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1 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
Addressing Great Lakes Issues With
Biophysical M odels
M ark Rowe Assistant Research Scientist
SNRE CILER University of M ichigan
2 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65
Warm and cool climate meteorological scenarios
Measured quagga mussel clearance rates
3-D hydrodynamic model (FVCOM) vertical mixing
1-D phytoplankton - quagga mussel model
Cool spring Warm spring
Mus
sels
N
o m
usse
ls
Chl
orop
hyll
Quagga mussels have greater impact on Lake M ichigan spring bloom under warm spring climate scenario
3 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
1994-95 2000 2005 2010
Apr
il re
mot
e-se
nsin
g C
hlor
ophy
ll D
reis
seni
d fil
ter f
eedi
ng
inte
nsity
M.D. Rowe, D.R. Obenour, T.F. Nalepa, H.A. Vanderploeg, F. Yousef, W.C. Kerfoot. 2015. Freshwater Biology, 60(11): 2270-85
Chlorophyll depletion in Lake M ichigan is spatially associated with quagga mussel filter feeding intensity
4 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll
April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L Satellite | 3D Biophysical model
Effect of phosphorus loads
Effect of dreissenid mussels
5 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
Improved Lake Erie short term HAB forecast
Improved model simulates vertical distribution of buoyant cyanobacteria
Nowcast Five-day forecast
M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K. Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, in prep
Time, days
Dep
th, m
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