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REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
TrendsMajor drivers of change in the 21st century
• Demand of agricultural products is expected to rise by 50% from 2013 to 2050
• Demand shifts towards fruits, vegetables, meats and dairy products
• On historic trends, meeting demand growth should not be challenging …
Population growth, income growth and urbanization will push up and change food demand
World
High In
come C
ountries
Low & M
iddle Inco
me Countrie
s
SAS &
SSA
Latin Ameri
ca an
d the C
aribbean
0100200300400
Agricultural output growth and demand pro-jections
1961-2012 2012-2050
%
Will we be able to feed the world by 2050?
2013-20501961-2012
• Yield growth is slowing down
• Competition for land and water resources is intensifying
• Yield growth is hampered by the degradation of natural resources, and spread of transboundary pests and diseases
• Food losses and waste claim a significant proportion of output
• Climate change affects food-insecure regions the most
Will we be able to feed the world by 2050?… but it will likely be challenging
• Low- and middle income countries invest much less relative to the size of agricultural sector
• Also, most investment in R&D for agriculture is concentrated in high-income countries
Insufficient investment in agriculture Agricultural investment is rising, but insufficiently and mostly
concentrated in high income countries
• Around 700 million people are extremely poor today
• Almost 800 million people are chronically hungry and 2 billion suffer micronutrient deficiencies
• Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario more than 600 million people would still be undernourished in 2030…
• ... while overweight and obesity would rise further
Poverty, inequality and food securityHunger and extreme poverty declined globally since the 1990s, but…
• In the coming decades, 200 million jobs will need to be created for young people in sub-Saharan Africa
• Agriculture may still have an important role to play in new job creation
• … and many more along the food chain and through strengthened rural-urban linkages
Employment challenges Agricultural employment shares are declining.
Where will be the jobs for hundreds of millions of youth?
• Large scale input markets and distribution systems are more concentrated
• Food chains are getting longer:- larger ecological footprint- concerns over food quality
• More integrated food systems are strengthening rural-urban linkages and creating new employment opportunities, but also induce:- more migratory flows- feminization of agriculture
Food systems are changingFood production is changing along with retail channels
• Agriculture, forestry and land use contribute one fifth of them
• Dietary transition exacerbates pressure on natural resources
• Climate change is:- reducing nutrient content of crops- intensifying natural disasters- enhancing risk of foodborne
diseases and transboundary pests and diseases
Business as usual is not an option Global greenhouse gas emissions are on the rise
ChallengesGlobal challenges facing food and agriculture
• Sustainably improving agricultural productivity to meet increasing demand
• Ensuring a sustainable natural resource base
• Addressing climate change and intensification of natural hazards
• Preventing transboundary and emerging agriculture and food system threats
“Business as usual” cannot be an option: transformative changes are needed
Challenges for food stability and availability
• Eradicating extreme poverty and reducing inequality
• Ending hunger and all forms of malnutrition
• Improving income earning opportunities in rural areas and addressing the root causes of migration
• Building resilience to protracted crises, disasters and conflicts
Challenges for access and utilization
• Making food systems more efficient, inclusive and resilient
• Addressing the need for coherent and effective national and international governance
Systemic challenges
The Report is available at www.fao.org/3/a-i6583e.pdf
CONTACT
Global Perspectives Studieswww.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies
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