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UNDERSTANDING GROWTH PROJECTION DATA
John Cronin, Ph.D. – Director, The Kingsbury Center at NWEA
READING A GROWTH REPORTPart 1
4
ESTABLISHING GROWTH GOALS
Part 2
Three ways to consider goals Meeting a growth norm
Simply tells you whether performance is “average”
Setting aspirational goals (college readiness, grade level, proficiency) Tells whether growth is on track to meet
a goal Setting improvement goals
Tells how much you expect to get better
Three ways to consider goals Meeting a growth norm
Most appropriate for summative evaluation
Setting aspirational goals (college readiness, grade level, proficiency) Not appropriate for summative
evaluation Setting improvement goals
Requires context
Setting a goals that will close a gap in three yearsStudent RIT 50th
PercentileCurrent Gap
Growth Norm
6th Grade 216 226 10 6
Projected 7th grade
222 230 8
6th Grade Target
6+3 The target is the growth norm plus 1/3 of the gap
Using the 2012 school growth norms
CONSIDERATIONS WHEN MEASURING GROWTH
Part 3
Growth measurement has many moving parts
Standard error of measure
Classroom testing conditions
The student’s readiness
Classroom testing conditions
The student’s readiness
Standard error of measure
Factors that affect the standard error of the measurement
Design of the test - tests are not equally accurate for all students
California STAR NWEA MAP
Error in relation to standard deviation WKCE/MAP
5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
WKCEMAP
Size of the group - Measurement error declines as the number of students increases
1 student 30 students 100 students 1000 students0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.5
Standard error of growth in 6th grade math
Factors affecting growth score validityLevel Factors affecting
growthSolution
Student Measurement error of the test, classroom testing conditions, student’s readiness to perform
Student growth trends become visible with more measurements - 4 or 5 tests establish clear patterns.
Classroom Measurement error is relevant but a smaller factor, classroom testing conditions are very important, an extreme student result can impact results.
Student growth becomes more stable as more classrooms are included in the measure. Work at making testing conditions consistent.
Grade level, building, district
Measurement error is small, classroom conditions remain important, systematic gaming is a threat to validity
Institute policies to assure consistent testing conditions.
GROWTH CAN BE MANIPULATED
The use of tests for high stakes encourages “gaming” of the system and undermines the integrity of results.
A tale of 5 students
Student 1
Student 2
Student 3
Student 4
Student 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
49
24
7
36 40
103 105
67
52
107
RIT GrowthTest 1 - MinutesTest 2 - Minutes
Mean value-added performance in mathematics by school – fall to spring
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
Mean spring and fall test duration in minutes by school
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Spring term Fall term
Mean value-added growth by school
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Students taking 10+ minutes longer spring than fall All other students
WHAT TERMS SHOULD WE USE TO MEASURE GROWTH?
Part 4
Advantages of spring to spring Measures a full instructional year. Growth results are less likely to be
“gamed”. Reflects any summer loss on the part
of students.
Advantages of fall to spring Measures the teacher’s contribution
during the school year. Provides a better beginning point
(fall) to plan instruction.
Advantages spring, fall, spring Provides a measurement of summer
loss. Offers a way to find and correct for a
bad test event. Provides better evidence of a trend.
QUESTIONS?
Presenter - John Cronin, Ph.D.
Contacting us:Rebecca Moore: 503-548-5129E-mail: rebecca.moore@nwea.org
This PowerPoint presentation and recommended resources are available at our website: www.kingsburycenter.org
This presentation is the top presentation on this pagehttp://www.slideshare.net/kingsburycenter/understanding-growth-projection-data
Understanding growth projection data
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