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Marvin R. ClarkManaging Principal
Chief Economist and Strategist
ISM Diversity SummitOmni Hotel
February 3, 2010San Diego, California
Monsoon Wealth Management
2010 Economic Preview:V or W or U or √ or L
1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY
2008 & 2009 Review2008 2009
Bear StearnsIndy MacFannie Mae Freddie MacLehman Bros.Breaking the BuckTARP6% Contraction
President ObamaUnemploymentFalling Stock MarketNew LowsMarch RallyForeclosuresGreen ShootsStimulus Dollars
1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXoNE14U_zM
Post WWII US Economic TheoriesJohn Maynard KeynesHigher TaxesGovernment
SpendingSocial Safety NetsUnion WagesUniversal Health
CareRedistribution of
Wealth
Supply-Side EconomicsLower TaxesSmaller
GovernmentFree MarketsNo minimum wage
lawFew regulationsBuyer beware
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MAJOR CAUSES of Post WWII Deflation• Falling oil prices 1981-2000• Falling interest rates 1981-2008• Deregulation• Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007• The information and digital age• Personal computer 1981• NAFTA• Globalization• The Internet• Cheap Capital1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
MAJOR CAUSES Of Post WW II Inflation
Great Society Programs 1964-1968Vietnam War 1959-1975Suspending the gold standard 1971The 1st oil embargo 1973Inexperienced workforce 1972-
1982Antiquated manufacturing facilitiesThe 2nd oil embargo 1979Excessive money supply growth1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
The 2000’s• Cowboy Capitalism• Leverage• Exotic investment products• Lax supervision• Deficit spending• Derivatives• Lowered underwriting standards• O.P.M. (other peoples’ money)• No Fear
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This Decade’s Four Bubbles• Dot.com Stocks• Residential Real Estate• Commercial Real Estate• Blue Chip Stocks
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The New Normal• An L shaped recovery• Multi-year credit contraction• Re-regulation• Low, low growth• Higher taxes• Later on, inflation• China’s driving• A reduced standard of living in America
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Predicting 2010 2009 Holiday Sales4th Quarter GDPDecember Unemployment NumbersOther 4th quarter and 2009 Economic DataReal EstateNational Wealth
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January 4-8th Data
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MondayISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ETConstruction Spending10:00 AM ET4-Week Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET3-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM ET6-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM
TuesdayTuesday
Motor Vehicle Sales ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ETRedbook8:55 AM ETFactory Orders10:00 AM ETPending Home Sales Index10:00 AM ET
WednesdayMBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ETChallenger Job-Cut Report7:30 AM ETADP Employment Report8:15 AM ETISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 AM ETEIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ETFOMC Minutes2:00 PM ET
ThursdayChain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index6:00 AM ETJobless Claims8:30 AM ET30-Yr Bond Announcement9:00 AM ETEIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ETTreasury STRIPS3:00 PM ETFed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ETMoney Supply4:30 PM ET
FridayEmployment Situation8:30 AM ETWholesale Trade10:00 AM ETConsumer Credit3:00 PM ET
January 11-15 Data
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Monday4-Week Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction1:00 PM ET
TuesdayICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ET
International Trade8:30 AM ET
Redbook8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET
WednesdayBank Reserve Settlement
MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET
Beige Book2:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget2:00 PM ET
ThursdayRetail Sales8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices8:30 AM ET
RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
FridayConsumer Price Index8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production9:15 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment9:55 AM ET
January 18-22 Data
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MondayUS Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day
All Markets Closed
TuesdayTreasury International Capital9:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index1:00 PM ET
Wednesday MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ET
Housing Starts8:30 AM ET
Producer Price Index8:30 AM ET
Redbook8:55 AM ET
ThursdayJobless Claims8:30 AM ET
Leading Indicators10:00 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
FridayNo Data Today
January 25-29 Data
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MondayExisting Home Sales10:00 AM ET
TuesdayFOMC Meeting Begins
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ET
Redbook8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI9:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET
Wednesday Bank Reserve Settlement
MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET
New Home Sales10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ET5-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement2:15 PM ET
ThursdayDurable Goods Orders8:30 AM ETJobless Claims8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
FridayGDP8:30 AM ETEmployment Cost Index8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment9:55 AM ET
Farm Prices3:00 PM ET
February 1-5 Data
1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
MondayPersonal Income and Outlays8:30 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending10:00 AM ET
TuesdayMotor Vehicle Sales
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ET
Redbook8:55 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index10:00 AM ET
Wednesday MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report8:15 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement9:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement11:00 AM ET
ThursdayChain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index6:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs8:30 AM ET
RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET
Factory Orders10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ETTreasury STRIPS3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
FridayEmployment Situation8:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit3:00 PM ET
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