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Metrics for Agricultural Transformation: Update on Recent and Ongoing Developments April 19, 2013 Washington, DC
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The Challenges of a Decision-Oriented, Multi-Sectoral Index
Tony Simons, Keith Shepherd, Tor Vagen, Ravi Prabhu, Anja Gassner and Mike Norton-Griffiths
World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Kenya
1. Why is ATI needed?
2. Current State of Play
3. Evidence and Understanding
4. Agriculture - alone or with what?
5. Food for thought on ATI next steps
Decision-Oriented, Multi-sectoral Index
What is our collective dream for sustainable agriculture? and in how many generations?
1. Why is ATI needed? The justification:
• Agriculture is largest employer in the world • Largest single landuse in the world • Largest threat to natural ecosystems/natural capital • Human enterprise most vulnerable to climate change
• Since 1980, when sustainability term emerged, it has been aspirational but not very operational (why/what are okay - but how/where are not okay)
• Theory of Change for sustainability is vague, fluffy • Largely self-defined and self-monitored • Institutionalised by certifying bodies (which developing country has?) • Poor alignment of differentiated and unsustained boutique projects
Total World GDP = $72 trillion p.a. Agriculture GDP = $4.2 trillion p.a.
Economic costs of GHG emissions, loss of natural resources, loss of nature-based services such as carbon storage by forests, climate change
$4.7 trillion top 100 externalities
Latest TEEB Study released 15 April 2013
Nutrient loss (%) Nutrient loss (%) Nutrient loss (%)
Shifting agriculture (slash-and-burn)
Overall Rank
Sector Region Cost to Natural Capital
US$ billion
Revenue US$ billion
Impact Ratio
2 Cattle Ranching South America
312.1 16.6 18.7
4 Wheat Farming Southern Asia
214.4 31.8 6.7
13 Rice Farming North Africa
82.3 1.2 68.0
Top 100 Externalities of Business
1. Why is ATI needed? (cont.)
The competition:
• International Institute for Sustainable Development recorded 894 indicator initiatives for the monitoring of sustainable development (IISD, 2010)
• Unilever have been incorporating it in their supply chains since 1998
• Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (Nestle, DANONE, Unilever) in 2002
• Scientific Journal exists - Ecological Indicators (Elselvier)
• World Business Council on Sustainable Development (2000)
Unilever (since 1998)
1. Unilever Sustainable Agriculture Code (2010) (based on version 1 2006) - self-assessment tool for producers and suppliers - about good agricultural practices by producers
10 sustainability indicators developed through stakeholder consultation:
- soil fertility and health, soil loss, nutrients, pest management, biodiversity, product value, energy, water, social capital and local economy
Good in theory but they largely failed in Unilever’s own managers eyes as: Not responsive to change (can’t see the difference) Overly complex Too many correlated indicators Hard to compare across different contexts Hard to communicate with consumers But have helped drive changes in supplier behaviour (even more if incentives)
2. Upcoming Sustainable Supply Chain Guidelines - sustainable agriculture metrics in their supply chains
Alcohol Chicken
Ice-cream
Pet Food
Baby Food Chocolate Jams Roots and Tubers
Baked Goods Dairy Products Juices Shellfish
Beef Eggs Lamb Soda
Canned Soup Fish Margarines, oils Sugar
Cereal Goods Fruit Nuts Vegetables
Walmart Sustainable Supply Initiative ($380 billion p.a.)
The ‘Sustainable Agriculture’ indicator evaluates developed and developing countries support for sustainable agriculture. It captures a snapshot view of three dimensions required to ensure populations do not go hungry: (1) Sufficiency of financial commitment to agriculture (budgets, aid).
(2) Appropriateness of policies to support low input, climate-resilient sustainable agriculture. (3) women’s access to land.
ActionAid (2010)
http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/scorecard.pdf
GUESS THE TOP 3 COUNTRIES
ReviewoftheEvidenceonIndicators,MetricsandMonitoringSystems
Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID)
Conducted by the CGIAR Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems
Coordinated by the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
Authors: Keith D Shepherd1, Andrew Farrow2, Claudia Ringler3, Anja Gassner1, Devra Jarvis4
1 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) 2 Consultant for World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) 3 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 4 Bioversity International
2. Current State of Play
103 monitoring initiatives reviewed on sustainable intensification of agriculture (ICRAF/DFID)
Common Weaknesses:
• Lack of conceptual framework • Absence of clearly defined objectives of monitoring • Undefined target geography or demography • Inadequate scale hierarchy • Poor sampling theory • Low ability to disaggregate (gender) • Lack integration of biophysical and socio-economic • Poor sample strata • Lack of consistency in measurement protocols • Low attribution of interventions to outcomes (means to end Framework) • Little consideration of uncertainty • No trade-off analyses • Data sharing agreements wanting • No cost-effectiveness analysis of monitoring • Few initiatives sustained over time (institutional sustainability)
Purpose of Measurement
Then we studied selected group of 24 initiatives
None had explicit purpose to take decisions
Unit of Analysis
Frequency of Measurement
most were Quick and Dirty
a few were Slow and Clean
none were Quick and Clean
Acknowledgement must avoid Slow and Dirty
but little distinction between
“Need to know” and “Nice to know”
3. Evidence and Understanding
• Focus on populations not individuals
• Interventions designed on prevalence & incidence of problems/risks
• Use standardised protocols
• Operational surveillance systems assume status and risk are
continuous processes
Allow investment choices to be prioritised between issues such as:
Lung cancer HIV/AIDS Malnourishment Road safety
Public Health
Public Health Systems
Cardiovascular disease
Utilise research that shows three risk factors account 75% of heart disease
Smoking High blood pressure Cholesterol
focus on these for interventions and monitoring
Basic problem
There is a lack of coherent and rigorous sampling and assessment frameworks that enable comparison of data (i.e. meta-studies) across a wide range of environmental conditions ... and scales
Quantification and systematic monitoring are essential to understand and manage trade-offs among productivity and ecosystem services, and know where are the tipping points
Surveillance science Land health metrics
Consistent field protocol
Soil spectroscopy Coupling with remote sensing Prevalence, Risk factors, Digital mapping
Sentinel sites Randomized sampling schemes
Soil maps generally static Coarse resolution Don’t reflect functional properties of the soil
Ethiopia soil map
GeoScience
But what does it mean? and how can we use it?
10km
Soil Carbon (30m x 30m)
Can guide better decisions
Co-locate and integrate demographic and socio-economic data Health Sector leads (Indepth Network)
Adjudicated under the Land Adjudication Act CAP 284 1968, intensive smallholder cultivation with clear freehold title
Tenure effects on land productivity and investment
Un-adjudicated land:
no firm legal title
Norton-Griffith, in preparation
38
Overall, the economic and environmental gains from secure tenure are substantial …..
Impact Unadj Freehold Tenure
Effect
Net Returns to Land ($ ha-1 y-1) $198 $397 2.0
Tree Crops (ha km2) 2.3 12.9 5.6
Plantations and Woodlots (ha km2) 3.1 12.7 4.1
Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5
Agricultural Intensity 1983 2013
The development trajectory of unadjudicated is 40 years behind that of adjudicated land
Natural Forest
4.1 billion ha
Crop Land
1.5 billion ha
Tree Plantations
0.3 billion ha
Pasture & Rangelands
3.4 billion ha
Wetlands
1.3 billion ha
Deserts
1.9 billion ha
Natural Forest
4.1 billion ha
Crop Land
1.5 billion ha
Pasture & Rangelands
3.4 billion ha
Wetlands
1.3 billion ha
Deserts
1.9 billion ha
4. Agriculture – alone or with what?
Urban Areas
Natural Forest
4.1 billion ha
Crop Land
1.5 billion ha
Pasture & Rangelands
3.4 billion ha
Wetlands
1.3 billion ha
Deserts
1.9 billion ha
Global Land Area - proportional
Agriculture
Forestry
Environment
What is best way to optimise goals?
• Productivity/Income • Sequestration/Mitigation • Reduced emissions • Resilience/Adaptation • Environmental Goods/Services
CSA REDD+
PES
What scale?
ISSUE Small-holder
Farmer Local Level
Sub-national District
National Level
Scale field/farm/forest
plot village/watershed County/District Country
Area 0.1 - 50 ha 1000's ha 10,000's ha 100,000's ha
Landscape Actors Small-holders Communities District Officials Govt Policymakers
Jurisdiction/tenure Often weak Mixed Strong Total
Actor Interest
Productivity High Moderate Moderate High
Carbon stocks Little Little Little Moderate
WB/WUE Moderate Moderate Little Little
Diversity Moderate Little Little Little
Strength Instit. Moderate High Moderate Little
Needs
Technologies Practices
Inputs Access to Credit
Materials Buyers Advice
Land Tenure Access Rights
Organised Farmers Functioning
Markets Low Conflict
Demonstrations Suppliers Byelaws
Manag. Rights
Landuse Control Tax Revenues
District Legislation Central Govt
Support
Tax Revenues Policies
Analyses Evidence Baselines
Monitoring Int. collaboration
Aspirations survival, self determination, more power/influence,
better infrastructure, greater HDI
The Landscape Approach to Development
eastern
western
Fort Tenan
Participatory Assessment of Current and Potential Climate
Smart Practices
Awareness Raising, Capacity Development and Demonstrations
Introduction or testing of Climate Smart Practices
Baseline Measurement and Monitoring of
Land Health
Greenhouse Gases
Using and Improving Predictive Tools for
Potential Impact
Increasing Productivity
Reducing Environmental
Footprint
FAO MICCA Project
Linkages between adaptation and mitigation
Improved carbon sink management
[M] Minimized deforestation and forest degradation
[M]
Improved adaptive capacity of the society
[A]
Diminished release of GHG to the
Atmosphere [M]
Improved livelihood [A]
Sustainable forest
management [M]
Reduced loss of soil carbon stock
[M]
Enhances carbon sinks [M]
Afforestation and reforestation [M]
Biodiversity conservation [A]
Agroforestry [M] [A]
Soil and water conservation [A]
Better landscape management [M] [A]
Improved agricultural
productivity [A]
Enhanced ecosystem services and goods
availability [A]
Sentinel Landscapes 2013 • Data & Research Method sharing
platform to catalyze the emergence of a more coordinated and collaborative research approach across landscapes
• Stimulus for new research ideas forming the basis for new CRP6 operational plans
• Awareness of benefits of “high-value data sets”
Open access data archive: http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/crp6/
Data Management & Sharing documents developed
• RESEARCH DATA ARCHIVAL
GUIDELINES, • CS PRO MANUAL • DATAVERSE CATALOGING
INFORMATION FORM • DATAVERSE MANUAL FOR
CREATING AND UPLOADING STUDIES
• RESEARCH DATA MANAGEMENT TRAINING MANUAL
• DATA MANAGMENTFQ • GUIDELINES FOR SHARING
DATA IN SENTINEL LANDSCAPES
• RESEARCH DATA MANAGEMENT POLICY DEVELOPED BOTH FOR ICRAF AND CIFOR
17 databases submitted and shared
Profitable agriculture
Subsistence agriculture + safety nets
Pre-commercial agriculture
Subsistence agriculture
Sustainable (small-holder) agriculture
Use of Interventions:
Use of Interventions:
5. Food for thought on ATI next steps
Crop rotation Growing legume crops Growing cover crops Fallowing in some cases Using animal manure (??) Proper use of pesticides Proper use of inorganic fertilisers Low tillage systems Not burning the residues Soil erosion control measures Good use irrigation and water
Lots of good things we know we should be doing
Forecast Rank (and spank) Identify Test Target Design Evaluate Monitor interventions Description of systems, situational analysis Prioritise investments
(Value for money metrics for measuring agriculture, ecosystem and poverty and nutritional outcomes)
Utility of ATI
SAI Benchmarking Report (2009)
Power of the Single Number
Measurement Magnitude
Dimensions (units)
Uncertainty
Required Features of ATI
1. Sound conceptual framework, clarity of goals
2. Broad ownership, agreed terminology, universal indicator set
3. Actionable (Decisions, Practices)
4. Rigorous data collection and analyses (uncertainty)
5. Credible, reliable and accurate
6. Accessible, customisable, allow tradeoffs scenarios, subjectivity
7. Easy to interpret
8. Free from manipulation, independently verifiable
9. Enduring and financially supported
10.Evolve with new evidence
PURPOSES SCALE
Global National Sub-national Local
1. Awareness, advocacy and transparency *** *** ** *
2. Alignment Goals, Standards, Methods ** *** * *
3. Identify and mitigate risks, constraints *** *** ** **
4. Benchmarking and ranking *** *** **
5. Formulation and reform policies * *** ** **
6. Prioritise allocations, investment, actions ** *** *** **
7. Target and monitor interventions ** *** *** **
8. Report outcomes and impacts (VFM) *** ** **
PURPOSES ACTOR
Donors
Govts
Private Sector
NGOs CBOs
Farmers
Public/ Consumr
1 Awareness,advocacy and transparency
*** ** *** ** *
2 Alignment Goals, Standards, Methods ** *** * * * *
3 Identify and mitigate risks, constraints
** *** *** ** **
4 Benchmarking and ranking
*** *** ** *
5 Formulation and reform policies
* *** ** ** ** *
6 Prioritise allocations, investment, actions
** *** *** * **
7 Target and monitor interventions
** *** ** **
8 Report outcomes and impacts (VFM)
*** ** ** * *
ATI Sub-indicies
1. Agribusiness/Policy (BBA)
2. Productivity and Nutrivity
3. Profitability, ROI
4. Agroecosystem Health (soil, water, biodiversity, carbon, pollution)
5. Social inclusion (gender, youth, poor)/Capacity
Indicators
1. Existing and new
2. Predictive and responsive
3. Quantitative, qualitative (relative/filter)
4. Direct and proxy measures
5. Will evolve over time
6. May we weighted differently by some groups
ATI – the most promising initiative
ATI – the most promising initiative
Theory of Change
Change of Theory
QUICK and CLEAN
Private Sector Dialogue - Metrics of Sustainable Agriculture 17-18 September 2013, ICRAF, Kenya
MARS, DANONE, Nestle, Unilever, Louis Dreyfus IFAD, CTA
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