California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS (SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS

(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)

LESSONS FROM PAST LESSONS FROM PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESNOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

PAST NOTABLE PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

LOMA PRIETA, CALIFORNIALOMA PRIETA, CALIFORNIA

OCTOBER 17, 1989OCTOBER 17, 1989

EARTHQAKES ARE EARTHQAKES ARE DYNAMIC DYNAMIC LABORATORIESLABORATORIES FOR FOR

LEARNING AND CATALYSTS LEARNING AND CATALYSTS FOR FOR BUILDING CAPACITY BUILDING CAPACITY

FOR FOR DISASTER-INTELLIGENT DISASTER-INTELLIGENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT

COMMUNITESCOMMUNITES

LOCATIONLOCATION

The epicenter was located near The epicenter was located near Loma Prieta peak in the Loma Prieta peak in the Santa Santa Cruz MountainsCruz Mountains, approximately , approximately 14 km (9 mi) northeast of Santa 14 km (9 mi) northeast of Santa Cruz and Cruz and 96 km (60 mi) south-96 km (60 mi) south-southeast of San Franciscosoutheast of San Francisco

OCCURRENCEOCCURRENCE

CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS (SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS

(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)

The Loma Prieta Earthquake was The Loma Prieta Earthquake was Forecast Forecast (USGS, 1988)(USGS, 1988)

The Loma Prieta Earthquake was The Loma Prieta Earthquake was Forecast Forecast (USGS, 1988)(USGS, 1988)

Schematic Diagram of the Loma Schematic Diagram of the Loma Prieta Earthquake MechanismPrieta Earthquake Mechanism

Schematic Diagram of the Loma Schematic Diagram of the Loma Prieta Earthquake MechanismPrieta Earthquake Mechanism

NORTHNORTHNORTHNORTHWESTWESTWESTWEST

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Rupture Rupture

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Rupture Rupture

NORTHNORTHNORTHNORTHWESTWESTWESTWEST

Mw 6.9; Ms 7.1Mw 6.9; Ms 7.1

Depth: 18 km (11 miles)Depth: 18 km (11 miles)

5:04 pm local time5:04 pm local time

Soil amplification Soil amplification effects in effects in San Francisco Bay regionSan Francisco Bay region

SAN FRANCISCO BAY SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION REGION (EPICENTER: TOP LEFT)(EPICENTER: TOP LEFT)

SOIL AMPLIFICATION MAP: SAN SOIL AMPLIFICATION MAP: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONFRANCISCO BAY REGION

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

IMPACTS IMPACTS

BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

SAN FRANCISCO BAY SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONREGION

Buildings and infrastructure of Buildings and infrastructure of all types and agesall types and ages, constructed , constructed in accordance with various in accordance with various codes/standards, codes/standards, FAILED in FAILED in the the San Francisco Bay Region.San Francisco Bay Region.

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR PLANNING FOR THE THE INEVITABLE INEVITABLE STRONG GROUND STRONG GROUND MOTION MOTION IS IS ESSENTIAL FOR ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.RESILIENCE.

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

PROBABILISTIC MAPS PROBABILISTIC MAPS OF OF PEAK PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) AND AND SPECTRAL ACCELERATION SPECTRAL ACCELERATION (SA) (SA) ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN

BUILDING BUILDING CODESCODES AND AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDSSTANDARDS

GROUND SHAKING GROUND SHAKING (PEAK (PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION)GROUND ACCELERATION)

GROUND SHAKING WESTERN GROUND SHAKING WESTERN USAUSA

PGA: SAN FRANCISCO BAY PGA: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONREGION

SA 0.3 S: SAN FRANCISCO SA 0.3 S: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION (BAY REGION (SHORT BLDGS.)SHORT BLDGS.)

SA 1.0 S: SAN FRANCISCO SA 1.0 S: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION BAY REGION ((TALL BLDGS,)TALL BLDGS,)

LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKELOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKELOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKELOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE 1,300 BUILDINGS 1,300 BUILDINGS

DESTROYEDDESTROYED 20,000 BUILDINGS 20,000 BUILDINGS

DAMAGEDDAMAGED 3,500 BUSINESSES3,500 BUSINESSES

DAMAGEDDAMAGED TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION

LOSSES ALONE: LOSSES ALONE: $1.8 $1.8 BILLION BILLION

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY BUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICTBUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICT

VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY BUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICTBUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICT

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR PLANNING FOR THE THE INEVITABLE INEVITABLE GROUND FAILURE GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

GROUND FAILURE, GROUND FAILURE, NOTNOT SURFACE FAULT RUPTURESURFACE FAULT RUPTURE

LATERAL SPREADING: SAN LATERAL SPREADING: SAN FRANCISCO WHARF AREAFRANCISCO WHARF AREA

LATERAL SPREADING: SAN LATERAL SPREADING: SAN FRANCISCO WHARF AREAFRANCISCO WHARF AREA

LIQUEFACTION: MARINA LIQUEFACTION: MARINA DISTRICTDISTRICT

LIQUEFACTION: MARINA LIQUEFACTION: MARINA DISTRICTDISTRICT

AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE MARINA DISTRICTMARINA DISTRICT

AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE MARINA DISTRICTMARINA DISTRICT

CYPRESS FREEWAY: A CYPRESS FREEWAY: A PROTECTION NIGHTMARE PROTECTION NIGHTMARE

CYPRESS FREEWAY: A CYPRESS FREEWAY: A PROTECTION NIGHTMARE PROTECTION NIGHTMARE

FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMAREBRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMARE

FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMAREBRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMARE

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSE RESPONSE IS IS ESSENTIAL FOR ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT 5:04 PM IN THE REGION5:04 PM IN THE REGION

POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT 5:04 PM IN THE REGION5:04 PM IN THE REGION

CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN

EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE

FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE CYPRESS FREEWAYCYPRESS FREEWAY

FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE CYPRESS FREEWAYCYPRESS FREEWAY

FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 KM FROM EPICENTERKM FROM EPICENTER

FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 KM FROM EPICENTERKM FROM EPICENTER

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONRECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES TOOK TIMEPOWER OUTAGES TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES TOOK TIMEPOWER OUTAGES TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIMEOAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIMEOAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIME

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYTOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYTOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INSURANCE SPREADS THE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY BY RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”NORMAL”

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INSURANCE SPREADS THE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY BY RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”NORMAL”

PLANNING FOR THE FUTUREPLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

A NEW GENERATION OF A NEW GENERATION OF POLICIES AND POLICIES AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES FOR FOR SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF THE USA. THE USA.

SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT: SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT: BASE ISOLATIONBASE ISOLATION

SAN FRANCISCO CITY HALL: SAN FRANCISCO CITY HALL: BASE ISOLATIONBASE ISOLATION

SUMMARY OF IMPACTSSUMMARY OF IMPACTS

62 DEATHS (Mostly at Cypress Freeway) 62 DEATHS (Mostly at Cypress Freeway) 3,757 INJURIES3,757 INJURIES 8,000 HOMELESS8,000 HOMELESS $5.6 BILLION PROPERTY DAMAGE WITH $5.6 BILLION PROPERTY DAMAGE WITH

THE FIRST $1.8 BILLION EARTHQUAKE THE FIRST $1.8 BILLION EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATIONINSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION

MAJOR FLAWS IN MAJOR FLAWS IN PROTECTION OF PROTECTION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

PRIMARY SOURCES OF PRIMARY SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON THE LOMA INFORMATION ON THE LOMA

PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: 1) 1) The US Geological Survey, 2) The US Geological Survey, 2) The California Geological Survey, The California Geological Survey,

and 3) the Earthquake Engineering and 3) the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Research Institute