year: May 2013; Pages: 2043-2045; Copyright © 2016 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved.
Google Project Ara scatter phone components: Photo © Google, Inc.
Google Ara phone: Photo © 2016 AOL Inc. All rights reserved.
GE leap fuel nozzle picture Copyright © 2016 Penton
Airbus group bracket EOS AM part: Image © 2016 Business Wire
Rethink Robotics Baxter packaging robot: Image © 2016 NPR
Baxter robot features: Image © 2016 MIT Technology Review
2.008xReferencesRobo-Glove designed to assist outer space workers: Photo by NASA.gov. This work is in the public domain.
KIVA Systems robots in inventory warehouse: Photo by Bryan Badgley of DawghausePhotography. © 2016 Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC
Screenshots of BMW's Augmented Reality project video: Video © Copyright BMW AG, Munich, Germany. All rights reserved.
Pictures of BMW's 3D printed power thumb © Copyright BMW AG, Munich, Germany. All rights reserved.
Four phases of industrialization, industry 4.0 graphic: Image © 2016 : saphanatutorial.com, All rights reserved.
ManuFuture-EU 2013 presentation slide 18, learning machines: Images by MANUFUTURE © Copyright 2004 CNR-ITIA. All rights reserved.
Liquidia PRINT drug particles for aerosol dilivery: Image © 2016 American Chemical Society
SONY Bravia TV: Image © 2016 SONY CORPORATION OF AMERICA
2012 Tesla model S: Image © Copyright 2016, SpiderCars, All Rights Reserved
Nanocomp panels of carbon nanotubes Photo © Andrew Maynard, Arizona State University.
2.008xReferencesElectric motor with windings made of carbon nanotubes: Photo © Dr Krzysztof Koziol, Cambridge University.
Alcoa high-strength aluminum production: Photo Copyright © 2016 Alcoa Inc.
Measurement system for a Boeing 787 nose cone: Photo Copyright © 2016 New River Kinematics
Video of waste pickup from iPhone © John Hart
Images of e-cycling facility and quote from site The Verge: Article © 2016 Vox Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Your Future in Manufacturing
Picture of 2.008 Yo-yo expo in Lobby 7 from Fall 2015 © John Hart
Picture of 3D printed MIT dome in Professor Hart's hands © John Hart
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