Canola technical analysis

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Canola

Simon Joy KoshyFutures TraderAl Ghurair Resources

CONTENT

• Daily Charts

• Weekly Chart

• Seasonal Chart

• Conclusion

JULY CANOLA DAILY CHART

• Last week Prices have tested the 500 level due to weather risk premium is seen building in Prices. The New Crop futures have rallied almost CAD$ 30/MT last week and CAD$ 61/MT from its lows seen in 17th April.

• Technical indicators have entered into Overbought territory and need to see if correction can occur in due time.

• The areas of support will be at 484.20 followed by the previous high level,472. A close below 460 is required for a bearish picture. Currently trend is bullish short term

JULY CANOLA WEEKLY CHART• A Close above/below 500 level is critical at this point. 76.8% retrace level is at 498.

Risk on the upside lies at 100% retrace level, 525 on a 525/408.6 decline ratio.

• Watch out for the 50% retrace level, 466-467 for a trend reversal

NOV DAILY CHART• So far prices have rallied nicely and taking a break to hold at these levels. Lets see if this could come true.

• Last week we saw a trigger sell on Tuesday,2nd June which made a Low for the day at 466.60. This will be the key support level for now. Resistance lies above 500 till 510

CANOLA SEASONAL CHART• Seasonally Canola tends to go higher during June-July period and

commences to fall from Mid July till End September.

CANOLA SPREAD CHART• The Nearby Spread Chart seems to near bottom. Even to slightly carry can

be seen. There is a probability for spreads to widen back to 6-7

CONCLUSIONS• The Bulls have mounted an impressive move and look to be in control

at the moment.

• Canola futures have rallied more than $ 60 from its lows seen in April

• Weather Premium is seen building in prices

• Resistance lies at 525 on RSN with Support at 472

• Resistance lies at 510 on RSX with Support at 466.60

• Seasonally Canola tends to be higher during June-Mid July and starts to fall from July end till September End

• Volatility is seen very high

• Overall Bias

THANK YOU