ZLATO, Your Golden Investments. 2 Pascal Dubey, 2007 Pascal Dubey, Independent Wealth Manager +...

ZLATO, Your Golden Investments

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Pascal Dubey, 2007

Pascal Dubey, Independent Wealth Manager

+ Certified Expert in Finance and Investments

+ Master in economics HEC University ofLausanne

+ Member of the Swiss Financial AnalystsAssociation

+ Was several years First Vice-President at the executive committee of a bank

+ Speaks French, English and German

+ P. Dubey is allowed to open directly accounts in CZ with 8 major Swiss banks

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Jump into gold !

1. Gold history and market

2. Where do we go ?

3. How to invest ?

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Gold : the most important commodity with oil

• Strategically, gold is one of the two most important commodities (with crude oil) on the planet, but its role as the ultimate store of value and method of payment has been forgotten by many investors.

• In today's world of massive deficit spending, inflating currencies (i.e. excessive growth in the money supply) and financial imbalances, gold's monetary role is reasserting itself.

• Investment demand for gold is increasing and the remonetisation of gold has begun.

• Alan Greenspan, in justifying the US's decision to continue holding gold reserves, said in 1999: "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold. Paper money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."

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Why invest in gold ?

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A new fashion in Prague ?

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Gold versus paper assets

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Supply and demand for gold

Estimated demand in 2010 : 5’000 tonnes.

Estimated mine supply in 2010 : 2’000 tonnes

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Supply and demand for gold

Dem

andS

upply

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2. Where do we go ?

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The commodity bull cycle

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What drives the gold price?

• The value of gold has been subject to intense debate for centuries.

Baron von Rothschild commented:

"I only know of two men who really understand the true value of gold –

an obscure clerk in the basement vault of the Banque de Paris and

one of the directors of the Bank of England. Unfortunately, they

disagree".

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In 2006, gold returned 22.8%

Average price in 2006 versus 2005 : +35%

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Another golden run ?

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China holds 2% of world gold reserves

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The problem of double-counting of gold

• Gold loaned by central banks that has subsequently been sold into the

physical market:

• "In particular, gold may be double-counted with either a gold swap or

gold loan/deposit if the party acquiring the gold were to on-sell it

outright, because both the original owner and the outright purchaser

would report ownership of the gold".

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Gold market fundamentals

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Strong increase of ETFs

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Gold mines : attractive valuations

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Multiple compression

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2006 : brilliant results for the gold mines

• February 22nd, 2007. Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer,

and Newmont Mining said profits surged in the 4Q as the price of

bullion jumped. Barrick’s net income doubled to $418 million or 48

cents a share from $ 175 million or 32 cents a share a year earlier.

• Newmont, the world’s second largest producer, said net income tripled

to $223 million or 49 cents a share from $62 million or 14 cents a

share a year ago.

• Barrick overtook Newmont with its acquisition of Placer Dome in March

2006.

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Corporate activity affecting the portfolios

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Gold versus trade-weighted dollar from 1971

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Correlation with oil ↑, with US$ ↓

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A weaker Dollar in 2007

• As US housing weakens, so too will consumer spending

• Weak consumer spending points to lower profits

• …and hence slower GDP growth…

• …which reduces inflationary effects…

• …and points to interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve…

• …lower bond yields

• and a weaker dollar

• Forecast by David Bloom, Global Head, Foreign Exchange Strategy, HSBC

Global Markets (November 2006)

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Gold contango and its components, 1978 – 2006

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Gold spot price, March 9, 2007

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Threats

• A dollar stronger than expected

• A lowering commodity boom

• Lower energy prices

• An increasing gold contango

• A diminishing inflation

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Many positive factors for gold

• Production of gold peaked in 2001 and is declining since.

• Central Bank sales are capped by the Gold Agreement.

• Some “dollar heavy” Central Banks such as China may add to holdings.

• Demand from jewellery is again increasing.

• Miners have continued to reduce the size of hedge books.

• Gold ETFs are growing – proving demand is persistent.

• The trend in the dollar remains generally weak.

• Investors continue to seek out diversifying asset classes, including gold.

• Inflation concerns are still on.

• Geopolitical tensions remain latent.

• Attractive gold mines valuation.

• M & A activity should keep on growing.

• Technical analysis is bullish.

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Technical analysis

The 50 DMA crosses over and above the 200 DMA = very bullish sign in the medium term

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Raymond James is increasing its price forecast

Raymond James 2007 Estimates : US$ 581 / oz.

Lehman Brothers 2007 Estimates : US$ 575 / oz.

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Bullish !

• The main specialists are bullish :

UBS, Crédit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Black Rock Merrill Lynch,

CA Chevreux, Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch, Citigroup and

Motherearth Report expect a price of gold between

US$ 700 and 900 / oz for 2007.

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3. How to invest ?

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Gold has a negative correlation to the equity markets

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10 ways to invest in gold

Physical

1. Gold coins and bars

2. Allocated or unallocated gold accounts

3. Gold certificates

4. ETFs

Mines and physical

5. Gold oriented funds

6. Equities of gold mines

7. Baskets

8. Futures and options

9. Hedge funds

10.Stuctured products

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Valuation of a company (Goldcorp Inc.)

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Valuation of a company (Goldcorp Inc.)

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Producers versus junior mines

• Investment philosophy includes seeking low valuation, high intrinsic value, and

low market capitalization relative to reserves and resources.

• The fund must place emphasis on management. Exploration success is a people

business.

• Company selection requirements include listing on major exchanges, geographic

location, risk diversification, sound balance sheet, investor relations strength and

superior assets.

• Junior producers and exploration companies are the engines for wealth creation in the minerals industry, with over 75% of all new discoveries coming from juniors.

• Junior mines : in order to evaluate them, the best funds have their own geologists.

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From junior to producer

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The very best investment funds

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A large choice of structured products

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> Innovate with an expert in investments

• Switzerland : security of your bank

• BvB : leading position since 18 years

• Pascal Dubey : your expert in investments

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Sources

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BvB : The unmatched solution in the Czech Republic

Our offices : GENEVA, LAUSANNE, GIBRALTAR

1989 1997 1999

Legal form: Partnership (partners have unlimited joint and several liability for the company’s obligations = full

commitment)

Clients: Private & Institutional

Staff: 25 = 11 asset managers + 3 analysts + 11 assistants

Assets: Equivalent of CZK 40 billion under management

Regulation: Member of the Swiss Association of Asset Managers

P. Dubey: is allowed to open directly accounts in CZ with eight major Swiss banks, like UBS and Crédit Suisse

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Independent wealth management in Switzerland

• The independent wealth managers account today for over 15% of the

total wealth managed in Switzerland. Their market share is growing

much faster than the banks. The principle is simple, discreet and

extremely safe, it is very common in Switzerland and pretty new in the

Czech Republic : the client chooses himself his banks of deposit and

BvB manages his investments through these banks. For instance in

the Czech Republic, Pascal Dubey is allowed to open directly accounts

with eight major Swiss banks, like UBS and Crédit Suisse. He has a

direct IT link with these banks. It is important to note that BvB is fully

independent from the banks in its decisions of investments and buys

only the best products according to the will of each client. This

independence is the key for BvB’ clients. So there is the guarantee of

the bank with the service and performance of an independent. Very

personal indeed !

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Our Banking Partners ↔ Safety & Independence

Depository Banks best suited to your needs:

1. UBS (staff: 70’000)

2. Credit Suisse Group (staff: 65’000)

3. Julius Bär (staff: 3’500)

4. Pictet & Cie (private bankers for 201 years, staff:2’200)

5. Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch (private bankers for 210 years, staff:1’800)

6. Mirabaud & Cie (private bankers for 187 years, staff: 500)

7. Clariden Leu (belongs to Credit Suisse Group, staff: 1’800)

8. Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (State guaranteed for 150 years, staff: 2’000)

Analysis and products from the major Swiss and foreign banks :

+ HSBC, Barclays, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank,

Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, etc. + brokers and funds managers

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Macro-economicanalysis

CurrenciesInterest

ratesAnalysis of

economic cycle

Strategic allocationof portfolio

Bonds, EquitiesStructured products (capital protected)Alternative investments, Real estate

Commodities, Fiduciary depositLombard credit

Risk profile

Objectives :• Private and professional• Medium and long term

• Currency• Fiscal impact

Analysis of economic cycleAnalysis Return / Risk

Tactical allocationof portfolio

Bonds, EquitiesStructured products

Alternative investmentsReal estate

Commodities, Cash

Your portfolio

BvB & CieYour specific needs

Only an independent is able to offer such a large choice• We receive daily all the research and the products from the major

international banks and brokers

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We can discuss various personal proposals

Convertible bonds

Cash

Bonds

Alternative investments

Real estate

Commodities

Equities

Proposal C

Proposal B

Proposal A

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0% 3% 5% 8% 10% 13% 15% 18% 20%

Risk

Exp

ecte

d r

etu

rn

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Investment proposalFor the Strategic allocation, we discuss :

- Your personnel objectives

- Your tax situation to invest accordingly

- Your monetary allocation

- Your part of capital protected

Bonds

Convertible bonds

Equities

Alternativeinvestments

Real estate

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Wine fund

Funds of Hedge funds

Capital partially protected

Capital 100% protected

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Investment funds

Single bonds

0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%

Investment funds

9.4% JPM / YY

9% Barclays/ XXX

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19%

Single shares

Investment funds

0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%

Owner’s properties

direct

Investmentfunds

Cash

0%

Bonds

30%

Convertible bonds

6%

Equities

33%

Real estate

6%

Alternative investments

25%

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Specific products and objectivity of choice

• Search and development of creative and original structured products, taking into consideration :

the market trend your specific need and preferences

Guaranteed capital? Guaranteed return? Currency of reference? Duration? Tax situation?

• Setting in competition of the emitting banks in terms of products and fees

• Diversification of the emitting banks

• Products’ follow-up and active management of the positions

• Constant dialogue and regular review of your objectives

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Supervision ↔ For Your Peace of Mind

SFBC : Swiss Federal Banking Commission.

Administrative authority, independent of the Swiss National bank, in charge for the supervision of the banks and the financial markets in Switzerland

SBA : Swiss Banking Association. Association which gathers the banks and defends their interests. It promotes the conditions frameworks and codes of conduct for the Swiss financial centre in the world

SAAM : Swiss Association of Asset Managers.BvB is voluntarily a member of SAAM which provides our client with the guarantee that we will run our business impeccably

Auditor : Controls the respect by BvB of the code of conduct of the ASG, then defers to the ASG

BANK : The banks, where you choose to deposit your assets, control the risk and the operations executed by BvB on your portfolio. The banks are regulated by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission

SFAA : Swiss Financial Analysts Association.Pascal Dubey is a graduate of SFAA and is held to follow the rules of "best practice" (code of conduct) with ethics as a key element

SBASAAM

BvB

SFBC

BANK

YOU

Auditor

SFAA

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Real independent Private Banking in Cz : you & us You You profit from our client approach, forget about mass market,

I am an independent directly interested in your own goals

Discretion You need a discreet and reliable partner, you decide the way we communicate and how often I report, I am fully committed and I remain with you for the long term

Safety You choose the best banks, you keep full control of your deposit,

Performance You benefit from our full independence in our choices, I have a global view and select the very best banks and products

Tax optimisation We invest according to your tax situation. In accordance with the local laws, we can also create a structure in Switzerland, in Gibraltar or elsewhere

Network You share our privileged contacts, some of the most reputable experts in the field of law, taxation, property, art and companies

Professionalism You will appreciate to get the best of both worlds: the safety of your bank + our independence

Thanks to our leading position, you have a VIP accessto solutions suited to your specific needs with a quick decision making process and an efficient service

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“Our independence is your asset.

Are we your solution ?”

Pascal Dubey, +41 21 345 10 00, pad@bvb-cie.ch

Berger van Berchem & Cie

Geneva – Lausanne – Gibraltar