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Chapter 10:
TechnologyTechnologyAssessmentAssessment
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Technology Assessment
Technology Assessment: “think before you act!” (Kranzberg, 1979)
When taken to the next level, it’s not only “think before you act”.
Any technology has obvious sought after effects called “first order effects.”
However, there are unintended effects as well called second and third order effects.
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Dimensions of Consequences
Desired
Intended
Unplanned
Undesired
Unintended
Planned
Technological Decision
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The automobile is fast, cheap transportation for the driver and provides profits for the manufacturer.– These are the first order effects that are obvious to
most consumers. However, there are second and third order effects.
– Decline of the railroads, urban decline, the interstate highway system, the decline in environmental quality, etc.
– The moving assembly line: drew women into the workforce
The difficulty of forecasting technological developments and the resulting side effects is one reason that criticism is ever present.
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History of Technology Assessment
Technology assessment dates back to the creation of the Regulatory Agency in the 1850’s which was created after more than 2,500 deaths related to the shipping industry.
Regulation spread to other areas as well, but in the early 20th century focus was shifted to technology.
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National Environmental Policy Act of 1972
This act required environmental impact statements for all federal actions significantly affecting the environment.
The Technology Assessment Act of 1972 was enacted by Congress to establish an Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) as an aid in the identification and consideration of existing and probable impacts of technological application; to amend the National Science Foundation Act of 1950; and for other purposes.
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The basic function of the OTA was to:
1. Identify existing or probable impacts of technology or technological problems
2. Where possible, ascertain cause-and-effect relationships3. Identify alternative technological methods of implementing specific
programs4. Identify alternative programs for achieving requisite goals5. Make estimates and comparisons of the impacts of alternative methods
and programs6. Present findings of completed analyses to the appropriate legislative
authorities7. Identify areas where additional research or data collection is required to
provide adequate support for the assessments and estimates.8. Undertake such additional associated activities as specified by the
appropriate authorities.
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Office of Technology Assessment (OTA)
Topics studied by OTA have ranged widely from nuclear proliferation to pollution control, industrial competitiveness, computer security and privacy, and medical technology.
The OTA was extremely successful and widely acclaimed. The OTA published over 100,000 pages of the best available
analysis of policy issues. For 23 years the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA)
provided Congress and other committees with an objective analysis of various technological and scientific issues that faced America.
The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment closed on September 29, 1995. It was small and fell victim to political downsizing in the 90’s in an attempt to streamline the budget.
The complete collection of publications by the office as well as other materials about its history are available online at:
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Biotechnology and Assessment
When dealing with living things, a whole host of ethical issues arise, that may not have surfaced with other forms of technological development.
Generally, morals, values, and religious beliefs surface when determining the positive and negative aspects of bio related technology.
The large-scale introduction of biomedical and other technologies in the second half of the 20th century has raised new ethical issues such as:
The definition of death Withdrawal of life-sustaining medical treatment Prenatal diagnosis and abortion Storage of frozen human embryos
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The use of humans, animals, or fetal tissue for scientific research
The screening of persons for the AIDS virus or other infections
The disposition of toxic wastes The expansion of genetic engineering The awareness of bioethics and other moral issues has
caused us to pay more attention to practical problems of biological research and deal with the moral and social concerns of human behavior.
Modern Biotechnology is a collection of technologies that are all targeted for a specific purpose.
These “biotechnologies” all have a common factor, which is the use of cells and biological molecules.
Biotechnology is a very large and growing area of study.
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Some common areas of research in Biotechnology include:
– Monoclonal Antibody Technology– Cell Culture Technology– Biosensor Technologies– Genetic Modification Technology– Antisense Technology– Protein Engineering Technology
These are only a fraction of the Biotechnology career areas that are currently being studied.
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Focus of Technology Assessment
• Technology plays an important role in development• The dominant system of decision making in
technology selection, focuses on economic considerations and tends to disassociate social and environmental factors
• A fragmented approach in making technology choices has implications on efficiency and sustainability of technology
• Integration of economic, social and environmental considerations ensures Resource (Economic and Environmental) Efficiency and Social Acceptability
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• Helping to describe the science and technology system
• Enabling better understanding of S&T structure
• Enabling better understanding of the impact of policies and programs on it
• Enabling to evaluate the impact of science and technology on society and the economy
Importance of Science & Technology (S&T) indicators
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Innovation and Technology Indicators
The indicators include 4P's: Publications, Patents, Prototypes and Product
They are considered as outputs of science and technology indicators
However, this topic will only focus on the assessment of technology through the process undertaken by companies
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“4P’s” Concept
Direct Impact of International Cooperation
Products
Patents
Publications
Scientific Research
Knowledge Based Economy
S&T Role in Knowledge Based
Community
S&T Research not Involving International CooperationCurrent Status of Scientific Research
Indirect Experience Gained through International Cooperation
Prototypes
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• It is important to …… Integrate Environmental, Social and Economic
Considerations… Focus on environment and development together and
puts them at the centre of the economic and political decision making process
... Adapt the country specific parameters and constraints
Sustainable Assessment of Technology (SAT)
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Some Key Characteristics
• It Undergoes progressive assessment (tiered) procedure (screening, scoping and detail assessment) thereby optimizing information requirements.
• It operates on strategic as well as operational level• It is a quantitative procedure allowing objective
assessment, sensitivity analyses and incorporation of scenarios
• It incorporates Continuous improvement through Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle
• It is not an automated process thereby making country specific adaptation possible
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Use of Technology Assessment
Policy and Government LevelFor Strategic Planning and Policy making
Financing Institution LevelFor Assessing projects for funding
Operational Level For assessment of alternative technologies
Community and Cluster LevelFor assessment and comparison of collective alternative technologies
Community / Enterprise LevelFor comparing technology options
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Application
The application areas include:• Environment and health related programs• Provision of basic infrastructure such as roads, power,
water etc.• Bio-diversity management• End-of pipe water and waste management
technologies• Water and waste recycling programs• Process technology modernization at shop floors and
at industrial clusters
Process of Sustainable Assessment of Technology
Screening
Public Information
/ Consultatio
n
Define targets
Issues to be addressed /
Problems to be solved
Strategic Level Assessment
Preferred Technology Options
Operational Level AssessmentDetailed engineering
design & costing
Monitoring / Performance Evaluation
Scoping
Detailed Assessmen
t
Cus
tom
ized
Crit
eria
and
Indi
cato
rs
cons
ider
ing
envi
ronm
enta
l, so
cial
an
d ec
onom
ic c
onsi
dera
tions
Implementation
Situational Analysis
Anticipating Future Scenarios
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Examples of problems related to healthcare waste management
Lack of healthcare waste management has resulted in public health problems in the community as people are exposed to needles and contaminated waste
Improper healthcare waste management practices pose a risk to the health and safety of health workers, waste collectors and patients in the health facility
Poor healthcare waste treatment methods have created a serious environmental problem in the local community causing resentment among neighbors affected by foul odors, smoke, air pollutants, contaminated water, or toxic ash from the health facility
Inadequate waste management practices are putting a strain on the solid waste management system and undermine the potential for material recovery and recycling.
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Methodology #1 – Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis and Defining TargetsThe Situation Analysis includes:
• Baseline data collection• Stakeholder consultation• Mapping and analyses
These two Steps help to identify issues, assess their significance and leads to setting of targets that should be addressed by proper technology intervention.
Situational Analysis
Define targets
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Methodology #2 – Strategic Level Assessment
Strategic level assessmentThis is done by planners, decision–makers, elected representatives through participatory sessions
The outcomes are important as it• Helps to develop customized criteria and indicators
for operational level from generic level.• Facilitates short-listing and identification of suitable
options• Provides leads to future scenario building (e.g.
population growth, tighten legal requirement) there by putting more light on technology choice.
Strategic Level Assessment
Examples of issues and targets at strategic level
ISSUES TARGETSAll health facilities in the area do not have a way to treat their infectious waste
Implementation of a large-scale central treatment technology to handle infectious waste from all generators in the area; promulgation of policies to require treatment of all infectious waste
Long distances and poor roads between districts preclude one central treatment facility for the province
Designation of a cluster treatment hub in each district and deployment of technology at each hub
Health facilities are remotely located and too far from each other
Implementation of a decentralized treatment scheme with a technology appropriately sized for each facility
The health facility plans to expand the number of beds, types of services, and its area of coverage in the future
Deployment of technology that is modular and can be easily scaled up
Strong public opposition to open burning and air pollution
Deployment of technology with little or no air emissions
Inadequate space in the landfill Use of technology that results in significant volume reduction; expansion of existing recycling infrastructure
Lack of information and training in healthcare waste management among health workers
Development of training programs as part of facility accreditation and/or professional licensing
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Methodology #3 – Operational Level Assessment
Operational level assessmentEngineers and technical staff assess the available
technology optionsIn community or enterprise level, operational level
assessment can be the first step.The level of expert opinion and technical information is
very important.
Operational Level Assessment
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Methodology #4 – Three-Tier-Assessment
Screening
Scoping
Detailed Assessme
nt
Customized Criteria and Indicators
considering environmental,
social and economic
considerations
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Screening
In this Step:
• The short listed systems from Operational level Assessment, undergoes objective YES/NO type answers
• Options which do not qualify one or more conditions, are eliminated.
Operational level assessment - Generic Screening Criteria
Heading Criteria Notes
Compliance Compliance with local environmental laws
The technology must comply with environmental laws of the city, municipality, district and/or province, such as air pollution or landfill regulations.
Compliance Compliance with national environmental laws
The technology must comply with national environmental laws, in particular, air pollution, wastewater, and solid waste disposal laws, and healthcare waste or hazardous waste management regulations. Some countries or local governments have banned incineration. Others specify only approved technologies for the treatment of one or more classifications of healthcare waste.
Compliance Compliance with multilateral environmental agreements
Many countries are parties to the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, and the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal. Both of these Conventions have guidance related to healthcare waste treatment. The technology should be consistent with this guidance and the country’s National Implementation Plans for these treaties.
Other requirements
Consistency with WHO policies
Many countries have adopted the World Health Organization’s policy on “Safe health-care waste management” (2004)
Other requirements
Meeting the objectives of 3R programs
Many local governments promote reduce-reuse-recycling programs. The technology should meet the objectives of these local environmental programs.
Other requirements
Other basic criterion Include other basic criterion from the stakeholder consultation workshops. Examples that might be raised during a consultation are: proven technology, good environmental performance, no smoke stack or visible smoke, safe handling of infectious waste, etc.
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Scoping
• It is a Comprehensive and Qualitative type (High/Medium/Low) assessment
• Various technology options are assessed against generic or customized criteria and indicators with use of computational methods such as:– The weighted sum technique– Sensitivity analysis– Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM): By
‘Expert choice’, a software using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to carry out MCDM
Operational level assessment – General Scoping Criteria
A. Technical Suitability
Criteria Notes
Preference for locally manufactured technologies Can the equipment be manufactured locally to reduce cost and support local employment
Availability of spare parts and usage of local materials To minimize downtime, consumable items and spare parts should be readily available. If there are no locally manufactured technologies, preference could be given to technologies that make use of locally made accessories, consumable items, and spare parts.
Availability of local expertise It would be essential to have the necessary local expertise for commissioning as well as operation, maintenance and repair of the technology. If local expertise is not available, preference could be given to vendors that are willing to train local operators and technicians to run and maintain the technology.
Compatibility with existing technology or management system
In some cases, it is possible that the new technology system would build upon some existing system. As such, it is essential that the new system is compatible with the existing infrastructure/ technology systems as well as the organization’s management systems.
Operational level assessment – General Scoping Criteria
B. Environment (Resources and Emissions)
Criteria Notes
Air emissions Some technologies, such as steam-based systems, have minimal air emissions while others, such as incinerators, release significant air contaminants that require air pollution abatement.
Liquid effluents Liquid effluents—such as sterile condensate, wastewater with high biological oxygen demand, spent chemical disinfectants, or contaminated effluents from scrubbers—are released in varying amounts and impact the environment differently.
Solid residues Some residues, such as sterilized plastics, have lower health/safety and environmental risks, compared to other residues, such as unshredded needles or incinerator ash.
Volume reduction Higher reduction in volume could mean lower transportation and disposal costs and lower impact on landfill space.
Noise Hammer mills and some shredders may generate unacceptable levels of noise especially if the treatment plant is adjacent to the community.
Operational level assessment – General Scoping Criteria
C. Economic/financial aspects
Criteria NotesCapital cost of the treatment technology The capital costs should include shipment, customs, installation,
start-up, testing, and commissioning costs could vary widely for different technologies. Particularly in developing countries, the capital cost could be an important consideration.
Capital costs of all accessories and related equipment The capital costs of all necessary accessories and related equipment should also be considered. These accessories could include containers, bins, trolleys, weighing scales, conveyors, bin loaders and other waste handling equipment, transport vehicles, boilers, computer controls, shredders, compactors, skips or dumpsters, water treatment systems, air pollution control systems, wastewater treatment systems, etc.
Operation and maintenance costs The main operating costs are labor, fuel (diesel, gas, etc.), electricity, water, consumables (personal protection equipment, disposable boxes and bags, labels, cleaning supplies, etc.), sewage, and landfill disposal costs, as well as preventive maintenance and repair costs including replacement parts.
Installation requirements If installation costs are not included in the capital cost of the technology, they should be estimated based on vendor information, technology fact sheets and expert opinions. Installation includes site preparation, foundation, construction or renovation of the space where the treatment technology will be located
Operational level assessment – General Scoping Criteria
D. Social/cultural aspects
Criteria NotesCommunity acceptance of the technology Some technologies are easier to understand than others. For
example, where pressure cookers and microwave ovens are common, communities are able to accept autoclave and microwave technologies more readily. Hospital personnel are generally already familiar with autoclaves and incinerators. However, many communities may be opposed to the siting of incinerators in their neighborhoods.
Income generation potential Job potential may be an important consideration in the community. The job potential can be assessed primarily by referring to vendor information, technology fact sheets and expert opinions.
Acceptability of treatment residues The acceptability of residues may depend on religious or cultural norms. Some communities may require that all healthcare waste be rendered unrecognizable. Others may require the burial of body parts and may not accept the burning, sterilizing or chemical decomposition of anatomical waste.
Extent of necessary resettlement of people Technology systems that use a lot of space or that should be sited far away from populations may mean the relocation of people. There may be other important social equity issues related to this criterion.
Visible or aesthetic impact Many communities are opposed to the sight of flue gas stacks and visible smoke.
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Detailed Assessment
• The options with best overall ratings from Scoping are selected for detailed assessment
• The Assessment level is situation specific and requires detailed and quantitative information.
• The outcome is a list of technology options ranked as per their scores
Process stability
805.5, 922.5,1008
Level of automation
Estimated useful life
Fuel consumption
Electricity consumption
Savings in energy
Capital investment
O & M costs
Financial incentivesPayback periodNPV / IRR
Secondary contaminantgeneration
PPE requirement for staff
Safety risk for workers and communities
Noise levels
Odour levels
Person-power requirements
Technical knowledge
requirements
25
50
75
100
Technology 1
Technology 2
Technology 3
Composite Star Diagram for Detailed Assessment
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Methodology #5 - Preferred Technology Options
Before discarding low scoring options and/or final decision on selection of technology one must keep in mind• Highest score technology option for current scenario
needs to be carefully reviewed for different scenarios as it may not be equally eligible as feasible option in other scenarios
• On the other hand, the technology options with less score may qualify for different scenarios with suitable technology transfer/capacity building efforts.
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Methodology #6 - Anticipating Future Scenario
In order to check the robustness of selected technology options, same methodology with simulated future scenario’s to be applied so at to confirm that the technology stands the test of time.
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Methodology #7 - Implementation and Monitoring
Once the decision on Suitable Option is made, this step covers the following:• Engineering design
• Tendering
• Actual construction and commissioning
Evaluation of technology during operational phase ensures meeting of desired objective against criteria considered in SAT process
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Methodology #8 – Reporting, Monitoring and Feedback
• Reporting the outcome of monitoring and evaluation to stakeholders, govt. agencies and decision makers acts as basis for situation analysis for future projects and helps in making informed decisions
• It helps refine and build the Methodology by - – Inclusion of additional criteria
– Disqualification of technology in future for similar
situations due to negative experiences.
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Technical Evaluation
Innovative product, not “me too” Competitive advantages, features, and benefits Barriers to competitive entry (hard to imitate) High quality Third-party test results Ability to deliver a consistent, quality product on time Spin-off, different market applications Environmentally safe
No safety/health risks, regulatory control
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Market Evaluation
Competitive advantage “USP”: Unique Selling Proposition Differentiate on quality,
service, or innovation Market Pull vs. Market Push
Solves customer problems Sunrise vs. Sunset market Significant market niche Market plan/strategy Distribution channels available Repeat sales likely Year-round vs. Seasonal demand
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Approaches to Differentiation
Prestige – Rolex, Mont Blanc
Quality – Honda, Cadillac Top-of-the-Line image –
Ralph Lauren, Cross Pens Innovative, technological
leadership – 3M Corp. Engineering design and
performance – Mercedes A different taste – Dr.
Pepper, Listerine Product reliability –
Johnson & Johnson baby products
Superior service – Federal Express
Full range of services – Merrill Lynch
Complete line of products – Campbell’s Soups
Spare parts availability - Caterpillar
More for your money – McDonald’s, Wal-Mart
Special features – Jenn-air’s indoor cooking tops
Economy – GE’s miser light bulbs
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Economic Evaluation
Premium, price possible for quality Competing on innovation, quality & service - not price Low up-front investment intensity Low overhead High value-added Business plan High productivity Minimum product liability Owners have financial commitment Management paid for performance, not title High Return on Investment (ROI) Realistic financial projections Good margins & profitability Good cash flow
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Management Evaluation(The most important criteria)
Experienced in industry Entrepreneurial aptitude and attitude Results-oriented, bias for action Business experience and education Visionary leadership – sees “big” picture Business strategy is clear and concise “Team” has experience and depth (Production, engineering,
finance, marketing, management) Experienced consultants, advisors (Technical, business, legal,
accounting) Outside accountability Board of Directors, investors, etc.
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Relative Market Share Is Closely Related To Profitability
11% 11%
20% 20%
34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 16 30 45 80
Relative Market Share (%)
RO
I (%
)
High Market Share Increases ROI
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ROI Increases With Market Share Rank
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
RO
I (Pr
etax
)
#5 #4 #3 #2 #1Market Share Rank
Higher Market Share Increases ROI
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High Quality Products & Services Are Most Profitable (Less 12% Cst Of Cap.)
10%
18% 18%
21%
29%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
RO
I(%)
0 5 25 50Perceived Quality By Competition
Quality Increases Rate of Return
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Good Productivity Is Closely Tied To High ROI
05
101520253035
ROI (%)
25K 30K 35K 50KValue Added Per Employee
High Productivity Increases Profitability
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Major Factors Causing High Profits
1. Strong Market Position Relative Market Share > 80%
2. Low Investment Intensity Investment/Sales < 33%
3. High Productivity Value Added/Employee > $60 K
4. High Perceived Quality Quality > 50%
5. Low R&D Marketing Expense Marketing + R&D/Sales < 10%
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Major Factors Causing Profit Trouble
1. Weak Market Position Relative Market Share < 25%
2. High Investment Intensity• Fixed Capital Investment/Sales < 33%
or• Working Capital Investment/Sales > 70%
3. Low Productivity Value Added/Employee < $45K
4. Poor or Standard Quality Quality < 0
5. High R&D & Marketing Expense Marketing + R&D/Sales > 15%
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Product Lifecycle
17-20 years – 1970 10-20 years – 1980 5-6 years – 1990 2-3 years – 2000 Less than 1 year for some products Need for constant innovation,
improvement, new product development
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New Products
Need a champion Market test Get to market swiftly (market plan) First to market gains share,
higher margins, etc. Sell benefits, not features Unique benefits – innovative, better,
faster, etc.
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Small Business Success…
70% keep on going after 8 years- Dun& Bradstreet survey of 800,000 small businesses started in 1985
80% fail in 5 years is myth!
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High Risk Economy
Unemployment Low Real Wages – all time high Record Profits Export Growing 3x growth of economy
BUT…
12% college graduates lost job since 1993 Corporate downsizing Job insecurity Economic uncertainty
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Strategies for companies…
Reengineer, restructure-boost productivity, profits-cut costs
Technological innovation Export in growth countries Invest in deregulated markets
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