Regional development in the Nile River Basin

[Potential] Regional Development in the Nile River Basin

Ana Elisa CascãoPresentation to TWM Global ProgrammeStockholm – 2nd June 2010

The River(s)

Contribitution to Nile flowsContribitution to Nile flows

Annual (average)

Flood period

(average)

Eastern Nile Basins

(from Ethiopia)

Blue Nile 59% 68%

Tekezze/Atbara 14% 5%

Baro-Akobo/Sobat

13% 22%

Total Ethiopia 86% 96%

Equatorial Nile Basin

White Nile 14% 5%

The Hydrology

The TopographyBlue Nile source

White Nile source

Ethio-Sudan border

Egypt’s

terri

tory

The land/waterscapesEthiopia Sudan

Egypt Uganda

The land/water uses

Film-satellite-trip to the Nileby Bruce Lankford

The Water availability/utilisation

84 bcm / average84 bcm / average

Little utilisation

Little utilisation

How much water is Egypt and Sudan

utilising?

Current water utilisation of the Nile waters

Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters

The 1959 Agreement

?

The Basin countries

EGYPTSUDANETHIOPIA +

Equatorial states

Geography

Geography

Geography

Material power

Material power

Material power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Power asymmetries

The enduring conflict

Control

Contribution

Utilisation

Donwstream

U

pstream

Allocation

Equitable utilisation

DevelopmentBenefits- Sharing

Towards Cooperation

Donwstream Upstream

Hydropolitics

(HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY

COOPERATION:Development opportunities

Basin-wide approachInvestment projectsLegal negotiations

Donors support

CONFLICT:Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation

Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments

Securitisated hydropolitics

Past

Since mid-

1990s

The cooperation process

since 1999 1997-2007 2011!?

Two-track process

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

Nile Basin Initiative

GOAL

Benefit-Sharing Paradigm

NBI Operational Structure

NBI ‘philosophy’

NBI Programs

NBI Donors

NBI Time framework

NBI, 2009

NBI: successes and failures

SHARED VISION

SHARED VISION

INVESTMENT PROJECTS

INVESTMENT PROJECTS

NBI: successes and failures

GOVERNANCE

GOVERNANCE

The legal negotiations

New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric

allocations Prior use Acquired rights Prior Notification “New water” No-harm Principle

River Basin Organisation

STATUS QUO

New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric

allocations New uses Acquired rights Prior Notification Investment Equitable and reasonable

utilisation Principle River Basin Organisation

STATUS QUO

?

DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANSDOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANSUPSTREAM RIPARIANS

NILE COOPERATIVE

FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

[...]

Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure

that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security

of any other Nile Basin State."

Egypt/Sudan proposal:“(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree,

in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security

and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.”

[...]

2007-2010: The deadlock

No water

allocations

included in the

agreement

POTENTIAL

Collective bargaining power

Challenge/Pressure

Balance of power

Changes in the status quo

Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation)

LIMITS

Agreement without Egypt?

Implementation challenges

Egypt’s response

Geopolitics

Donors behaviour

Access to investment

2010: The big challenge!

Meanwhile...

Meanwhile...

Meanwhile...

Meanwhile...

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Cascão 2009

What next?

Thanks!ana.cascao@siwi.org