2012 fire season wrap up & 2013 outlook - Clark Fork Basin

2012 Fire Season Wrap-up & 2013 OutlookAlyssa Stewart

DNRC Assistant Center Manager, HIDCastewart@mt.gov 406-449-5475

The Northern Rockies Geographic Area

Northern Idaho, Montana, Yellowstone National Park, North Dakota and a small portion of South Dakota.

http://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc

So far in 2012 there have been 3,272 fires for 1,407,026 acres, including 159 large fires in the NRGA – at least one every month

except February.

2012 Fire Cause:60% human, 40%

lightning, on par with 10-yr average, 58% human,

42% lightning

Clark Fork River Basin

An estimated 527 fires for 148,154 acres burned in the Clark Fork River Basin.

This is 16% of the fires and 11% of the total acres burned in the NRGA.

Fall Moisture and Preexisting Drought

Conditions

Winter Snowpack

Spring Factor

July Temperatures

and Precipitation

Live/Dead Fuel Moisture

Summer Convection

ENSO State

Factors that Influence Fire Season SeverityFactors that Influence Fire Season Severity

>

Snowpack Snowpack is generally is generally 50%50%--75% of 75% of

normalnormal

Fall Precip Fall Precip was 50was 50--90% 90% of normalof normal

Early Early Spring?Spring?

Quick melt Quick melt off of off of

snowpack?snowpack?

??

2011-2012 snowpack normal to a little less

2011 Fall a little dry but not too bad.

Spring was dry!

Very dry & hot June, September

driest in MT history.

Very convective summer.

100-hr and 1000-hr fuel moistures

largely below normal and set new minimums

Why was 2012 a record year in the NRGA?

Energy Release Component & 1000-hr Fuel Graphs by Predictive Service Area

Energy Release Component (ERC): Composite value that relates fuel moisture to potential heat release per unit of flaming area, predictor

of fire intensity – how hot a fire could burn. Based on worst case scenario.

All graphs for Fuel Model G, dense conifer – includes 1000 hour fuels that are less susceptible to daily weather changes like a flashy fuel –

national standard.

Northern Panhandle Idaho/Northwest Montana

Southern Panhandle Idaho/Western Montana

North Central Idaho/Southwest Montana

Glacier National Park/Wildernesses

Big Hole Montana

Fire danger takes current and previous weather, fuel type, and live and dead fuel moisture into account.

Fall Moisture and Preexisting Drought

Conditions

Winter Snowpack

Spring Factor

July Temperatures

and Precipitation

Live/Dead Fuel Moisture

Summer Convection

ENSO State

Factors that Influence Fire Season SeverityFactors that Influence Fire Season Severity

>

Snowpack Snowpack is generally is generally 50%50%--75% of 75% of

normalnormal

Fall Precip Fall Precip was 50was 50--90% 90% of normalof normal

Early Early Spring?Spring?

Quick melt Quick melt off of off of

snowpack?snowpack?

??

2013 Outlook?