Yves Desaubies, On behalf of the Mersea Consortium

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

The MERSEA Project:towards Marine Core Services

from Global to regional ocean monitoring and forecasting

Yves Desaubies,On behalf of the Mersea Consortium

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

• « Development of a European system for monitoring and forecasting … »;Environmental information for policy makers; Reference information and data in support of marine

applications High quality data for

ocean scienceTowards Marine

Core Services

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

MERSEA Integrated Project

R&D project funded by the European Commission (FP6)

Thematic priority : SPACE - GMES

Ocean and Marine Applications for GMES (Global

Monitoring for Environment and Security)

4-year project (2004 –2008)

38 contractors, 16 countries (or Int. Org.) Coordination : IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour

l’Exploitation de la Mer),

Participants : meteorological agencies, marine institutes,

research labs, small companies, …

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

GMES Marine Core Services

Combining in-situ and satellite data, with models to provide ocean monitoring and forecasting

Analysis, forecast and hindcast

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

MERSEA :data assimilation into ocean models

• Data assimilation (remote sensed, in situ) Altimetry, SST, ice, ocean colour

In situ profiles and surface : ARGO, XBT, CTD, SOOP

Forcing fields : ECMWF, or regional NWF

• Ocean physics, biogeochemistry and ecosystems A global system

Regional and shelf sea systems

Connection to coastal systems

• Marine Core Services for GMES (2008):

Contribution to Global Earth Observing Syst of Syst (GEOSS)

Nowcasts, forecasts, hindcasts

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

MERSEA :

A vision

A Project developing

A system

….. (pre-) opeational in 2008 !

… a work in progress

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

A schematic of the composite ocean observing systems, including the current status against the goals of the 2000 - 2010 implementation plan. (Johnson, JCOMM, OPA, NOAA/OCO)

The observing system for climate

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Remote sensing : from to R & D to production

• Merged altimetry (=> dynamic height) SSALTO / DUACS (Toulouse

• High resolution SST Medspiration, with GHRSST-PP (GODAE High Resolution SST)

• Ocean colour => chlorophyl, primary production JRC : Joint Research Centre

• Sea ice Concentration @ Eumetsat OSI- SAF; drift @ IFREMER

• Wind and fluxes ECMWF Merged products (scaterrometre + ECMWF) : CERSAT IFREMER

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Altimetry: merged products

Mean absolute dynamic topography

Mean sea level anomaly

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Wind fields: merged fields

Combine winds from Numerical Weather Prediction (ECMWF) with high resolution sattelite fields (scaterrometre)

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Sea surface temperature, (with GODAE High Resolution SST – PP)

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

SeaWifs-

MODIS

Chlorophyll a : 9 yrs analysis (EC Joint Research Center)

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Sea Ice Concentration and drift

R. Ezraty, 2005

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Research and development

• Modelling, assimilation, bio-geochemistry, ..Process representation, algorithms, parmeterisations,

numerics, codesTransfer to operational suites

• Downscaling, model nesting, zooms, boundary conditions,

• Data products, merged fields (multi-sensors), quality control, forcing fields

• Ecosystems in regional seas• Seasonal forecasting

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Resolution Equator 45°N 60°N

1/4° 27 km 19 km 13 .5 km

These models are resolving:•Eddies and fronts•Boundary currents•Coastal upwelling•sea-ice cover, thickness

Global ¼° NEMO-LIM simulation 1958-2000

The French DRAKKAR Group

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

The Drakkar Group, Barnier et al (CNRS)

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

The MERSEA System

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Production, information Management

8 Production centres (or networks), operated by Agencies Integration, consistency, quality of services

Common formats, standards, best practices Catalogues, inventories of products Data access and distribution ; archival Adapt product and delivery to user needs, user desk

Search and discovery;

Viewing

Download

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Area I : Global OceanArea II : North East AtlanticArea III : ArcticArea IV : Baltic SeaArea V : Mediterranean Sea

1

2

3

4

5

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Monitoring and Forecasting Centres

• Global : Mercator – Océan• North East Atlantic and NW shelves : Met Office

and the NCOF• Arctic : NERSC and met.no• Baltic : DMI• Mediterranean : INGV and the MOON network

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Mercator Océan

•French Centre for ocean monitoring and forecastingSupported by CNES, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, SHOM and Météo-France

Vigourous R & D programme

Full suite of models with different resolution, relocatable high resolution

Development of a global 1/12°, with assimilation

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Global ¼° ocean model assimilating

satellite altimetry

a 1/15° Zoom on North Atlantic & Mediterranean assimilating satellite altimetry, Reynolds SST and in situ data

A precursor of the Global 1/12°

Global 2° assimilating

satellite altimetry

The Global Ocean Production system

Global Observation-based product (T&S, currents)

1 2

3

4

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

What does it deliver?

Real-Time production on a weekly basis, 3D fields of the ocean state Real-time analysis, 2 weeks of daily forecasts, maps & numerical fields,

Reference simulations

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF)

(www.ncof.gov.uk) – a strategic partnership between:

(1) Ocean Forecasting R&D, Met Office

a) Operational global and regional wave analyses and 5 day forecasts.

b) Operational open ocean and shelf seas hydrodynamic (and ecosystem) analyses, hindcasts and 5 day forecasts.

c) Operational satellite products.

d) Links to internal observational and climate groups.

(2) Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory

a) ~40 year regional (and global) and process shelf seas models.

b) Wave hindcast and process models.

c) Links to internal process and observational capability.

Selected products only – see web site for details

(3) National Oceanographic Centre

a) ~40 year Open Ocean hindcast runs

b) Remote sensing facility.

c) Links to observational and process expertise and groups.

(4) Plymouth Marine Laboratories

a) Remote sensing operational and R&D capability.

b) Ecosystem modelling and process expertise.

(5) Environmental System Science Centre

a) ~40 year open ocean analyses.

b) Expertise in data management and services.

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007Observations

Model

viewing … North East Atlantic (different fields, model & observations)

FOAM model

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

From Global to regional to coastal seas :Analysis and forecasts

Exemples form the TOPAZ – NERSC system : North Sea and Gulf of Guinea

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Final users

• Offshore industry support, ship routing Products : currents, temperature, waves, sea- ice High resolution, nowcasts, forecasts, re-analysis for statistics,

extreme events Local to global

• Emergency : oil spill response, search and rescue Currents, temperature, surface, very high resolution, coastal Readiness, real-time, analysis and short term forecasts

• Coastal systems Coastal management, ecosystems, water quality, sea level

Observations are necessary,

Very high resolution, nesting into larger scale systems

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Prestige : oil spilled on the track

In green, areas with positive impact of Mercator currentsIn red, areas where MOTHY alone is better

MOTHY operational MOTHY + Mercator 103m

MOTHY and operational oceanography systemsMOTHY and operational oceanography systems

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Offshore industry support in Gulf of Mexico

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Gulf of Mexico Dynamics

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

SST Image of Loop Current and Eddies

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Service in support of the offshore oil and gas industry

http://www.oceannumerics.com

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

‘Edge’ - an improved nowcasting tool

• Further development of software tool for delineating fronts

• Permits use of all available satellite and in-situ data for delineation of best frontal boundary

• Utilises only latest images

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

QUALITY (Analysis, Short-term Forecast)

Offshore « Mars » Oil platform (SHELL) location

(Central North GOM)

Best Estimate Surface velocity for Day 05/09 around MARS location

ADCP velocities at 50 m vs PSY2V2 surface velocities

magnitude (upper panel) + direction (lower panel)

• Black line : ADCP records• Red line/Green Line /Blue line : alternate colors representingthe succession of 14 days of model forecasts issued weekly(warning : High frequencies are not filtered)

2005 Wintertime period (Feb-May)

ADCP Data*

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Forecast verification tables for decision-aid support

Numbers of MARS Model (ANA/F7/F14)

occurences platform outside inside

EOfronts

outside 7/7/7Correct

rejection

1/1/1False Alarm

inside 2/2/3Miss

7/7/6Hit

Table 2: Contingency table for the event « frontal

occurrence at the MARS location » over 17 weeks :

an indicator of model forecast performance

Binary event : “frontal occurrence at the MARS Offshore site”

Forecast range Overall mean shortest distance to front difference (in km)

(mean over 11 sites and 17 weeks)

shortest distance to front difference (in km) @ MARS

Platform : Mean/std deviation

Best estimate (Analysis)

16 14.7/13

1-week forecast 21 19/16.8

2-week forecast 22 23.4/23.5

Table 3: Distance-to-front errors as a function of the forecast length

User-specific metric = Similar methodology as in PROFS Deepstar Shootout Evaluation Study [Oey et al.,2005] & similar/improved statistics expected

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Comments

• Need to utilise multiple information streamsData coverage is essential, condition sine qua non

• Significant dependence upon forecaster’s interpretation and expertise

• The model won’t always get it right, but has definite, albeit limited skill

• Users expect very high accuracy• Ways to improve :

Local high resolution models and dataLocal data assimilation

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Real time current profiles in GoM

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

What is next : Marine Core Services

Part of the GMES architectureCall for proposals FP7, to cover transition 2008 =>

To provide basic service, to intermediate usersMonitoring and basic mapping;

Collect organise data collection, availability

Operational forecasting; Global and main regional areas

Intermediate users :Agencies (marine, meteorology), scienceReporting agencies (EEA, ICES, OSPAR)Value adding companies

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

Summary, conclusions

• The systems are runningState of the art, continuous improvementProvide generic information and services (MCS)Nesting capabilitySeveral data streams, product lines (analysis,

forecasts, re-analysis), large catalogueObservations, observations, observations !!

• Specific applications require further expertise• Data policy must be clarified• Other issues

Sustainability, governance,

SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

GODAE project office