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25th AnnualGlobal Power Markets
Conference
Brave New WorldPreparing for a Post-Carbon Future
April 11 – 13, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada
Peter MaloneyChief Editor, Platts Global Power Report
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Bill Number Sponsor(s) Cap & trade Status Comment
American Clean Energy and Security Act H.B. 2454 Waxman-Markey yes
passed out of House June 26
Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act S. 1733 Kerry-Boxer yes
passed out of Env. & Pub. Works Comit. Nov. 5
Dept. of Ag. Handles offsets
American Clean Energy Leadership S. 1462 Bingaman no
passed by Energy & Nat. Res. Comit. June 17 energy only
Clean Energy Partnerships Act S. 2729 Stabebnow no
referred to Sen. Env. & Pub. Works Comit. outline for offsets
Clean Energy Act S. 2776 Alexander-Webb nointroduced Nov. 1, 2009
nuclear power, loan guarantees
Carbon Limits and Energy for American's Renewal Act S. 2877 Cantwell-Collins no
introduced Dec.1, 2009; referred to finance committee cap and dividend
draft naKerry-Graham-
Liebermann unknown draft
US Climate change/energy bills
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Climate Hot Air Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
105th(1997-98)
106th(1999-00)
107th(2001-02)
108th(2003-04)
109th(2005-06)
110th(2007-08)
Congress
leg
isla
tive
init
iati
ves
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Electricity demandthree year rolling average % growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: Energy Information Administration
Period Annual growth
1950s 9.8
1960s 7.3
1970s 4.7
1980s 2.9
1990s 2.4
2000-2008 0.9
2008-2035 1.0
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Spot on-peak power prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3/3/
2008
5/3/
2008
7/3/
2008
9/3/
2008
11/3/
2008
1/3/
2009
3/3/
2009
5/3/
2009
7/3/
2009
9/3/
2009
11/3/
2009
1/3/
2010
$/M
W-m
on
th
Mass Hub
PJM Western HubNI Hub
Into SouthernSP15
Spot natural gas prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
3/3/
2008
5/3/
2008
7/3/
2008
9/3/
2008
11/3/
2008
1/3/
2009
3/3/
2009
5/3/
2009
7/3/
2009
9/3/
2009
11/3/
2009
1/3/
2010
$MM
Btu
AlgonquinColumbia Gas AppSoCal GasChicagoTransco Zone-3
A double whammy on pricing
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
• Acciona• AES Corp.• Cannon Power• enXco • E.ON• Eurus• EverPower• First Wind
• Heritage Sustainable Energy• Horizon Wind Energy• Iberdrola• Invenergy• John Deere• NaturEner• Next Era Energy Resources• Puget Sound Energy• Valero
Recipients of cash grants in lieu of PTCs under the ARRAtotal awards as of April 2010, $3 billion
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
• Kahuku Wind Power, $117 million, wind farm
• SAGE Electrochromics, $72 million, energy efficient window factory
• BrightSource Energy, $1.4 billion, solar power project
• Vogtle (Georgia Power, Oglethorpe Power, Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia,Dalton, Ga. ), $8.3 billion, two nuclear power units
• Solyndra, $535 million, cylindrical solar PV panel factory
• Beacon Power, $43 million, flywheel energy storage plant
• Nordic Windpower, $16 million, wind turbine assembly factory
• Red River Environmental Products, $245 million, activated carbon factory
• Ford Motor, $5.9 billion, more fuel efficient cars
• Nissan, $1.4 billion, electric cars and battery packs
• Tesla Motors, $465 million, battery packs and electric drive trains
• Fisker Automotive, $528.7 million, plug-in hybrid vehicles
Federal loan guarantee commitments
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Power plants under construction in the US, by fuel
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MW
COAL
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Solar
WIND
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Power plants in development, by fuel
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MW
COAL
Natural Gas
Nuclear
SOLAR
WIND
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
• Smart grid technologies
• Demand side management and energy efficiency
• New solar panels and solar cells
• Carbon capture and storage
• Flywheel storage
• Battery storage
• Electric vehicles
• Hybrid vehicles
Brave new technologies
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
David Crane,
President, Chief Executive
Officer
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
12
South Central
Western
Northeast
TexasCombined Scale1
Gas2,130MW
99%
Oil3,715 MW
53%
Gas1,430 MW
20%
Coal1,870 MW
27%
Coal7,560 MW
32%
Oil3,715 MW
16%
Nuclear1,175 MW
5%
1 Includes 115 MW as part of NRG’s Thermal assets. For combined scale, approximately 2,095 MW is dual-fuel capable. Reflects only domestic generation capacity as of December 31, 2009
Wind 345 MW
3%
Nuclear1,175 MW
10%
Coal
4,180 MW
37%Gas5,640 MW
50%Gas
10,660 MW45%Renewables
365 MW2%
Solar20 MW<1%
Coal1,495 MW52%
Gas1,355 MW
48%
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
13
Fuel Supply
Fuel Transportation
Power Generation
Transmission Distribution Retail(Customer)
• Oil, gas, coal companies
• Common carriers: Pipelines, Trains, Ships
• Investor and Government Owned Utilities
• Merchant Generator(NRG, etc.)
NRG
• From Generator to Distribution substation
• From Distribution substation to home or business
• Residential, commercial, and industrial
Reliant Energy
NRG US Wholesale generation totaling 23,475 MW (1)
• 10,660 MW gas
• 7,560 MW coal
• 3,715 MW oil
• 1,175 MW nuclear
• 365 MW renewables
NRG: The center of the power industry value chain.
(1) MW data as of December 31, 2009
Fortune 500– Ranked 12th Fastest Growing Company (2009)
Fortune 500– Ranked in top 10% for “Best Investment” (2008)
Platt’s 2007 Recipient of Energy Company and Industry Leader of the Year
Listed: NYSE (NRG)
Market Cap.: ~$6 billion; Employees: ~4,300
Generating Assets: ~23,500 MW, primarily in four domestic regions
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
14
Fossil fuels go to the customer, customers need to go to Renewables
ResourceDark=HigherLight=Lower
Renewables are:• Smaller• Broader• More local• Situationally dependent
Wind, SolarDistributed
Wind
MAB1
Biomass CHPPlasma
BiomassCorridor
RegionalCenters of Excellence
SolarPV
Solar CSP
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Jack A. Fusco,President, Chief Executive
Officer
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Southeast6,104 MW
25%
North3,350 MW
14%
West7,854 MW
31% Texas7,487 MW
30%
Baseload
4,080 MW
16%
Peaking
5,145 MW
21%
Intermediate
15,570 MW
63%
National Portfolio of nearly 25,000 MW
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Calpine is the nation’s largest baseload renewable, natural gasand cogeneration power provider
Calpine is the nation’s largest baseload renewable, natural gasand cogeneration power provider
Modern
-
10
20
30
40
50
CPN DYN RRI NRG MIR
Age
(Ye
ars)
Efficient
Source: Energy Velocity (2008). Not adjusted for steam, and excluding non-fossil fuel generation.
Note: All DYN figures are shown pro forma, adjusted to reflect estimated impact of the sale of certain assets to LS Power during 2009.
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
CPN DYN MIR NRG RRI
CO
2 lb
s. /
MW
h
Clean
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
CPN NRG DYN RRI MIR
2008
Gen
erat
ion
(MW
h)
ScaleSource: Energy Velocity (2008).Source: Energy Velocity (2008).
Source: 2008 SEC filings, Energy Velocity.
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
CPN DYN RRI NRG MIR
Hea
t Ra
te (
btu/
KWh)
Our steam-adjusted heat rate is 7,231
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Calpine: Positioned for the FutureCalpine: Positioned for the Future
TrendImpact on CCTG Fleet
Impact on Coal Fleet
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Michael G. Morris,Chairman, President and
CEO
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Serving 5.2 million customers in 11
states
ColumbusSouthern
Power20%
AppalachianPower13%
Indiana &Michigan
16%
All Others6%
PublicService of Oklahoma
5%
SouthwesternElectricPower
9%
Texas7%
KentuckyPower
2%
2009 Earnings Contribution
Residential32%
Commercial27%
Wholesale * 11%
2009 Retail Load Fuel Mix**
Nuclear6%
Natural Gas 22%
Hydro/Wind 6%
** Based on Capacity
AEP’s Regulated Utility PlatformAEP’s Regulated Utility Platform
OhioPower22%
Industrial30%
* Wholesale includes sales to municipal and cooperative power systems, other
wholesale, and other retail sales
Coal 66%
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
ACTIVE ACTIVE PROJECTSPROJECTS
FUTURE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
SPPSPP ERCOTERCOT PJMPJM PJM/PJM/MISOMISO
345 kV ERCOT Expansion
Partner: MidAmerican Energy (50%)
Estimated Cost: $1.4 billion
ROE: 9.96%
ETT COD: 2010-2017
170 miles of 765 kV
Partners: OG&E (50%) & Electric Transmission America (50%)
Estimated Cost: $500 million
ROE: 12.8%
Tallgrass COD: 2013-14
110 miles of 765 kV
Partners: Westar (50%) & Electric Transmission America (50%)
Estimated Cost: $400 million
ROE: 12.8%
Prairie Wind COD: 2013-14
275 miles of 765 kV
Partner: Allegheny Energy (50%)
Estimated Cost: $1.2 billion
ROE: 14.3%
PATH-WV COD: 2014
240 miles of 765 kV
Partner: Duke Energy (50%)
Estimated Cost: $1 billion
ROE: 12.54%
Pioneer COD: 2015
Regional Expansion of 765 kV Backbone
SPP EHV Overlay
Interregional EHV & Wind Integration Study
Partners: ATC, Exelon, MidAmerican Energy, Northwestern Energy, Xcel Energy
SMARTransmission Study
Additional CREZ spend of ~ $1.1 billion (COD 2012-2013, subject to a 6-month routing approval)
Other Projects Pending Transfer of ~ $600 million (COD 2010-2013)
ETT COD: various
Regional Expansion of 765 kV, 500 kV and 345 kV systems
PJM Expansion
700 miles of Proposed 765 kV
EHV Michigan/Ohio
SPPSPP ERCOTERCOT PJMPJM PJM/PJM/MISOMISO
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Renewables Portfolio*
Wind PSO – 5 PPAs 591 MW SWEPCo – 1 PPA 79 MW APCo – 4 PPAs 376 MW I&M – 2 PPAs 150 MW KPCo – 1 PPA 100 MW AEP Ohio – 2 PPAs 110 MWTotal Regulated 1,406 MW
AEPEP – owned 311 MW AEPEP – 2 PPAs 177 MWNon-regulated 487 MW
Hydro (run-of-river)Regulated, owned/PPA 364 MW
SolarRegulated - PPA 10 MW
* Includes owned assets and long-term purchased power agreements (PPA)
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
Zin Smati,President, Chief Executive
Officer
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
24
Leader in ElectricityWorld’s largest IPP#5 power producer in EuropeCommitted to renewables: 13GW of renewable production at present
Leader in Natural Gas#1 purchaser in Europe#1 transporter and distributor in Europe#2 operator of European storage
Leader in LNGTrans-Atlantic leader in LNG industry, largest LNG tanker fleet#1 importer & buyer in Europe#1 importer into the U.S.
N o r t hN o r t h A m e r i c a A m e r i c a
Revenue: €4.6 bn Revenue: €4.6 bn 5,300 emp.5,300 emp.
S o u t hS o u t hA m e r i c aA m e r i c aRevenue: €2.6 Revenue: €2.6 bn 3,050 emp.bn 3,050 emp.
E u r o p eE u r o p eRevenue: €68.6 bn Revenue: €68.6 bn
181,920 emp.181,920 emp.
A f r i c aA f r i c aRevenue: €0.9 Revenue: €0.9 bn bn 3,530 emp.3,530 emp.
A s i a &A s i a &P a c i f i cP a c i f i cRevenue: €3.2 bn Revenue: €3.2 bn 6,200 emp.6,200 emp.
2009 revenues: €79.9 billion€79.9 billion 2009 EBITDA: €14.0 billion€14.0 billion Global workforce: 200,000 employees200,000 employees Worldwide Generating Capacity: 72,663 MW72,663 MW
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
25
Coal12%
Gas67%
Renewable21%
Current Fuel MixPower Generation
Northeast•Power Generation•LNG Importation•Gas Sales•Retail Sales•RECsTexas
•North American HQ•Power Generation•Gas Storage•Retail Sales
Canada•Power Generation•Operate 2 of the largest wind farms in eastern Canada
TX14%
Southeast28%Northeast
46%
Others12%
Current Geographic MixPower Generation
Mexico•Gas LDCs•Gas Pipelines•Gas Sales•Power Generation
One of the largest IPP’s #3 biomass generator in U.S.
#1 private gas transmission company and #2 LDC in Mexico
#1 importer of LNG in U.S. #2 C&I electricity retailer in U.S.
OfficePower PlantRenewable
LNG Regas
E & P Region
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
26
Buy vs. BuildBased on current economic circumstances – Buy more than Build to deepen and diversify•There are a number of good opportunities in the energy sector.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is the energy of choice to drive transition to a low-carbon economy.• Solidify our LNG and natural gas stronghold positions in New England and
Mexico through existing and new gas supply and sales opportunities.• Continue growing in natural gas-fired generation (recent GDF SUEZ example:
Astoria Energy I and II).
Renewables
Renewable energy is a strategic commitment of GDF SUEZ. We will develop bothgreenfield and acquisition opportunities to increase our renewable energy presence.• Further improve the carbon position of our fleet.• Avail ourselves to stimulus funding in U.S. and RFPs in Canada and Mexico.
How Is GDF SUEZ Positioning Itself in North America for the Future?
Global Power Markets 2010: CEO Round Table
27
Brave New WorldPreparing for a Post-Carbon Future
25th Annual Global Power Markets
Conference
April 11 – 13, 2010, Las Vegas, Nevada
Questions?
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