Andy Catley: Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The future of pastoralism in the...
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- 1. Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The
future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa Andy Catley September
2010
- 2. Dominant narratives, 2010
- Pastoralism in crisis(again)
- Unprecedented evidence that climate change drives pastoralist
vulnerability
- Destitution, food aid, safety nets
- The settlement narrative (still) especially government
- Conflict, counter-insurgency, counter terrorism
- Histories of pastoralism elsewhere (N Africa, Middle East)
- Growing commercialization of livestock production & trade,
and benefits by wealth group
- 3. History lessons
- Pastoralist areas rarely absorb excess people. Excess people
are sloughed off - pushed out of pastoralism and pastoralist
areas
- Commercialization and shifting livestock ownership from poor to
rich
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- Especially high export areas (Somalia, parts of Ethiopia and
Sudan)
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- Displacement processes e.g. Somali central rangeland, from
1980s
- Declining access to rangeland e.g.
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- Commercial (subsidized) irrigation
- Pastoralism survives in a more commercialized form larger herds
(units) owed by fewer people cf. trends in agriculture
elsewhere
- 4. Trend analysis, from 1922
- Human population doubling every 25-35 years
- Decreasing access to productive rangeland
- Commercialization of pastoralism livestock assets from poor to
wealthier groups
- OutcomesIncreasing impact of dry seasons and drought
Land policies People moving up People moving out
- 5. Trends Somaliland, 1922 to 2009
- 6. Policy implications
- Livestock exports for poverty reduction,but benefits mainly
wealthier herders, traders etc.
- Safety nets and the economic logic of retaining increasing
numbers of destitute/poor in drylands
- Alternative livelihoods for a few, but limited non-livestock
economic opportunities for most