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CALEM 2014 Presentation: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data, Carol Aslanian, Aslanian Market Research/EducationDynamics. During this presentation, new data will be represented on the demands and preferences of adult and other "post-traditional" undergraduate and graduate students. Among he topics covered in the presentation are: the degrees and certificates in highest demand, the formats most desired, the services expected, the marketing channels they most frequently consult and what they look like demographically.
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Post-Traditional Students: A Review of the Data
2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.1
Carol AslanianSenior Vice President,
Aslanian Market Research
2006
17.8M
2008
19.1M
For-Profit Sector Share: 13% (BMO Cap.)
2010
21.0M2012
20.2M
Overall Higher Education Enrollment(Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount)
2
(NCES – Fall Enrollment)
2013
19.9M
• Growth trend flattened beginning 2011• Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013
Adult students (25+) make up about 50% of all
higher education enrollments.
Noncredit: 20m+
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
2020
23.9M2016
22.5M
…and what’s to come?????
3
(NCES – Fall Enrollment)
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
??
2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.
4
50% of college students finish in four years…
…50% do not (DOE)
US Higher Ed Enrollment Trends
Growth by Age Group2010 2021
18 - 24 years: 10%
25 - 34 years: 20%
35+ years: 25%
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 5Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
Percent Age 25+Undergraduate 31%
Graduate 81%Total 42%
Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50%12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment.
Higher Education Enrollments
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
Source: NCES – Fall Enrollment
6Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share
2013 2.58m students (13% share of all postsecondary enrollments)
2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection)
**Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)**
Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
(degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions)
7Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
Feeder High School Graduates
High School Graduation Trends (National)
WiCHE 9
High School Graduation Trends (Regional)
Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028
WiCHE 10
High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education?
• In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students
on college campuses
• One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds
(more in California?)
• Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education
• Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school
© Aslanian Market Research 11Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
What does this mean for your Enrollments?• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to
the traditional higher education market
• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market
• Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment
© Aslanian Market Research 12Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
Who Are College Students Today?
or…
13Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
The Changing Profile of a College Student
• 20% of all undergraduates today are “traditional” students – 18-24– living on campus– attend full-time
• 80% of all undergraduates today are “post-traditional” – working– live off-campus– financially independent– often first-generation
• Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking “Traditional Study”: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc…)
14© Aslanian Market ResearchCopyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids
Open a web browser
Make a mobile phone call
Play a basic computer game
Turn a computer on/off
Operate a computer mouse
25%
28%
58%
63%
69%
Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can…
15Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
Market Trends in Online Education
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est)
2.3m 3.5m4.6m
6.1m
9.9m10.8m*
780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m3.3m 3.4m*
Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online* 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth (Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010)
Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012; Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 16
Future of Online Enrollments
2012 15% of all enrollments
2016 20% of all enrollments (est.)
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 17
2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.
18
Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing)
is 3-4 times the rate of
classroom enrollment
Adults as Students
2012-2013
Adult Students: Snapshot
• Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations
nationwide
• Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 20
General Personal Characteristics
• Majority are female
• Getting younger
• Majority are non-minority
• More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials
• Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study
• Most often finance their own study
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 21
• Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses
• Study in career fields• Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and,
Health Professions
• Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less
General Learning Patterns
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 22
• Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%)
• Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study
• Prefer multiple learning options – class/hybrid/online
General Learning Patterns (cont.)
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 23
Personal Characteristics at time of enrollment
32%-Bachelor’s plus
Education-Level: Undergraduate
20%
20%
18%
9%
21%
4%5%
1% 1% High school diploma / GED
One or two years of college, but no Associate’s degree
Associate’s degree
Three or four years of college, but no Bachelor’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree
Master’s degree
Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate
Doctorate
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 25
Education-Level: Graduate
57%
11%
25%
4% 3%Bachelor’s degree
Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree
Master’s degree
Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate
Doctorate32%-Master’s plus
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 26
Age at Time of Study
Undergraduate Graduate
25-29 24 27
30-39 26 26
40-49 20 17
50-59 17 18
60 and older 7 5
Median 32 Years 33 Years
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 27
Gender
Undergraduate Graduate
Female 71% 67%
Male 28 32
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 28
Ethnicity
Undergraduate GraduateWhite 77% 79%
African-American 7 5
Asian or Pacific Islander
6 9
Hispanic 5 3
Native American 1 1
Other 2 1
29
Employment Status at Time of Study
Undergraduate Graduate
Employed full time 56% 69%
Employed part time 19 16
Not employed 19 13
Retired 4 2
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 30
Income at Time of Study Undergraduate Graduate
Under $25,000 15% 10%$25,000 - $39,999 16 11$40,000 - $54,999 15 11$55,000 - $69,999 13 13$70,000 - $84,999 11 12$85,000 - $99,999 9 12$100,000 - $114,999 8 9$115,000 - $129,000 4 6$130,000 - $149,000 3 5More than $150,000 5 12Median income $55,000 $70,000
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201431
How do they pay for courses?
Course Payment Method
Undergraduate GraduatePersonal funds 61% 65%Student loans 38 34Pell Grants or other federal/state/local government grants and scholarships
28 14
Tuition reimbursement 17 28Personal loans 8 10Private scholarships 7 9Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2Other 3 2
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201433
What credentials do they seek?
Credential - Undergraduate
Enrolled in a degree program32%
Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program
21%
Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional
area 27%
Individual Courses 20%
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201435
Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate
Associate16%
Bachelor’s84%
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201436
Credential - Graduate
Enrolled in a degree program
59%
Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program
17%
Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional
area 24%
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201437
Degree Level Pursued- Graduate
Master’s81%
Doctorate19%
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201438
Full-time or part-time study?
Full-Time/Part-time Study
Full-time 52%
Part-time 48%
Undergraduate
Full-time45%Part-time
55%
Graduate
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201440
Do they prefer day, evening, or weekend study if taking a classroom course?
Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred
3%
27%
16%
44%
5% 5%2%
17%12%
56%
8%5%
Undergraduate Graduate
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201442
Are they attracted to hybrid and online study?
Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate
Classroom Hybrid Online Only
76%
33%
44%43% 43%
26%
Actual* Preferred
* Respondents may give more than one response
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201444
Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate
Classroom Hybrid Online Only
72%
32%
40%45%
33%
22%
Actual* Preferred
* Respondents may give more than one response
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201445
Do they prefer accelerated courses?
Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate
15 weeks or more14 weeks13 weeks12 weeks11 weeks10 weeks
9 weeks8 weeks7 weeks6 weeks5 weeks4 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Preferred Actual
Median Preferred: 10 Weeks
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 47
Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate
15 weeks or more14 weeks13 weeks12 weeks11 weeks10 weeks
9 weeks8 weeks7 weeks6 weeks5 weeks4 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Preferred Actual
Median Preferred: 10 Weeks
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 48
What subjects do they most often study?
Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand)
Undergrad DegreesBusinessSTEMSocial SciencesHealth ProfessionsHumanities/Liberal ArtsEducation
Graduate DegreesBusinessEducationHealth ProfessionsSocial SciencesSTEMHumanities/Liberal Arts
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 50
How do they become aware of your college during their search?
Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate
Internet Search EnginesCollege Search Sites
Mail to HomeEmails
Television AdsAds on Websites
Radio AdsNewspaper Ads
BillboardsBus/Train Ads
(On a scale of 5)
3.23.23.02.82.82.62.52.42.32.1
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 52
Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate
Internet Search EnginesCollege Search Sites
Mail to HomeEmails
Television AdsAds on Websites
Radio AdsNewspaper Ads
BillboardsBus/Train Ads
(On a scale of 5)
3.13.12.92.72.52.52.32.32.22.1
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 53
Podcasts
Blogs
Social Media Fan Pages
Faculty/student Chats
Online Open House
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.1
GraduateUndergraduate
Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale)
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 54
What Social Media do Adults Use?
None
Other
MySpace
15%
2%
8%
26%
38%
79%
15%
4%
5%
25%
50%
78%
GraduateUndergraduate
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 55
2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.
56
30%make NO direct contact with college until they
submit their application.
Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College
Current or Former StudentsThe College’s Website
Friend, Family, Co-workersRadio Ads
Newspaper AdsTelevision Ads
Direct MailOther
29%231910 5 5 4 5
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 57
IssuesAnd Opportunities
• Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research
• Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants
• Expanding demand for online format
• Resistance among some academics for online
Issues
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 59
• Importance of local/ground presence for online
delivery
• Education matched to today’s jobs
• Cost and reputation matter most
• Rising importance of “brand”
Issues
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 60
• Increasing acquisition costs/limited marketing
budgets
• Electronic marketing and recruitment
Issues
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 61
• Younger “adult” students
• Multiple formats are essential: classroom/hybrid/online
• Customer Service/24-7 Operations
• Time to completion
Issues
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 62
Opportunities
• Stackable certificates/badges
• Declining share of for-profit institutions
• Adult student market growth
• 24/7 learning options
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 63
Opportunities
• Non-degree credentials
• Hybrid/blended and online learning
• Younger students online
• Rising number of “traditional” students acting like adults
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 64
• Low residence programs
• Growth of non-credit career/professional development market
• Continuous change in the economy/job market
Opportunities
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 65
• Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs
• Age no longer predicts learning patterns
• International adult student demand for online education
Opportunities
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 66
Thank you!
Evaluation code: aslaniankeynote
67
Questions?
Aslanian Market Researchcaslanian@educationdynamics.comOffice 201.377.3321Mobile 917.216.1969Fax 201.653.2970www.educationdynamics.comadultstudents.educationdynamics.com
Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
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