Let's Predict the Future: B1 Predicting Needs and Risks

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B: Predictions #soaim14

Let's Predict the Future!

A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis

Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY)

B1: Predicting The Future: The Need and the Risks

Optimism

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Photo used with permission.

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Time of Growth

1990s & early 2000s saw:

• Increased funding across education sector

• Significant developments in IT sector

• Willingness by senior managers & funding bodies to invest in innovative IT developments (e.g. JISC development programmes)

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“Great proposal – we’ll fund it”Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-SA licence: http://www.flickr.com/photos/inlinguamanchester/5036313154/

Stormy times

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From the Sea of Tranquility to the Perfect Storm

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Time of Growth is Over

Late 2000s and beyond:• Decreased funding across

education & public sector• Acknowledgements that

innovation can provide growth and cost savings

• Significant developments continue in IT sector

• Investment in innovative IT developments need to be based on evidence of benefits & likelihood of success

5Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence: http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258//

“You want how much? And no evidence it will work! You’re crazy!”

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The Future: A Quick Summary

What technological developments might have an impact in the future?

For the impatient, here’s a summary!

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The Future: A Quick Summary

In the future:• Data will be Big• Content and services will be open• Services will use open source software• We’ll continue to see a growth in

importance of online services• This will lead to a recognition of the value of

libraries and librarians• We will travel to work by monorail• We will use jetpacks on weekends• We will go to lunar base for our summer

holidays

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The Future from the Past

The future was exciting in 1956!

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Monorail, Incorporated built a short test track of their suspended system at Arrowhead Park in Houston, Texas. Each bogie was powered by a 310-horsepower Packard automobile engine. The driver was seated high above the passenger carriage on one of the two bogies. After eight months of testing, the track was dismantled and rebuilt at the Texas State fairgrounds where it ran for many years. Its promoters claimed it could reach speeds of 160 km but no Skyway transit installations were ever built.

“Eagle has Landed”

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Awoken at 3 am on 16 June 1969 to watch lunar landing on black and white TV.

But the future was exciting!

The Future from the Past

1969 was exciting!

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The future is exciting!

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What I Expected in the Future

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The Present: Better than Predicted

Star Trek predicted mobile phones

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Nokia 8110 “stole the show in 1998”

but not smart phones!

Has the Future Arrived?

Mobile phones

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The Future from the Past

The future is exciting! 14

Shush!

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Acknowledgements to Patrick Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach)

Librarians will appropriate technological developments to support their activities!

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What Can We Conclude?

Assumptions of: • Inevitability of technological developments• Economic growth (we can afford them)• Political and social environment (no legal or

environmental barriers)

There is a need to:• Be wary of predictions which:

Simply justify our organisation’s current approaches (cf. music industry)

Reflect personal beliefs• Base predictions on evidence• Acknowledge that evidence may challenge

organisational or personal beliefs / prejudicesWe need a more systematic way of predicting future developments

The Context

In the future mobiles will be smaller & faster; Data will be Big and content and services will be open. Lots of opportunities for librarians

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Questions

Any questions?