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World Cotton Market In the Next Season
Önümüzdeki SezondaDünya Pamuk Pazarı
Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated
World Cotton PricesDünya Pamuk Fiyatları
cents/lb
Sources: Cotlook, Reuters
cents/lb
Sources: Cotlook, Reuters
World Cotton PricesDünya Pamuk Fiyatları
• Lower Acreage
Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS
million acres
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreagemillion acres
Cotton/Corn
new crop futures: cotton/corn ratio
Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS, Reuters (crop price ratios are Jan-Apr averages of new crop futures (Dec 2013 for cotton & corn, Nov 2013 for soybeans)
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports
thousand tons of U.S. cotton shipped, rolling 4-week average
Source: USDA
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports
Source: USDA
USDA export forecasts in million tons
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports , lower stocks for exporters
Source: USDA
USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports, more stocks in China
Source: USDA
USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports• Chinese policy
Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler
Price OutlookFiyatlara Bakış
Record stocks, but stocks withheld from market
- Demand-related questions
- 2013/14 acreage & Production- Chinese cotton policy
Source: USDA
Production Surplus Expected in 2013/142013/14’te Üretim Fazlalığı Bekleniyor
Early USDA estimates
Source: USDA
million tons
Source: USDA
million tons
Stocks Forecast to Reach another RecordStokların Yeni bir Rekor Kırması Bekleniyor
15.3
19.319.0
Source: USDA
Stocks Forecast to Further Concentrate in ChinaStokların Çin’de Daha da Yoğunlaşması Bekleniyor
Source: USDASource: USDA
15.3
19.319.0
million tons
Buy and withhold from the market
How to supply mills?Releases from reserves?
Imports?
million tons
6.5
Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri
Chinese Reserves
Chinese GrowersÇinli Yetiştiriciler
13%VAT
20,400 RMB/ton150 cents/lb
17,750 RMB/ton128 cents/lb
Chinese Spinning Mills
19,000 RMB/ton (137 cents/lb)
−Slow delivery
−Lower grades offered when higher grades wanted
−Higher volumes and higher grades promised for release
Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri
Chinese Mill-UseÇin İşletme Kullanımı
Source: USDA
million tons
Chinese Yarn ImportsÇin İplik İthalatları
thousand tonsRecord volumes
in recent months
40% from Pakistan
20% from India
Source: Cotlook
Chinese Spinning Mills19,000 RMB/ton
(137 cents/lb)
Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) allowed as part of WTO agreement894,000 tons (4.1 million bales) with 1% duty
Sliding-Scale Quota, duty varies with price (5-40%)Discretionary volume, 3:1 ratio
Outside of quota, 40% dutyUntried until this year
13%VAT
Imports
Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri
cents/lb
Source: Cotlook
Outside quota option becomes viable around 85 cents/lb
Higher prices could be expected to trigger releases
Chinese & World Cotton PricesÇin vey Dünya Pamuk Fiyatları
World Consumption less ChinaÇin Hariç Dünya Tüketimi
Source: USDA
million tons
70.772.5
www.cottonusa.orgwww.cottoninc.com
www.cottonusaturkey.comwww.cottonuniversity.org
Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated
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