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In many organizations we examine the output of a system, plan or strategy to determine if it was successful. “Where are we” and “is this where we want to be”, the evaluation of outcomes, is of course a critical to the learning capability of any organization. Unfortunately, a myopic focus on a goal/outcome driven approach has resulted in many organizations not be able to answer a related question “How did we get here?” Organizations who make the effort to be mindful of decisions, and relate those decisions more clearly to outcome become more effective and learn faster than. Jabe Bloom will describe how organizations can be more mindful of, who is making decisions, how decisions are made, the effects of decision fatigue and establishing a Decision Economy to begin valuing and distributing decisions more effectively.
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Decision Economies
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Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
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#LKSE14
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No man treats a motor car as foolishly as he treats another human being. When the car will not go, he does not attribute its annoying behavior to sin, he does not say, "You are a wicked motorcar, and I shall not give you any more petrol until you go." He attempts to find out what is
wrong and set it right. !
-Bertrand Russell
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What is the Problem?
What Might We Do About it?
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The Problem
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We sail within a vast sphere, ever drifting in uncertainty, driven
from end to end. !
-Blaise Pascal
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Latin decisionem (nominative decision) "a decision, settlement,
agreement"
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to settle a dispute
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decidere "to decide, determine," literally "to cut off,"
from de-"off" (see de-)+caedere "to cut"
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Closure
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Commitment
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Rational Actor
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Rational Choice Theory
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It has been said that man is a rational
animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this.
-Russell
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Bounded Rationality
limited by; Information access Cognitive abilities
Finite Time
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Biased Rationality
Regular measurable deviation from rational judgement caused by
cognitive or motivational influences
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Jelly Test
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Decision Fatigue
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Let’s Prioritize The Backlog!
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Right Uncertain Wrong
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Right Wrong
Uncertain
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The Problem of Expertise
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Knowledge can only be volunteered it cannot be conscripted.
!We only know what we know when we need to know
it. !
Everything is fragmented !
The way we know things is not the way we report we know things.
!We always know more than we can say, and we will
always say more than we can write down.
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Information, skill and knowledge are embedded in networks and
relationships. !
Individuals, instead of “owning” information, attract, translate and
know how to and where to access to the information that
emerges in the networks around them.
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Peter’s PrincipleIn a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his
level of incompetence ... in time every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to
carry out its duties ... Work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their
level of incompetence.
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Peter’s Corollary
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Box Packing Algorithm
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So Distributed Decision Making Then?
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The Disempowerment
Spiral
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Where & When
Decision Economies &
Real Options
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Economies
An economy or economic system consists of the production, distribution or trade, and consumption of limited goods and services by different agents in a given
geographical location.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy
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Mindful Decisions
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How Many Decisions Can I Make In A Day?
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Start with the noticing when asked to decide
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Interesting Questions
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Why Do You Ask?
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Journal
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Safe Decisions
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Mission Command
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Strategy
Operating
Tactical
Experiment
Task
Quarters
Month
Week
Days
Hours
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What Are You Doing? !
Why?
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Strategy
Operating
Tactical
Experiment
Task
Quarters
Month
Week
Days
Hours
Pop The Why Stack
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Information is the resolution of uncertainty.
!
-Claude Shannon
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Information Arrival Process (time changes everything)
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Ideal Delivery
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Options
Information Arrival
Ideal Delivery
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Start Deadline
Bad Decisions
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Uninformed Speculative
Risk (as Cost of Delay)
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Aleatory Uncertainty!
Intrinsic randomness of phenomenon
Cannot be reduced
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Epistemic Uncertainty
More Information Would Reduce our Uncertainty
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Uncertainty about how to Classify our Uncertainty
!
(it is turtles all the way down)
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PROTIP (for Human Systems Thinkers) !
Human Error is Aleatory !
(systems that assume infallibility of human reason WILL fail)
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Epistemic vs
Pragmatic ActionDAVID KIRSH AND PAUL MAGLIO
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Value Increment
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Pragmatic Value or
Information
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Real Options
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BOUNDING Uncertainty
(I thought you said humans dislike uncertainty?)
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Options expire
Never commit early unless you know why
Options have value
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Obligation vs
a Right (commitment vs option)
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If the time it takes to recover, is greater than the time you can survive, you die.
!
Which means you need more options.
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Converting a Commitment into
an Option
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100% Utilization ==
NO OPTIONS
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Given there are NO other OPTIONS, if you do not have good information
you are about to convert a SPECULATIVE Option into a COMMITMENT
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Additional Options May Allow You to Avoid
Speculative Commitments
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Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
When will we be done?
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Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
When does the Option Expire?
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Estimates are a function of Duration and
Uncertainty (often reduced to a single
variable duration)
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Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
How Much Uncertainty is there?
????
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Decision
Commitment
Option
Pragmatic Action
Epistemic Action
Result
Option Expiration
Success Criteria
Expiration Criteria
Bounds the
Option
Unbounded Uncertainty
Causes Stress
Defer Decision
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Conclusions
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The temporal and social distance between relevant
information and those making decisions impacts the quality, efficiency and timeliness of those decisions
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More Options More Value !
More Time More Information !
More Information & Options Better Decisions
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Be Mindful Of How System
Drives Decision Making
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Bound Uncertainty !
Create Options !
Defer Commitments
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Donald Reinertsen
David Snowden
Chris Matts
Olav Maassen
Troy Magennis
David Anderson
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blog http://jabe.co
Send Anonymous Feedback http://sayat.me/jabebloom
Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
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