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ZENARIOS – SETTING CONTEXT TO THE ZNE SOLUTION SPACE
ACEEE 2018
Aug 14, 2018
Smita Gupta
Jeremy Smith
2©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
OVERVIEW
3©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
» Develop an analysis of the most critical RDD&D gaps that need to be addressed to achieve
California’s goals of zero net energy buildings for all new construction of residential buildings by
2020 and for commercial buildings by 2030.
» Results of the analysis will be used by Energy Commission staff to develop a research roadmap
that strategically targets future EPIC investments in a manner that provides optimal benefits to
Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) electric ratepayers, and maximizes the use of public research and
development investments.
PROJECT BACKGROUNDBased on CEC EPIC funded project for Technology Research Gap Analysis for ZNE
4©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
PROJECT TEAM
5©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
OVERALL METHODOLOGY
• Technology List
• Prioritization metrics
• Cost, Performance and
Barriers
TECHNICAL
ASSESSMENT
LITERATURE
REVIEW
STAKEHOLDER
SURVEYS
GAPS
ANALYSIS
PRIORITIZATION
FRAMEWORK
• Highest priority
technologies for different
scenarios
• Define RDD&D gaps
GAP
ARTICULATION
SME
INTERVIEWSHIGH PRIORITY
TECH
RESEARCH
PRIORITY
• Research gaps,
barriers, cost and
performance
targets
6©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
zTAP TOOLZNE Technology Assessment and Prioritization Tool
Technology prioritization based a multidimensional framework of factors matched
to a context as a ZNE scenario
7©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
zTAP TOOLKey Principles
The assessment is an objective prioritization and minimizes
potential for bias or skewTRANSPARENCY
SCALABILITY
FLEXIBILITY
Include more technologies in the future as the framework can allow
for addition of new and emerging technologies to the mix.
Adapting the framework to allow alignment with evolving polices
and not be stranded in time to get shelved and obsolete easily
8©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
zTAP TOOLKey Factors
LOAD SHAPING
GHG REDUCTION
TECHNOLOGY READINESS
COMMUNITY-SCALE SITE-LEVEL
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS
MIXED-FUELALL-ELECTRIC
ENERGY IMPACT
CONTEXT SCENARIOS
OTHER CRITERIA
X-FACTOR
9©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
ENERGY IMPACT
ENERGY USE
EUI per market
sector/climate
APPLICABILITY
Market sector
Climate Zone
BUILDING GROWTH
Ft2 per market
sector/climate
RELATIVE SAVINGS
Savings per end use
category%
0 1 2 3
X X X
Overall energy benefit based upon reduction in energy use intensity (EUI) within
the respective end use category, scaled by projected growth for applicable
building types and climate zones.
10©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
LOAD SHAPING POTENTIAL
Ability of technology/strategy to actively shape load profiles, such as flattening
a profile (eliminating duck curve), creating a predictable profile, or other load
shifting.
No ability to
shape load
(commissioning
app)
0 1
Low ability to shape
load (e.g., building
envelope, static
building fenestration)
2
Medium ability to
shape load (e.g.,
thermal mass,
dynamic fenestration)
3
High ability to shape
load (energy storage,
thermostats, predictive
controls)
11©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
GHG REDUCTION POTENTIAL
The ability of the technology/strategy to reduce GHG emissions. These could
range from technologies that provide load shifting, or directly use a fuel that lead
to reduced GHG.
No GHG
reduction
(building design
tools)
0 1
Low GHG reduction
(vacuum insulated
panels, fiber-optic
daylighting)
2
Medium GHG
reduction (grid-
integrated HPWH, DC
microgrid)
3
High GHG reduction
(CO2 heat pumps,
thermoelastic /
elastocaloric cooling)
12©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
TECHNOLOGY READINESS
Potential for the technology to reach maturity by 2025 for full market adoption
by 2030 based on current stage and expected stage in 5-7 years by stakeholders.
No potential for
market maturity
(very nascent or
theoretical)
0 1
Low tech readiness
(proof of concept)
2
Medium tech
readiness
(demonstration)
3
High tech readiness
(early market
adoption)
13©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
CONTEXT SCENARIOMatched with technology solution space
EN
ER
GY
BE
NE
FIT
LO
AD
SH
AP
ING
GH
G R
ED
UC
TIO
N
SITE LEVEL
MIXED FUEL
SITE LEVEL
ALL ELECTRIC
COMMUNITY
SCALE
ALL ELECTRIC
COMMUNITY
SCALE
MIXED FUEL
COMMUNITY-SCALE
SITE-LEVEL
MIXED-FUEL ALL-ELECTRIC
14©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
CONTEXT SCENARIOMatched with technology solution space
EN
ER
GY
BE
NE
FIT
LO
AD
SH
AP
ING
GH
G R
ED
UC
TIO
N
SITE LEVEL
MIXED FUEL
SITE LEVEL
ALL ELECTRIC
COMMUNITY
SCALE
ALL ELECTRIC
COMMUNITY
SCALE
MIXED FUEL
COMMUNITY-SCALE
SITE-LEVEL
MIXED-FUEL ALL-ELECTRIC
• District heating and
cooling systems
• Advanced lighting
control systems
(ALCS)
• Electrochromic
fenestration
• Air sealing
• Micro / Nanogrids
• DER Controls
• PV + Storage
• Heat pump water
heaters
15©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
CONTEXT SCENARIO
No relevance
0 1
Low relevance
2
Medium relevance
3
High relevance
COMMUNITY-SCALE SITE-LEVEL MIXED-FUELALL-ELECTRIC
16©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
X-FACTOR
Negative score
-3 0
No score
3
Positive score
This is a wild card or extraneous factor which can be used to
determine priority in alignment with evolving policy and priorities.
• Code addressability
• Scaling of benefits
• Research already well-funded by other entity (DOE, ETP,
NYSERDA, etc.) or already near maturity
• Support resilient communities
-2 -1 1 2
17©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
RESEARCH PRIORITY INDEX
Where:
EI = Energy Impact
LS = Load Shaping
GHG = GHG Reduction
TR = Tech Readiness
𝒂 𝑬𝑰 + 𝒃 𝑳𝑺 + 𝒄 𝑮𝑯𝑮 + 𝒅 𝑻𝑹 + 𝒆 𝑪𝑺 + 𝒇 𝑺𝑳 + 𝒈 𝑨𝑬 + 𝒉 𝑴𝑭 + 𝒊 𝑿𝑭
a-i = Coefficients are the weights that total 100 to imply a % allocation to each factor
CS = Community-Scale
SL = Site-Level
AE = All-Electric
MF = Mixed-Fuel
XF = X factor
18©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
DemonstrationZTAP TOOL
ENERGY IMPACT CALCULATORDemonstration
20©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
ENERGY IMPACT
ENERGY USE
EUI per market
sector/climate
APPLICABILITY
Market sector
Climate Zone
BUILDING GROWTH
Ft2 per market
sector/climate
RELATIVE SAVINGS
Savings per end use
category%
0 1 2 3
X X X
21©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
ENERGY IMPACTData Sources
Technology Variables Description Source
Energy Benefit
Energy benefit % of end or whole buildingTeam expertise
Lit review
End use/s or whole building the tech
addresses
All the end uses that the technology is
able to address or whole building
Team expertise
Lit review
EUI associated with end use or
whole building
The per sq ft energy use associated with
the end use for a building type in a climate
zone
CEUS for Commercial
RASS for Residential
Applicability
Building type SF/MF/All CommSurvey 2
Team expertise
Market sector New construction/retrofitSurvey 2
Team expertise
Climate Type All applicable climate zonesSurvey 2
Team expertise
Projected Growth Projected building growth Growth in sq. ft. for the building type in CA
by 2030Energy Commission
DISCUSSION
23©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
DISCUSSION
» Do the 9 factors adequately describe Zenarios?
• Are we missing any critical factor?
» What other ways could we be defining NZ or ZE or ZNE and all variations?
» How do electric vehicles fit into this picture?
» How to better quantify the GHG impact metric?
» Other potential sources for energy impact data?
24©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
DISCUSSION CONTD.
» What are the potential use cases?
• Research priority for funding support
• Defining ZNE policy in terms of the weights placed on the 9 factors that define the space.
• Shortlist of tech to consider during design phase
» Who would have use for such a definition and priority list of tech?
• Campus?
• City?
• Utilities MUNIS and IOUs?
• State agencies?
• Community?
• Jurisdiction?
THANK YOU
www.itron.com
Smita.Gupta@itron.com
Jeremy.Smith@itron.com
http://zneroadmap.researchenergy.net/
26©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY
PROJECT WEBSITE
http://zneroadmap.researchenergy.net/
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