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This brief highlights fifteen areas of significant change – technological, economic, political, social and environmental – which will reshape our world over the next 20 years, and discusses some of the potential implications within health care. Individually each of these changes presents major challenges to governments; collectively, they will increase the complexity of the context within which governments will operate and demand new, faster and more flexible approaches to public debate and regulation.
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www.shapingtomorrow.com
12030: a changed worldimplications for public interest
and regulation
Presented by:
Michael JacksonChairman
Shaping Tomorrow
www.shapingtomorrow.com
99
Population imbalances
New metrics, new meaning
Public Interest and Regulation
3D printing – fashion to organs
Shocks and mortgaged futures
Pollution : public health
Aspirations and expectations
Generation effects
Low cost business models
Profiling the personal
Multi-polar world powers
Definition of reality
Smart, digital and trackable
Peakonomics
Power of mobile rising
Climate change/ extreme nature
What changes will shape 2030?
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102030 – a very different world -
summaryWhat’s driving change
Climate change, population imbalances & resource pressures force a rethink
A multi polar world creates new complexity, aspirations and new solutions
New technologies reveal new connections, levels of detail and understanding
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11112030 – a very different worldWhat’s driving change
Embedded intelligence and digital technologies revolutionise where, when and how we do everything
Personalised and on demand solutions abound
Generational differences and debt mountains create new pressures
New metrics bring new priorities and new players
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12Some challenges for
regulatorsFewer and simpler regulations
Simplification + verification rules OK!
Ethical debates need time, trust and transparency
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13Some challenges for
regulatorsThink ahead, or play catch up forever
More interdisciplinary, cross departmental solutions
Who’s responsible when it’s personal?
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14Some challenges for
regulators
New approaches blur boundaries
Bottom up collaboration, not top down control for engagement
Greater variety of care models demands flexibility
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15Some challenges for
regulators
Global solutions and provision need coordinated global controls
Remote everything makes for systems vulnerability
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2626World ecological footprint
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http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080102222813.htm
Thinking abut something familiar
Potentially feeling suicidal
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Profiling the personal
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36Anticipated capabilities – an
overviewRation or revolution?From ‘cure me’ to contracts and incentives?From no frills airlines to no frills care?Quality, cost and complex supply chainsEmbedded intelligence and new levels of analysisPrivacy- what’s that?Cybercrime, terrorism and other systems vulnerabilityTolerance and intolerance rising?No more animal testing?Personalised medicine on demand?Skills shortages and robo-lleagues? (Robot+Colleagues)Ultimate consumer choice and control
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Avoiding a health cost tsunami
Ration or revolution?
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No more free lunch?
From cure me to contracts and incentives?
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You get what you pay for
No frills airlines to no frills care?
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Managing the system
Quality, cost and complex supply chains
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Interactive, personalised health apps
Embedded intelligence and new levels of analysis
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Transparency brings local, personal, instant, quality service
Privacy – what’s that?
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Disasters waiting to happen
Systems vulnerability
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Need to be agile and resilient
Tolerance and intolerance rising?
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Animals get the same rights as humans
No more animal testing?
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4646
http://www.economist.com/node/15543683
Treatment how, when and where I need it
Personalised medicine on demand?
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Talent wars and robot ethics
Skills shortages and robo-leagues
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4848
Whose life is it anyway?
Ultimate consumer choice and control?
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492030 forecastsGlobal collaboration on public interest and regulation will be widespreadIntelligent thinking, using technology and embedded intelligence to best effect, will radically change regulationIntelligent social media will analyse, alert and manage responses between stakeholdersStakeholders will examine actions in the light of public interest implicationsSystems thinking will be the norm within government and between different stakeholdersTransparency and trust have replaced privacy and secrecyPreventative models and personalised care are the national and international normGlobal competition for patients via tourism and telemed/care servicesNo new large hospitals commissionedServices designed, delivered and controlled locally and personally, not nationally
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50Next steps
Develop early warning systemsCreate a regulations roadmap covering the next 15 years‘What If’ scenarios to examine actions, reactions and optionsBack-cast what needs to be done now to stay ahead of the gameMap and characterise the complexity of the interdependent change agentsGenerate a series of parallel case studiesConduct stakeholder surveys on regulations affecting consumer behaviour, demographic shifts, and economic long-term cycles
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