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The BIG CallJune 2011
Pam Goodfellow, Senior Analyst, BIGresearch
Guest Contributor:
John Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group
presented by: 400 W. Wilson Bridge Rd.
Suite 200
Worthington, OH 43085
Ph: 614-846-0146
BIGinfo@bigresearch.com
© 2011, Prosper®
John Mariotti, President/CEO & Founder of
The Enterprise Group
• Director on corporate boards including:
• World Kitchen Inc.
• MCM Capital
•Previously:
• President of Rubbermaid Office Products Group
• President of Huffy Bicycles
• Award-winning author of The Complexity Crisis
• Author of nine business books
• Writing THE ENTERPRISE, a weekly newsletter & blog, since 2001
• Writing a weekly blog for American Express Open Forum
• Writing a weekly blog for FORBES/Prosper Now
• Advisor to several well-known companies
• Articles and interviews about his business successes have appeared in The Wall
Street Journal, Fortune, Business Week and many more publications
• Guest on CNBC's Today's Business and Power Lunch shows and a panelist on
MSNBC’S Your Business
© 2011, Prosper®
Consumer Intentions & Actions: June
Disclaimer: BIGresearch® makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained by BIGresearch from any source; the present or
future methodology employed in producing BIGresearch statistics; or the BIGresearch data and estimates represent only the opinion of BIGresearch and reliance thereon
and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
BIGresearch® is a registered trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.
This report is derived from the following BIGresearch® Studies:
• BIGresearch® Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey (CIA™), June 2011 (N = 8379, respondents surveyed 6/1 – 6/8/11)
• BIGresearch® Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey Trends, June 2003 – June 2011
• Consumer Confidence
• Employment Environment
• Practical Purchasing
• Effects of Escalating Pump Prices
• 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
• Guest Contributor:
• John Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group
© 2011, Prosper®
Consumer Confidence
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 10-11
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+
30.2%
27.3%
32.2%
27.8%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
© 2011, Prosper®
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 04-11
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+
Consumer Confidence
30.2%
27.3%
32.2%
27.8%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
43.6
%
46.3
%
35.9
%
43.9
%
18.8
%
30.2
%
30.2
%
27.9
%
27.8
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Consumers Worried about Economy
• Not a pretty picture—discouraging!
• Lack confidence that government ―gets it.‖
– Debts, Deficits, Dithering…
• Jobs coming back too slowly
• Recovery faltering, uncertain
• Small business owners very concerned• Obamacare, New Regulations (EPA+), Taxes (temporary)
• No relief in sight! A “broken economy”
© 2011, Prosper®
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 May-11 Jun-11
More Same Fewer
Employment Outlook
Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think
that there will be more, the same or fewer layoffs than at present?Adults 18+
* U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey®, JUN 08-11
9.4%*
5.4%*
9.6%*
9.1%*9.0%*
Job Situation: Complex & Worrisome
• Layoffs may not increase…(postponed hiring)
• New jobs may not either (at least not enough!)…• Need 150,000/mo. just for new entrants to labor force
• 5 people looking for every 1 job available—wrong skills too!
• Productivity gains = competitiveness—but fewer
jobs
• US manufacturing rebound good; but too few jobs
• Housing still in BIG trouble—no relief in sight• Foreclosures + Excess Home Inventory
• Tighter Financing Rules + Worried Homebuyers
• Most materials in houses made in USA—way down too
© 2011, Prosper®
Practicality in Purchasing
In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?Adults 18+
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 03-11
37.1%
47.8%
48.5%
45.0%
55.0%55.2%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
Jun-11 #s =
New June
HIGHS
Consumers worried—about their future
• Buying necessities, but inflation hurting them
• Want to spend, but are afraid
• Savings up—a very good direction
• BUT:
• Government budget cutting means cutting
government jobs
• Entitlements are ―broke‖—insolvent• Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security,
• States & State Pension Funds
© 2011, Prosper®
Effects of Escalating Pump Prices
Fluctuating Gas Prices Have Impacted My SpendingAdults 18+
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 10-11
Energy Information Administration (All Grades, All Formulations)
$3.91
Expected price per gallon at
the end of the month
45.7%
Anticipate gas prices will
continue to rise through the end
of June
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
$3.25
$3.50
$3.75
$4.00
$4.25
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Gas Prices Have Impacted Spending Avg. Retail Gasoline Prices (per gal.)
Avg
. R
eta
il G
as
olin
e P
ric
es
(p
er
ga
l.)
% I
mp
ac
ted
59.6%
Hybrid Automobiles are ―Hot‖
(only 8.9% are considering
purchasing in next 6 months)
Symbolic of Failed Policies
• Failed Policies (a partial list) • Excess Spending (TARP, Stimulus, QE1 & QE2, etc.)
• No budget, just spend, spend, spend—record deficits
• Reduced value of the US$ & we buy Oil with US$
• Warned by ―rating agencies‖…of credit downgrade
• US has enough oil/gas/coal reserves but is not
permitted to find, extract it & use them…• Alternatives are years/decades away:
Wind, Solar, Nuclear, Geothermal, Tidal. Environmentalists block
plans anyway!
• The USA is more dependent on foreign oil than ever
• Government Energy Policy is “Do nothing.”
© 2011, Prosper®
Category: May-11 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08 Category: May-11 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08
Children’s up up up up Toys/Games up up up up
Women’s Dress up up up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books up up up up
Women’s Casual up up up up Electronics up up up up
Men’s Dress up up up up Groceries up up up up
Men’s Casual up up up up Home Improvement up up up up
Shoes up up up up Lawn & Garden down up up up
HBC up up up up Home Furniture up up up up
Dining Out up down up up Home Décor up up up up
Sporting Goods up up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies up up up up
90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook(Jun-11 compared to May-11, Jun-10, Jun-09 and Jun-08)
Note: ―Up,‖ Down,‖ ―Flat‖ refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (May-11) or years (Jun-10, Jun-09, Jun-08). Diffusion Index = % Spending More -
% Spending Less.
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 08-11
Over the next 90 days (June, July and August), do you plan on spending more, the same
or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
© 2011, Prosper®
Category: Jun-07 Category: Jun-07
Children’s down Toys/Games down
Women’s Dress down CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down
Women’s Casual down Electronics down
Men’s Dress down Groceries up
Men’s Casual down Home Improvement down
Shoes down Lawn & Garden down
HBC down Home Furniture down
Dining Out down Home Décor down
Sporting Goods down Linens/Bedding/Draperies down
90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook(Jun-11 compared to PRE-RECESSION Jun-07)
Note: ―Up,‖ Down,‖ ―Flat‖ refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the prior year (Jun-07). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, JUN 07-11
Over the next 90 days (June, July and August), do you plan on spending more, the same
or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
Do increasing
food prices
explain why
consumers plan
to spend MORE?
Summary: A ―Broke‖ US Economy
• Consumers know better than government
— “live within their means” —
– Consumers still hurting from 2007
– Consumers want & need to buy, but are afraid
– Buying necessities, gas & food, modest gifts & vacations
• A recovery? Maybe, but an anemic one so far…
• Stock market has plateaued & pulled back
• Consumers fearful about their future—health care,
retirement, jobs, inflation, everything!
© 2011, Prosper®
Contact BIGresearch®
BIGresearch®
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road
Suite 200
Worthington, OH 43085
Ph: 614-846-0146
BIGinfo@bigresearch.com
Learn more about John Mariotti at: http://www.mariotti.net and read his
views weekly, at ―Telling it like it is‖: http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
For complimentary insights powered by
BIGresearch® data, visit:
www.BIGinsight.com
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