A System Dynamics Approach for Aiding Effects-based Operations Planning

INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO DE AERONÁUTICA

A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR AIDING EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS PLANNING

José Carlos de Melo JúniorMischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain

Ana Lucia Pegetti

The environment in which military operations occur have changed.

complexity

uncertainty

58,209 153,303 $168 BILLIONDEATHS WOUNDED COSTS OF THE WAR

EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS: THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Smith, Edward

“ The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001

fundamentally changed our security environment. The

system of strategic deterrence in place since the beginning of the Cold War visibly collapsed.

Probability of Success = MEANS X WILL²

GREAT MEANS

LIMITED WILL

LIMITED MEANS

GREAT WILL

Effects

Based

Operations

COGNITIVE Domain1

INFORMATION Domain2

PHYSICAL Domain3

Shaping Behaviour: Operations in the Cognitive Domain.

Bounded Rationality

dynamiccomplexityreal worldperformance

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Reactive short-term actions may trigger

side effects that result in undesired, and

sometimes long-term irreversible

consequences.

How to overcomehuman cognitive

limitations?

System Dynamics Methodology

"People cannot simulate mentally even the simplest possible feedback system, the first-order linear positive feedback.

System dynamics is a perspective and set of conceptual tools that enable us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems.”

John StermanProfessor at MIT

Your Title Here

Four equivalent representations containing the same information

System structures represented by (a) causal loop diagrams and (b) a stock and flow

SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS: A COUNTER-GUERRILLA EXAMPLE

Insurgents300

225

150

75

00 5 10 15 20 25

Time (Week)Insurgents : Only Supression

Insurgents300

225

150

75

00 5 10 15 20 25

Time (Week)Insurgents : Rule JustlyInsurgents : Only Supression

Insurgents300

225

150

75

00 5 10 15 20 25

Time (Week)Insurgents : IntelligenceInsurgents : Rule JustlyInsurgents : Only Supression

17

CONCLUSIONS

Thank You

2004-2007BRAZILIAN AIR FORCE ACADEMYPIRASSUNUNGA-SP

2008-2009NATAL AIR FORCE BASENATAL-RN

2009-2011BELÉM AIR FORCE BASEBELÉM-PA

2012-2015BRAZILIAN AIR FORCE ACADEMYPIRASSUNUNGA-SP

2016-CURRENT AERONAUTICS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGYSÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS-SP

JOSÉ CARLOS DE MELO JÚNIORCAPTAIN AVIATOR

ABOUT ME

• BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN AERONAUTICS• BACHELOR OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

• MASTER’S DEGREE STUDENT

• HELICOPTER PILOT TRAINING

• FLIGHT INSTRUCTOR

https://br.linkedin.com/in/carlosfabmelo@ita.br