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The Possible Effect of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping System
and Crop Yield in China
ZHAO Jin, YANG Xiaoguang
China Agricultural University
Background
Scientific Questions
Results
Part I: The possible effects of climatic change on northern
limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China.
Part II: The possible impact of climatic change on the northern
limits of spring maize and its agro-meteorological
disaster in Northeast China.
Conclusions
Outline
Changes in temperature, sea level and Northern Hemisphere snow cover
0.74℃/100year
1.8mm/year
3.1mm/year
IPCC,2007
The trend of annual mean air temperature over the period 1951~2002
China’s national assessment report on climate change, 2007
Background
Projected annual mean surface temperature for 2071~2100 under different scenarios
China’s national assessment report on climate change, 2007
3.5~6.5℃ 2.5~5.5℃
3.5~6.5℃ 2.5~5.0℃
Background
Climatic changeMultiple Cropping System
Crop growth and yields
• The possible effects of climatic warming on northern limits of cropping systems?
• How the change of cropping systems affects crop yields in China ?
• The vulnerability of agro-meteorological disasters after the north limits of cropping system changed?
Scientific Questions
The possible effects of climatic change on
northern limits of cropping systems and crop
yields in China
Part I:
– 1950s to 2007.
– 666 stations for better data recorded quality.
Weather data
Indices for the countrywide cropping systems
Cropping system ≥0℃ accumulated temperature(℃·d)
extreme minimum temperature(℃) date of 20℃termination
One-cropping system <4000~4200 <-20 Early August~Early September
Two-cropping system >4000~4200 >-20 Early September~Beginning in late September
Three-cropping system >5900~6100 >-20 Beginning in late September~Early November
Liu X H and Han X L, 1985
The northern limits of winter wheat
mean minimum temperature of December: -15℃extreme minimum temperature: -22~-24℃
(Cui D C,1991)
The northern limits of double rice≥10℃ accumulated temperature: 5300℃·d
(National Agricultural Zoning Commission , 1991)
Indices
Liu X H and Han X L, 1985
The cropping systems in China (1950S-1980)
One-cropping system
Two-cropping system
Three-cropping system
Previous work
One-cropping system
Two-cropping system
Three-cropping system
The change of northern limits of cropping systems
(YANG Xiaoguang et al,2010)
One-cropping system
Two-cropping system
Compared with 1951 to 1980, the northern limits of thetwo-cropping system during 1981 to 2007 occurredsignificant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi,Hebei, Beijing and Liaoning provinces.
the boundary moved northwards about 26 km in Shanxi,Shaanxi and Hebei province
in Liaoning province, the area of two-cropping system changedfrom almost zero to the region of SuiZhong, Anshan, Yingkou, Dalian.
The possible change of northern limits of two-cropping system
Spring maize → winter wheat — summer maizeShaanxi: 82% 、Shanxi: 64% 、Hebei: 106% 、
Beijing:99%、Liaoning: 54%
54% ~ 106%
The effects of northward of Two-cropping limits on the crop yields
Two-cropping system
Three-cropping system
Largest spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang province.
Moved northwards about 103 km in Zhejiang provinceMoved northwards about 127 km in eastern and 29 km in western of Anhui province Moved northwards 30 km in Hubei province
The possible change of northern limits of three-cropping system
winter wheat —middle rice → winter wheat—early rice—late riceHunan: 52% 、Hubei: 27% 、Anhui: 58% 、Zhejiang: 45%
27% ~ 58%
The effects of northward of Three-cropping limits on the crop yields
(YANG Xiaoguang et al,2010)
( ZHAO Jin et al,2010)
The possible change of northern limits of grade 1 area of cropping system
South China
Ⅵ:Area of two-crops in irrigated land and two/one-crop in dry land in Huanghuaihai area;Ⅶ:Area of two-crops in paddy fieldand two/one-crop in dry land in Southwest plateau or mountain; Ⅷ:Area of wheat-rice in Jianghuai plain or hilly;Ⅸ:Area of two/three-crops in paddy/dry land in Sichuan basin; Ⅹ:Area of two/three-crops in paddy field in middle-lower Yangtze plain or hilly; Ⅺ:Area of later two/three-crops and thermal.
Province
Ⅵ-Ⅷ Ⅷ-Ⅹ Ⅶ-Ⅹ
Wheat/maize-wheat/rice
Wheat/rice-wheat/rice/rice
Wheat/maize-wheat/rice/rice
Wheat/rice-wheat/rice/rice
Wheat/maize-wheat/rice/rice
Hunan 53% 105%
Hubei 26% 86%
Anhui 22% 36% 67%
Jiangsu 29% 35% 74%
Zhejiang 44% 100%
Shanghai 58% 76%
Ⅵ-Ⅷ : the region by area Ⅵ into area in Ⅷ corresponding provinces;Wheat/maize: the cropping pattern of winter wheat-summer maize; Wheat/rice : the cropping pattern of winter wheat- middle season riceWheat/rice/rice : the cropping pattern of winter wheat-early season rice-late riceWheat/maize-Wheat/rice: the cropping pattern of winter wheat-summer maize change into winter wheat- middle season rice
The effects of change of grade 1 area on the crop yields
( ZHAO Jin et al,2010)
( LI Kenan et al,2010)
The change of northern limits of grade 1 area of cropping system
North China
Ⅱ Area of one-crop for cool-warm plants in semi-arid medium plateau in northernⅢ Area of one-crop for warm-cool plants in semi-arid low plateau in northeast and northwestⅣ Area of one-crop for warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly in northeastⅤ Area of one-crop for irrigating warm-cool plants in day land in northwestⅥ Area of two-crops in irrigated land and two/one-crop in dry landin Huanghuaihai areaⅧ Area of wheat-rice in Jianghuai plain or hilly
Changes of the first division
Station Period
Potential yield ( kg·hm-2)
Spring wheat Spring maizeWinter wheat + summer maize
Winter wheat
The sensitive region of cropping system betweenⅣ and Ⅵ
Dalian in Liaoning
1951-1980 — 12834 — —
1981—2007 — — 6375+9278 —
increase* 2820
Suizhong in Liaoning
1951—1980 — 13073 — —
1981—2007 — — 5542+9228 —
increase 1697
The sensitive region of cropping system between Ⅲ and Ⅵ
Yangquan in Shanxi
1951—1980 — — — 3716
1981—2007 — — 4289+8430 —
Increase 9002
Zunhua in Hebei
1951—1980 6482 — — —
1981—2007 — — 4502+8064 —
Increase 6821
The sensitive region of cropping system between Ⅲ and Ⅳ
Sunwu in Heilongjiang
1951—1980 5743 — — —
1981—2007 — 7189 — —
Increase 1446
Keshan in Heilongjiang
1951—1980 5550 — — —
1981—2007 — 9512 — —
increase 3962
The effects of change of grade 1 area on the crop potential yield
The change of northern limits of winter wheat in China
Moved northwardsThe east of Liaoning: 120km,
The west of it : 80kmHebei: 50kmShanxi: 40kmThe west of Shaanxi: 47kmInner Mongolia、Ningxia: 200km
Moved westwardsGansu: 20kmQinghai: 120km
The change of northern limits of winter wheat
the yield of winter wheat and spring wheat in Hebei province
Data sources:《China Statistical Yearbook》
Northern limits of winter wheat moved north,leading to about 25%grain yield increase in the changing area if the cropping system changed from spring wheat to winter wheat.
The change of wheat yield due to the cropping system changed
The north limits moved northwards
Zhejiang: 47km
Anhui: 34km
Hubei、Hunan: 60km
Yield increasing rate (wheat-middle rice→green manure-early rice-late rice)
Zhejiang: 13.8%、Anhui: 12.2%
Hubei: 1.8%、Hunan: 29.9%
The change of northern limits of double rice
The possible impact of climatic change on the
northern limits of spring maize and its agro-
meteorological disaster in Northeast China.
Part II
Study region
The effect of climatic change on maize in Northeast China
Heat requirements for different maturity-style maize
maturity-style maize Early-maturity Middle-maturity late-maturity
≥10℃ degree day (℃·d) 2100-2300 2300-2700 >2700
The cumulative average
temperature from May to
September(℃)
80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0
△T5-9 -1.7 -2.4 -3.1 -3.7 -4.1 -4.4
Indices of delayed chilling injury for spring maize
(China Meteorological Administration, 2009)
Indices
1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990
1991-2000 2001-2007
Unsuitable areaEarly-maturityMiddle-maturityLate-maturity
( LIU Zhijuan et al,2010)
The change of planting structure of different maturity-type maize
1961-1970 1981-1990
1991-2000 2001-2007 The slope of water deficient ratio
1971-1980
Maturity-type Fuyu Qiqihaer Anda Haerbin Kaiyuan Dandong
1960 S Middle-maturity 21% 24% 31% 8% -8% -59%
2000 S Late-maturity 28% 35% 25% 18% -8% -53%
The change of water deficient ratio of maize
1960s 1970s 1980s
1990s the early of 21 century 1961-2007 average
(Zhao Junfang,et al. 2009)
The change of Severe chilling injury of maize
Maturity-type 1 9 6 0 s In the early of 21 century
Late-maturity 12% 21%
Middle-maturity 18% 27%
CAUChina Agricultural University
The change of the maximum frequency severe chilling injury of maize
in the cropping system change area
(Zhao Junfang,et al. 2009)
The change of Severe chilling injury of maize
• The climate changes caused the northwards movement of north limits of cropping system, winter wheat and double rice.
• The changes will increase the unit grain yield in the changing area.
• The ago-meteorological disaster should be considered on the changes in cropping systems.
Conclusions
Ministry of Science and Technology of China(‘973’ project)
Ministry of Agriculture of China
Prof. Chen FuProf. Liu XunhaoProf. Han Xiangling
Students:Liu Zhijuan, Li Kenan, Cheng Difang, Wang Wenfeng, Li Yong, Xu Huajun, Ye Qing.
Acknowledgements
Thank you for your attention!
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