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David Levin President and CEOStephen Laster Chief Digital OfficerAlfred Essa VP, Analytics and R&D
September 1, 2016
The Future of Higher Education: Harnessing Software to Enhance
Learning Outcomes & Support Teaching
© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Discussion topics
3 Implications for Teaching & Learning
2
01 The Future of Higher Education
Future of Higher Education
1 Our Journey from Print to Digital
© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
From Print to Digital: 128-year Journey
K-12, Higher Ed & Professionalbusinesses
~4,800employees
3FROM PRINT TO DIGITAL© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Higher Ed print to digital transition
MHE DIGITAL VS. PRINT BILLINGS MIX %
H1 2015 H1 2016
4FROM PRINT TO DIGITAL© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
5
Mastery Learning
Using data and formative assessment to support Educators in driving to Mastery Learning
5TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
MHE Adaptive leverages significant investment in technology
Growth via investment . . .
200engineers,
etc.
2012DPG
Formed
2016
495engineers,
etc.
$
$180M Investment per Year in Digital
Platforms
And selective tech acquisitions
MHE Adaptive 6FROM PRINT TO DIGITAL© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Learners who have used MHE Adaptive
~5,500,000 ~10,000,000,000Student
interactions
Adaptive platforms leverage MHE reach & scale
Introduction of SmartBook
May 2013 1,500+
adaptive products available
Now
Authors trained to use MHE Adaptive
~4,000
7FROM PRINT TO DIGITAL© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
“Pre-determined” factors drive change in all scenarios
Pressure for ROI
increases
Focus on student
outcomes
Data-driven learning
delivers results
Micro-credentialing
on the rise
Pressure to remove
frictions in system
Learning remains a
social activity
New politicsemerge
K-8 ages &stages
Privacy & compliance
demands grow
Technology impact grows
Content & delivery channels disrupted
Education “wants to be
free”
8FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Three key “uncertainties”
D2C significant or
not
Consumer pays or free
Data is constrained or
unfettered
Crowd-sourcin
g significant or
notTeachers
are barriers
or enablers
of change
K-12 digital
adoption: patchy
vs. tipping point
Education
ecosystem
Note: 1. “Formal education: ages & stages or lifelong and flexible”; and 2. “Future of accreditation” were also identified as uncertainties but were not clustered above
Consumer
Institution
ConvergeFragment Competitive
Oligopoly
The key uncertainties
Buying DecisionTech & Ed Standards Eco-System/Marketplace
9FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
“Uncertainties” frame 3 scenarios
UncertaintyRenewal from
Within
Invaders Unbundle Education
Platform Predominan
ce
Buyer decision
Institution Consumer InstitutionTechnology & education standards Converge Converge Fragment
Eco-System/
Marketplace Competitive Comp > Olig Oligopoly
10
FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
The three scenarios
Big Tech Platforms
Invaders Unbundle EducationRenewal From
Within
Institutions innovate
Lower prices
Academic reformOpen platforms /
standards
Entrepreneurs provide choiceMultiple price
pointsMicro-credentialing
Survival of fittest
Big tech firms dominate
Lower costs
Data-drivenIntegrated platforms
11
FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION
© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Key developments are driving better learning outcomes
Improving LearningOutcomes
DigitalCompetencybased
Personalized
Print Seat-time One-size-fits-all
©2016 McGraw-Hill Education. Confidential and proprietary. Not for redistribution. 12
12
TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
The Route to Mastery: Learners learn in very different ways, in terms of sequence, pace, study habits and more
Cohort #1 achieved
mastery quickly and can move
on to other things
Cohort #2 has taken a little longer
but have achieved masteryCohort #3
never finished. Frustration? Lack of time?
Pre-requisites?
Other factors?
This learner needed over 9
hours to master the objective, but used the
time efficiently. The lack of
horizontal lines shows good,
steady progress
Source: Progress to a single learning objective: MHE 2016
13
TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Power intelligent learning, instruction, authoring: Drive improved outcomes
FocusedInstruction
Content
14
TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Learning science drives our technology, informs our design
15
Meta-Cognitiv
e Theory 1
The Theory
of Delibera
te Practice
2 The
Theory of Fun for
Game Design 3
Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve 4
Learners learn best when they know what they don’t know
Understanding where we are weakest helps us to focus our practice
To truly learn something, learners need to commit it to long-term memory
Learners are most engaged when challenged, but not too challenged
1.Flavell, J. H. "Metacognition and cognitive monitoring: A new area of cognitive-developmental inquiry. “American Pyschologist (1979) 34,906 -911. Print.2. Ericsson, K. Anders, Krampe, Ralf Th., Clemens Tesch - Romer. “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance”. Psychological Review Vol. 100 No. 3 (1993) 363-406. Print3. Ebbinghaus, Herman, Trans. Clara E. Bussenius and Henry A. Ruger Memory: A Contribution to Experimental Psychology, Eastford, CT: Martino Fine Books, 2 – 11. Print 4. Koster, Raph. A Theory of Fun for Game Design. Scottsdale, AZ: Paraglyph Press, Inc., 2005. Print.
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
The art of Learning Science
Improving LearningOutcomes
Standards based approach allows easy extension and customization
McGraw-Hill will continue to invest in building and supporting research based content
Algorithms ensure most appropriate content is served at any moment
Data supports both Instructor, Student and Institution
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
SmartBook highlighting
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Heat maps generate data
Authors see real-time data on the effectiveness of their content so they can
continuously improve it.
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Editing with big data: Notice how the definition of “eardrum” has been clarified and we can document a 5% improvement in results and a 46% reduction in time.BEFORE
Data enables authors to refine their content: a virtuous cycle of improvement
AFTER
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Finding: Patterns emerged that suggest that certain study habits are more effective and possibly predict performance
HIGH PERFORMERS… LOW PERFORMERS…
…studied in chunks of time larger than 15 minutes and avoided studying late into the night
…when they encountered challenges, took time to look through the learning resources before returning to the probes
…were more likely to be generally aware of what they did and didn’t know
…utilized the other sections of the course such as the Reports, Library, and Recharge
…were more likely to begin the course towards the end of the week
…those learners who did not complete the course typically had low levels of accuracy and abandoned the course after less than an hour
… completed less than one-quarter of the course (all learners who made it past 25% of the course ultimately passed)
…were less likely to take the awareness questions seriously
The data provided through the system can be used to improve learner study habits, help them better use their time efficiently and to
inform remediation.
CONCLUSION
What is Learning Science Research?
Exists at the apex of data science and learning theory.
Maximize the impact of our technology & solutions for improving learning outcomes. MHE computer scientists, educational researchers, and statisticians in partnership with leading academics.
GOAL
LEARNING
SCIENCE RESEARC
H COUNCILTHE RESEARC
H
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Current areas of inquiryAlgorithms: Next generation adaptive algorithms based on the best in ALEKS and Learn Smart. Extend cognitive models to include non-cognitive factors such as motivation, confidence, affect, learning strategies, and meta-cognition.
Efficacy Research: Design and implement efficacy research studies which establish the efficacy of MHE’s products and solutions. Rigorous studies would include Randomized Control Trials (RCT) but would also incorporate new statistical techniques such as Propensity Score Matching. Formative Assessment Quality: Apply statistical techniques such as Item Analysis and Item Response Theory (IRT) to evaluate and improve the quality of our formative assessment item banks.
Insights: Advanced interactive visualizations which provide actionable insights to learners and instructors. Key areas include insights into achievement of learning outcomes, enterprise insights which display achievement across multiple course sections, and accreditation reports.
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Learning Research in Action | Retention Analytics
Problem: A significant number of students abandon their Connect courses before the semester ends. These at-risk students can be difficult for instructors to identify on their own.
Solution: A predictive model that pre-emptively identifies at-risk students.
Classifier Predictio
ns
1 0 1
Notebook
Connect DB
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6
Section Data
1 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F60 F1 F2 F3 F4
F5 F61Training data
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F61 F1 F2 F3 F4
F5 F60 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F61
Testing data
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Problem: Which assessments items are effective? How well do they discriminate among learners of different abilities?
Solution: An automated service which examines item quality and flags problematic ones for review and evaluation.
Learning Research in Action | Assessment Quality
©2016 McGraw-Hill Education. Confidential and proprietary. Not for redistribution. 24
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Problem: Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard in establishing efficacy. However, RCTs are expensive, difficult to design and conduct, controversial, and often impractical in the education domain
Solution: Apply a relatively new statistical technique, Propensity Score Matching (PSM), which when designed properly and with large data sets, can achieve similar statistical power and validity as a RCT. At MHE, an important area of research investigation is to use new statistical approaches such as causal modeling and observational studies.
How do we establish that our products and solutions are effective in improving learning
outcomes?
Learning Research in Action | Efficacy Studies
©2016 McGraw-Hill Education. Confidential and proprietary. Not for redistribution. 25
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Improving outcomes whilst enhancing affordability
Traditional Option: Purchase the textbook alone on Amazon for $201
New Option: Purchase Connect for $90, which comes with an adaptive reading experience, an e-book (available to print if the student so chooses), AND the option to purchase a full-color, loose-leaf version of the text for $25. The loose leaf ships to the student free of charge.
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Adaptive delivers for all Higher Education stakeholders
Deeper relationship and feedback with faculty
Direct relationship and feedback from student
Improved teaching outcomes
Enhanced learning feedback loop better focuses instruction
Instructor-student workflow more efficient
Improved student retention rates
Real-time measurable learning outcomes
Real time quality improvement feedback
Better outcomes Better content and
editing
Improved learning outcomes
Adaptive and personalized learning
Lower prices
STUDENTS FACULTY
INSTITUTIONS
AUTHORS
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TEACHING & LEARNING© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
© 2 0 1 6 M c G r a w - H i l l E d u c a t i o n
Thank you
Q&A
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