Demography and fertility related statistics 2

Sources of Demographic Data : 1. Census2. Vital Events Registers3. Surveys4. Sample Registration System

Measures of Population Projection : By “Population projections”, we mean estimating and forecasting the populationof a country or a region for a given time.

Mathematical Methods : ●● Arithmetic Growth Method●● Geometric Growth Method●● Exponential Growth Method●● Component Projection Method

DELAY THE FIRST POSTPONE THE SECOND AND PREVENT THE THIRD

Demographic process:: Fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobilityIMPORTANT FACTS:::::1)¾ th world population lives in developing country.

2) India2.4%land area but 17.56% world population, China19.96%.

3) 180 /minute population increased worldwide

4) Age pyramid --- India broad base and tapering top. Switzerland bulge at middle and narrower base

5) 1/3rd of population 15 years reproductive age potential for population growth.

6) Sex ratio:::: No. of female/ 1000 males.

7) Dependency ratio:: Young age dependency ratio—0-14 years Old age dependency ratio-- ≥ 65 years

RATING ANNUAL GROWTH RATE(%) REQUIRED YEARS FOR THE POPULATION TO DOUBLE

STATIONARY NO GROWTH --------------SLOW GROWTH <0.5 >139MODERATE GROWTH 0.5-1 (0.9 world) 139-70RAPID GROWTH 1-1.5 70-47VERY RAPID GROWTH 1.5-2 (1.8 India) 47-35

EXPLOSIVE GROWTH 2.0-2.5 35-282.5-3.0 28-233.0-3.5 23-203.5-4.0 20-18

8) Growth rate::::: CBR-CDR

9) Family size at a point of time:: total no. of child to a woman has borne at a point of time -----COMPLETED FAMILY SIZE=TFR

TWO CHILD FAMILY NORMNRR=1COUPLE PROTECTION RATE=60%

Demographic Transition : In 1929 the American demographerWarren Thompson, observed changes in birth and death ratesin industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or soand then formulated a model called “Demographic Transition”that describes population change over time.

Demographic Transition model recognizes five demographic stages:

High stationary e.g. India till 1920

Early expanding e.g. South Asia, Africa

Late expanding e.g. India , China , Singapore. Low stationary e.g. Austria, UK , Denmark, Sweden

Declining e.g. Germany, Hungary

India’s population growth during the twentieth century can be classified as follows : 1)High stationary /Pretransitional phase : 1901-1920: This period was characterized by a high birth rate and high death rate (46-49 per 1000) and growth rate was slow, close to zero.

Year 1921 year of great divide. There after growth rate steadily

2) Early expanding :::: A) Early transitional phase: 1921-1951:birth rate and death rate but BR>DR growth rate steadily ≥1 but ≤2.During this period India experienced rapid growth.

B) Mid transitional phase: 1951-2000:rapid reduction in mortality but little effect on BR…… growth rate ≥ 2 during this period. During this period India experienced explosive rapid growth.

3) Late expanding / Late transitional phase: 2001-till now…….probably up to 2045 : BR decline DR decline but BR>DR growth rate started slowing down during this period.

4) Low stationary/Post transitional phase: India is expected to enter this phase in 2045: Low BR Low DR and growth rate will be slow, close to zero.

2011 census of India

Census has been conducted in India since 1872.

The 15th Indian National census was conducted in two phases, house listing and population enumeration.

House listing phase began on April 1, 2010 and involved collection of information about all buildings. House listing Schedule contained 35 questions. Information for National Population Register was also collected in the first phase, which will be used to issue a 12-digit unique identification number to all Indians by Unique Identification Authority of India. National Population Register Household schedule contained 9 questions.

The second population enumeration phase was conducted between 9 to 28 February 2011. Population enumeration schedule contained 29 questions. 2.7 million officials visited households in about 7,000 towns and 600,000 villages, classifying the population according to gender, religion, education and occupation.

The cost of the exercise was in the region of 22bn rupees ($490m; £300m).

Census report

Provisional data from the census was released on March 31, 2011. Complete results are expected to be released in 2012

Population Total 1,210,193,422

Males 623,724,248

Females 586,469,174

Literacy Total 74.04%

Males 82.14%

Females 65.46%

Density of population

per km2 382

Sex ratio per 1000 males 940 females

Child Sex ratio(0-6 age group)

per 1000 males 914 females

Population growth—1991-200121.54% 2001-201117.64%

Literacy 2001 2011 Total 65% 74% Male 75% 82% Female 54% 65%

Sex ratio 2001 2011 T 933 940 ↓6Y 927 914

UP MOST POP.199 MSIKKIM LOWEST6,07,000THANENORTH 24 PGS POP. DISTRICT

FERTILITY(NATALITY):: ACTUAL BEARING OF CHILDREN

Age at marriage

Duration of married life

Spacing of children

Education NFHS 3 shows illiterate women TFR>1.7 times high school educated women.

Economic status

Caste and religion

Nutrition

Family planning

No. of live births during the year

Estimated mid year population1000BIRTH RATE

No. of live births during the year

Estimated mid year female population age 15-44(or 49) in the same year

1000GFR

No. of live births during the year

Estimated mid year married female population age 15-44(or 49) in the same year

1000GMFR

No. of live births during in a particular age group the year

Estimated mid year female population of the same age group

1000ASFR

No. of live births during in a particular age group the year

Estimated mid year married female population of the same age group

1000AMSFR

1000TFR

515-19

45-49ASFR

The average no. of children would be born to a woman if she experiences the same fertility pattern as the woman now in each age group through her reproductive years….

1000TMFR

515-19

45-49ASMFR

The average no. of children would be born to a married woman if she experiences the same fertility pattern as the woman now in each age group through her reproductive years….

1000GRR

515-19

45-49

ASFR FOR FEMALE LIVE BIRTH

The average no. of GIRLS would be born to a woman if she experiences the CURRENT fertility pattern through her reproductive span ASSUMING NO MORTALITY….

1000NRR

515-19

45-49

ASFR FOR FEMALE LIVE BIRTH

The average no. of GIRLS would be born to a woman if she experiences the CURRENT fertility pattern through her reproductive span ASSUMING FIXED AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY RATES….

1. CHILD WOMAN RATIO

2. PREGNANCY RATE

3. ABORTION RATE

4. MARRIAGE RATE

5. ABORTION RATIO