Demographic Processes

Explanations & Supplemental Informationfor Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project

Population Dynamics

Rate of Population Change

Rate of Population Change

Population Dynamics: Key Terms & Core Concepts

• Understanding of set of processes underlying • Births,• Deaths,• Movement into and out of given population

• Describing change in• Fertility, • Mortality, • Migration

• Understanding what might be causing changes

CORE CONCEPT: MANIFEST and LATENT FUNCTIONSMANIFEST functions of a social pattern

outcomes people consciously intend or predict from the actions they choose

the explanations they give themselvesLATENT functions of a social pattern

the outcomes that regularly occur but are neither foreseen or intended.

must be discovered through researchPOPULATION dynamics stem from BOTH

Factors Affecting FertilityLATENT

PolygynyDowry (economic)Marry late (age)Taboos about

non-marital sexual intercourse

Higher divorce ratesReligious bans

(180 days/year)Breastfeeding

MANIFESTPotions, spells, etc.Since 1850 B.C., barrier

methods of contraception used

Coitus interruptusAbortionInfanticide

(c.f. story of Moses...)

Demographic Transition

Core Concept: Demographic transition• Initial pretransition period:

• high fertility • high mortality

• Transitional period • mortality first declines • followed by decline in fertility

• Posttransition period• both fertility and mortality are low

Demographic Transition Theory

Comparison of 3 Nations:Sudan-1950

Start of first demographic transitionRapid decreases in mortality, but much later and slower

decreases in fertility, which in turn imply very rapid population growth

U.S.End of first demographic transitionAge pyramid after age 60Replacement fertility

JapanCompleted first demographic transitionBelow replacement fertility

Changes in Fertility and Mortality Around the World: A Closer Look

Immigration • U.S.: Population involves in- and out-migration• Japan: Very small immigrant population

Population momentum• U.S.: Continued slow growth• Japan: Initial and then decreased growth

MIGRATION

Aging of Baby Boomers

Baby Boom bulge in middle of pyramid. Long lives means many more elderly in future years.

The Epidemiological Transition

First demographic transition• Impacts kinds of disease and health conditions affecting

countries

Epidemiological transition• Healh transition of population

• from health conditions primarily involving infectious disease • to health conditions primarily involving chronic disease

Factors Affecting Demographics

Number of children born to women in the 40-44 age group in the USA

16

Why 40-44?

First bar = 1976(What year were these women 20 years old?)

Last bar = 1998(What year were these women 20 years old?)

What pattern?

Preferences Concerning Gender of Children, 1941 and 2000, U.S.A.

17Light Saber

Planning fora world with many elders & few babies.

Aging economies: 2010

Aging economies: 2040

This pattern is very likely, unless something occurs that causes the death rate of the elderly to increase dramatically.

Source: United Nations FPA: Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and A Challengehttp://www.unfpa.org/webdav/site/global/shared/documents/publications/2012/UNFPA-Main-Report-Part2.pdf

Will some countries age more quickly than others?

Japan (if fertility remains at very low subreplacement levels)• Rapid population aging• Rapid population declineDemographic Winter (Friday’s film) will report fertility figures for some of European countries that are well below 2.0, some as low as 1.1 children per woman (population will be half its current size in 33 years).

Aging and Population Dynamics

Aging economies: 2070

This pattern is somewhat less certain. No nation has ever reversed the decline in birth-rate. However, governments in Japan, Russia and Sweden are trying to boost their birth rates. Such policies might have an impact.

Possible

World

Population

Growth

Curves

Some social scientists have great concern that population decline will have economic and social consequences that will be hard to live with. They produced a film titled Demographic Winter.

What are the patterns of childbearing?

What are the economic impacts?

What are the social trends that generated and sustain the pattern?

Is this a problem?

If so, what policies are needed?

Demographic Winter

The search for causes is seeking explanation

If the situation is considered a problem, the resolution is not necessarily the reversal of the original circumstances. Example: Obesity is a growing problem because we

have more, cheaper food than any time in history. No one suggests going back to less efficient agriculture to cure obesity – but other policies do try to have an impact on the problem.

The facts in the film are solid. It is designed to be provocative so that people think.

Policy choice

Explanations & Supplemental Informationfor Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project

Population Dynamics