LNG Supply Chain & Energy Forecasting

Supply Chain of LNG Business and Demand Forecasting of LNG in India

Presented by:Atul Bhatt M-11-004Kamal Pant M-11-007

Rajeev Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology MBA 2011-13

ContentsIntroductionIndia NG mixGas import OptionsLNG importing contractsLNG value ChainCase Study: PLLCase study: Shell HaziraSupply Chain Risks & MitigationsDemand AnalysisConclusion

Introduction Natural Gas is playing a vital role in meeting

global energy demands. Last 30 years a shift of global energy mix

towards natural gas is being witnessed and the importance is poised to increase in future.

In India, total production of natural gas in 2010 was 50.9 BCM while consumption was 61.9 BCM, the gap was bridged was more costly LNG.

India needs to look for alternatives for meeting its energy demand if it has to sustain its GDP growth.

India Natural Gas MixDomestic ProductionCross-country PipelinesLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Since the cross-country pipelines option is mired in geo-poilitical issues, LNG is poised to be the solution to bridge the demand-supply gap.

Qatar, Oman

Iran

Yemen

Turkmenistan

Malaysia, IndonesiaAustralia

Cochin

Delhi

Dahej

GAS IMPORT OPTIONSGAS IMPORT OPTIONS

Gas Pipeline Import

LNG Import

Myanmar

LNG imports would supplement

gas pipeline imports and help in

development of pipeline grid

LNG Importing OptionsSpot marketShort Term contractLong Term contract

LNG Value ChainE&PLiquefactionShippingRegasificationTransport

LNG Route to Gas Value Chain- Up/ Mid/ Down stream

Gas Production

Gas Sweetening

NGL Extraction Liquefaction

Cryogenic

Vessels

for

LNG Transport

LNG send-out pipeline

R-Gas Terminal

Pipelines

NGL Transporta

tion

CGD Network

ENPNatural gas is discovered during the

search for oil. The activities under E&P extend

from1. exploring, drilling and assessing

new sources. 2. executing projects for developing

those reserves.3. planning and running production

operations.

Liquefaction

The liquefaction process can purify the LNG to almost 100 percent methane.

Cooling the clean feed gas by using refrigerants.

Temperature of approximately -161°C.

By liquefying the gas, its volume is reduced by a factor of 600.

TransportationMembrane TypeSpherical Type

RegasificationThis occurs at import terminal.Heat exchange using seawater to

warm up the gas. The vaporized gas is then

regulated for pressure and enters the pipeline system as natural gas.

Transport as GasPipelinesTrucks (Cascades)

For residential & commercial use as fuel or for power generation.

Petronet LNG Supply Chain

Petronet LNG- Dahej

Petronet LNG- Dahej

IOCLIOCL

BPCLBPCL

LNG Taral Gas MarketLNG Taral

Gas Market

GAILGAILSpot TradingSpot Trading

QatarQatar

Shell HaziraShell Hazira

HVJHVJ

Dahej-Uran Pipeline

Dahej-Uran Pipeline

EWPLEWPL

GSPLGSPL

Qatargas 4Qatargas 4

Oman LNGOman LNG

Malaysia LNGMalaysia LNG

Shell Hazira Supply Chain

Supply Chain Risks & Mitigation

1. Political and RegulatoryThe risk of cost overruns on the

political and regulatory relationship with the host government.

Must learn how to manage political and regulatory risks.

Supply Chain Risks & Mitigation

2. Safety & SecurityConsequence-based approach Risk-based approach

3. Environmental Impact Strict review and complianceThoughtful planning and risk

analysis

Supply Chain Risks & Mitigation

4. Public perceptionActive and continuous

engagement of the public and recognition of the local community.

Engage stakeholders early in the process and to provide all the necessary information.

Developers should also use public relations and media relations effectively.

Consumption and Production Pattern of natural gas

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics 2012

Consumption and Production Pattern of Coal

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics 2012

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

Consumption and Production Pattern of Crude oil

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

ProductionConsumptionDeficit

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics

2012

Dynamics among LNG, Crude oil & Coal

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% Change NG% Change Crude% Change Coal

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics

2012

Average Growth rate

Natural Gas

Crude oil

Coal

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00

Source :BP Statistics

2012

Energy Requirements from Crude, Coal & NG

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics

2012

LNG Requirements

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics

2012

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

Regasification requirement

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250

10

20

30

40

50

60

3

5

8

11

14

18

22

26

30

35

40

46

51

58

All figures in MTOE. Source :BP Statistics

2012

ConclusionTo bridge demand-supply gap huge re-

gasification capacity is needed.Two LNG terminals are currently in

operations with 2 more facilities coming up in less than a year time & 4 more units are planned.

It is envisaged that the capacity will be augmented by 50 MMTPA by the year 2020 changing the energy dynamics of the country.

ReferencesBP Statistics 2012 tepco.comeia.gov.inmospi.nic.inFor any more clarifications mail us @

atulbhatt2005@gmail.com kamal.h.pant@gmail.com

Thank You!!!