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Extreme climatic events in the Andes:
impacts and adaptation
C. Huggel
L. Angulo, P. Calanca, C. Jurt, M. Rohrer, G. Romero
N. Salzmann, E. Silvestre
January 2010 rainfall, flood and debris flow
disasters in Cusco
Repeated short-medium duration, local-
regional events
Types of extreme events
Sudden, local events:
Flash flood in Taray, Cusco Region, March 2010
Predes
Long-duration, regional events:
Cold waves in the high Andes
Predes
Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), Laguna
513, Carhuaz, Cordillera Blanca
Thousands of people have been killed in
such events in Peru in the past
Sudden, local-to-regional events
based on cumulative climate change related
developments in the cryosphere:
G. Kaser
C. Portocarrero 11 April 2010
• Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present
• Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI)
Trends in extreme events?
- documentation of extremes
Alle_Ereignisse_distritos_cu_71-80
Nr_Emergencias
0
1 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26 - 30
>30
Disasters 1971-1980 Cusco, on
the level of Distritos
A. Raissig
• Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present
• Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI)
=> Consistency of documentation is critical
Disaster inventory data
Alle_Ereignisse_distritos_cu_01-08
Nr_Emergencias
0
1 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26 - 30
>30
Disasters 2001-2008 Cusco, on
the level of Distritos
A. Raissig
Heavy precipitation and floods
in Cusco, January 2010
• Daily max. precip: 46 mm
• Monthly accumulated rainfall: 255 mm
• In 45 years only 3 occurrences with
daily rain >45 mm
>23,000 people
affected,
>4,500 houses
destroyed
Trends in extreme events?
- climate data
Trends in extreme rainfall events?
The 30 largest rainfall event in Cusco for 1965-2010
Deriving trends in extreme events is tricky and complex (detection)
Establish relation with climate change even more complex (attribution)
Feb rainfall distribution, Cusco, 1971-2009
0
10
20
30
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60
Ap
r-6
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Ap
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mm
/d
Climate indices vs impacts felt by local people
IPCC AR4, WG I
?
Climate change impact effects
Climate
Climate change
Temperature
increase
Humidity
change
Rainfall intensity
change
Biophysical
vulnerability (e.g. vegetation,
terrain, etc)
Physical
impacts
Impacts felt by local
people
Socio-economic
vulnerability (e.g. poverty,
livelihood
conditions)
Example in the high Andes
Local community of Phinaya
• at ~5000 m asl
• ~200 families
• mostly Alpaca and Vicuña farming
• highly exposed to climatic variability and extremes
Perceptions of climate change and extreme events by local people:
• cold spells have always occurred and people were prepared for them in May,
June, July, but now they occur in any moment
• less constant, predictable weather patterns than earlier
• more rain than snow
• hotter and more intense radiation (mountains are ‘less white’)
• their systems to ‘read’ the weather is today more difficult to apply
Adapt to what?
Implications for adaptation
Understand vulnerabilities and risks !
Künzler
Forms of adaptation
• autonomous adaptation
• planned adaptation
• anticipatory / proactive adaptation (IPCC)
=> a continuous iterative process!
Example of adaptation to extreme events
Early warning system for landslide and floods in
the Cordillera Central of Colombia
Knowledge on
existing risks
Monitoring and
warning service
Communication
CREPAD Ibagué
Sensor de nivel del río
Preparedness
and response
Technical component
Social component
Institutional component
Conclusions for adaptation
• Extreme events and related disasters are a complex combination of natural
and social/political/economic factors
• The consideration of the different levels of impacts and vulnerabilities is
critical for a thorough analysis
• Due to this and further problems of documentation, trends of extreme
events in the Andes are difficult to derive but nevertheless some tendencies
are probably detectable
• Due to the uncertainties involved, adaptation must be robust and effective
on different social and institutional levels
Thanks for your attention!
2005 2006 2007 2008
helada_ap_05
NR__EMERGE
0
1
2
3
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5
• La distribución de heladas en cuatro diferentes años
• Los años 2007 y 2008 muestran heladas pronunciados
A. Raissig
sequia_ap_04
NR_EMERGEN
0
1
2
3
2004 2005 2006 2007
sequia_ap_05
NR_EMERGEN
0
1
2
3
• La distribución de sequías en cuatro diferentes años
• El año 2005 muestra una sequía pronunciado
A. Raissig
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