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Document of
The World Bank
Report No: ICR00004034
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
(IDA-47940IDA-56370)
ON A
CREDIT AND ADDITIONAL FINANCING
IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR8.3 MILLION
(US$ 12 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
FOR A
DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT
March 20, 2017
Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Country Unit
Europe and Central Asia Region
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective: January 24, 2017)
Currency Unit = Leu
Leu 20.08 = US$ 1
US$ 1.00 = Euro 0.93
FISCAL YEAR 2017
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ACSA
AWS
BETF
CPESS
CPF
CPS
DCRMP
DES
DRM
ECC
ECMWF
EIB
EMP
EUMETNET
EUMETSAT
ERR
GDP
GFDRR
ICR
IDA
IIASA
ITC
JIT
MAFI
MoE
MoF
MoIA
MoldATSA
NPV
NWP
PAD
National Rural Development Agency
Automatic Weather Stations
Bank-Executed Trust Fund
Civil Protection and Emergency Situation Service
Country Partnership Framework
Country Partnership Strategy
Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project
Department of Exceptional Situations
Disaster Risk Management
Emergency Command Center
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
European Investment Bank
Environmental Management Plan
Network of European Meteorological Services
European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological
Satellites
Economic Rate of Return
Gross Domestic Product
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
Implementation Completion Report
International Development Association
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Information Technology and Communication
Just-in-Time
Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry
Ministry of Environment
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Internal Affairs
Moldavian Air Traffic Services Authority
Net Present Value
Numerical Weather Prediction
Project Appraisal Document
PDO
PMT
PPF
SEEDRMAP
SEE-
MHEWS-A
SSP
SHS
UNDP
UNECE
UNISDR
WMO
Project Development Objective
Project Management Team
Project Preparation Facility
South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaption
Program
South East Europe Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory
System
Shared Socio-Economic Pathway
State Hydrometeorological Service
United Nations Development Program
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
World Meteorological Organization
Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Practice Manager: David Sislen
Project Team Leader: Anatol Gobjila
ICR Team Leader: Daniel Kull
MOLDOVA
DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT
CONTENTS
Data Sheet
A. Basic Information
B. Key Dates
C. Ratings Summary
D. Sector and Theme Codes
E. Bank Staff
F. Results Framework Analysis
G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs
H. Restructuring
I. Disbursement Graph
1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design ............................................... 1
2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes .............................................. 9
3. Assessment of Outcomes .......................................................................................... 17
4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome ......................................................... 23
5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ..................................................... 24
6. Lessons Learned ....................................................................................................... 26
7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners .......... 28
Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing .......................................................................... 30
Annex 2. Outputs by Component ................................................................................. 31
Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ................................................................. 36
Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes ............ 38
Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ........................................................................... 39
Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ................................................... 40
Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ..................... 41
Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ....................... 42
Annex 9. Comparison of Indicators in PAD Section A and the Supplemental Letter………..44
Annex 10. List of Supporting Documents .................................................................... 45
i
A. Basic Information
Country: Moldova Project Name:
Disaster and Climate
Risk Management
Project
Project ID: P115634 L/C/TF Number(s): IDA-47940,IDA-56370
ICR Date: 03/20/2017 ICR Type: Core ICR
Lending Instrument: SIL Borrower: MOLDOVA
Original Total
Commitment: XDR 6.80M Disbursed Amount: XDR 8.29M
Revised Amount: XDR 8.29M
Environmental Category: B
Implementing Agencies:
Ministry of Environment, State Hydrometeorological Service, Department of Exceptional
Situations, Ministry of Agriculture
Cofinanciers and Other External Partners:
B. Key Dates
Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual
Date(s)
Concept Review: 11/25/2009 Effectiveness: 11/10/2010 11/10/2010
Appraisal: 06/01/2010 Restructuring(s):
Approval: 08/05/2010 Mid-term Review: 12/19/2012 02/15/2013
Closing: 09/30/2014 09/30/2016
C. Ratings Summary
C.1 Performance Rating by ICR
Outcomes: Moderately Satisfactory
Risk to Development Outcome: Substantial
Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory
Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory
C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR)
Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings
Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory
Quality of Supervision: Satisfactory Implementing
Agency/Agencies: Moderately Satisfactory
Overall Bank
Performance: Moderately Satisfactory
Overall Borrower
Performance: Moderately Satisfactory
ii
C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators
Implementation
Performance Indicators
QAG Assessments
(if any) Rating
Potential Problem
Project at any time
(Yes/No):
No Quality at Entry
(QEA): None
Problem Project at any
time (Yes/No): No
Quality of
Supervision (QSA): None
DO rating before
Closing/Inactive status:
Moderately
Satisfactory
D. Sector and Theme Codes
Original Actual
Major Sector/Sector
Public Administration
Public administration - Water, sanitation and flood
protection 100 100
Major Theme/Theme/Sub Theme
Environment and Natural Resource Management
Climate change 100 100
Adaptation 100 100
Finance
Finance for Development 25 25
Disaster Risk Finance 25 25
Urban and Rural Development
Disaster Risk Management 25 25
Disaster Preparedness 25 25
Disaster Response and Recovery 25 25
Disaster Risk Reduction 25 25
E. Bank Staff
Positions At ICR At Approval
Vice President: Cyril E Muller Philippe H. Le Houerou
Country Director: Satu Kristiina J. Kahkonen Martin Raiser
Practice Manager: David N. Sislen Wael Zakout
Project Team Leader: Anatol Gobjila
ICR Team Leader: Daniel Werner Kull
ICR Primary Author: Alexei Ionascu
iii
F. Results Framework Analysis
Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project development objective (PDO) is to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological
Service's ability to forecast severe weather and improve Moldova's capacity to prepare for
and respond to natural disasters. The PDO will be achieved through strengthened capacities
to: (i) monitor weather and issue early warnings of weather-related hazards by providing
timely and accurate hydrometeorological forecasts and services; (ii) manage and
coordinate responses to natural and man-made disasters; and (iii) help individuals,
particularly farmers, be aware of, and adapt to natural hazards and climate variability.
Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority)
In 2015, the project received additional financing of USD 2 million to finance cost overruns
and a resulting financing gap in the parent project. However, neither the PDO, nor the
original PDO indicators were revised. There were minor editorial and
numerical adjustments in the numerical values of selected indicators. See the table below.
(a) PDO Indicator(s)
Indicator Baseline Value
Original Target
Values (from
approval
documents)
Formally
Revised
Target
Values
Actual Value
Achieved at
Completion or
Target Years
Indicator 1 : More specific forecasting of weather conditions
Value
quantitative or
Qualitative)
Scale of weather
forecasts at 5000 sq.
km.
Scale of weather
Forecasts
reduced to 300
sq km
Completed
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 09/15/2016
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Indicator 2 :
Expanded lead-time of weather warnings to users, particularly Department
of Exceptional Situations (DES)
Value
quantitative or
Qualitative)
Lead time for severe
weather warnings only
10 minutes to 1 hour
Lead time for
severe weather
warnings
expanded to 12
hours
Lead time for
severe
weather
warnings
expanded to
3-6 hours
Completed
iv
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2013 06/30/2016 09/15/2016
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Indicator 3 : Strengthened capacity to coordinate response to emergencies
Value
quantitative or
Qualitative)
No Emergency
Command Center to
coordinate response
among relevant
agencies.
Emergency
response drill
shows capacity
improvements as
compared to the
baseline and the
recent test of
Emergency
response drill
shows
capacity
improvement
s as
compared to
the baseline
Completed
Date achieved 05/08/2010 09/30/2014 06/30/2016 12/01/2015
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
(b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s)
Indicator Baseline Value
Original Target
Values (from
approval
documents)
Formally
Revised
Target Values
Actual Value
Achieved at
Completion or
Target Years
Indicator 1 :
Installation of Doppler radar which improves weather monitoring and
forecasting
Value
(quantitative
or Qualitative)
No effective radar is
currently installed
As the radar is
installed,
improved
forecasts are
produced with
warnings when
appropriate
Completed
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/04/2014
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Indicator 2 : Now-casting tools, data collection and dissemination improved
Value
(quantitative
or Qualitative)
The process of
automated data
collection or
Operational now-
casting is
realized;
Operational
now-casting
is realized:
Completed
v
dissemination is not
available for an early
warning system
automated data
are collected,
disseminated and
integrated
with radar and
flash flood
system resulting
in timely
warnings for
users
automated
data are
collected,
disseminated
and
integrated
with the
radar system
and properly
visualized,
resulting in
timely
warnings for
users
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2013 06/30/2016 06/15/2016
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Indicator 3 : The ECC is established, tested and operational
Value
(quantitative
or Qualitative)
An additional floor is
built to accommodate
the ECC
ECC has been
tested and is
operational
Completed
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/04/2014
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Indicator 4 : ECC users are trained to operate the emergency management system
Value
(quantitative
or Qualitative)
No staff currently
trained in the
emergency
management
information system
Relevant
personnel (at
least 80) trained
in the emergency
management
system
established in
ECC
Relevant
personnel (at
least 90)
trained in the
emergency
management
system
established in
ECC
Completed
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/30/2016 06/04/2016
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
vi
Indicator 5 :
At least 50 investment grants provided and put on the demonstration plots
(farmers receive information about practical techniques for adaptation to
climate risks on pilot basis)
Value
(quantitative
or Qualitative)
No activities exist to
disseminate practical
experience on
adaptation to climate
risks other than drought
50 demonstration
plots are
established; 60
demonstration
and
dissemination
events are
organized
Completed. 53
investment grants
provided. 92
demonstration
and dissemination
events were
organized
Date achieved 08/05/2010 09/30/2014 06/04/2014
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Indicator 6 :
Project supported organization(s) publish reports on the effect of
collaboration with stakeholders
Value
(quantitative
or Qualitative)
No
Yes
Yes. Completed.
The project
carried out a
country-wide
dissemination
campaign related
to
the dissemination
of climate-
resilient
agricultural
techniques tested
on the
demonstration
plots
Date achieved 04/01/2015 06/30/2016 09/15/2016
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
vii
G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs
No. Date ISR
Archived DO IP
Actual
Disbursements
(USD millions)
1 12/25/2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00
2 05/19/2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.10
3 01/03/2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.71
4 07/31/2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1.30
5 12/26/2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 3.03
6 04/26/2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.65
7 12/07/2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 6.48
8 06/21/2014 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 7.71
9 12/18/2014 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 9.15
10 06/16/2015 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.20
11 12/13/2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.37
12 06/07/2016 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 11.46
13 09/19/2016 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 11.62
H. Restructuring (if any)
Not Applicable
I. Disbursement Profile
1
1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design
1.1 Context at Appraisal
Moldova is a landlocked country located between Romania and Ukraine with a surface
area of 33,840 km2 and a population of about 3.5 million. Moldova’s economic
comparative advantage has been its fertile soil and mild temperate continental climate that
has the potential to transform the country into an important agricultural producer in the
region.
However, the country’s comparative advantage in agriculture has been increasingly
affected by global climate trends. Moldova has been experiencing more frequent and
intense extreme climatic events, such as early frosts, flash floods, hailstorms, droughts and
other extreme weather.
These extreme events result in significant economic losses and undermine the potential for
growth and poverty reduction. The 2000 drought crippled Moldovan agriculture in the
spring and summer and affected about 2.6 million people. According to the UNDP
estimates, the proportion of overall agricultural losses in affected areas was between 70
and 90 percent. The 2007 drought caused estimated losses of about US$1.0 billion; the
2008 floods cost the country about US$120 million. But even earlier, during the 1984-
2006 period, Moldova’s average annual economic losses due to natural disasters were
about US$61 million, or 2.13 percent of national GDP (EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA
International Disaster Database).
Natural disasters have a disproportionate impact on the poor and roll back development
gains in Moldova. With 57 percent of the population living and 84 percent of the poor
concentrated in rural areas, the poorest are hardest hit by weather-related hazards. Hence,
the ability to anticipate and manage climate impacts, particularly extreme
hydrometeorological events, are of critical importance for sustained poverty reduction in
Moldova.
Rationale for Bank involvement
The World Bank has been a reliable development partner for Moldova since 1993, having
provided significant budget support and investment funding for the adjustment of
Moldova’s institutions and economy to the needs of a market economy.
The Country Partnership Strategy for the relevant period, FY 09-12, stressed the need for
improved disaster risk management capabilities in the context of economic vulnerability,
particularly the impact of extreme weather events on agriculture. The subsequent CPS for
FY 12-17 highlighted the promotion of green, clean and resilient Moldova to mitigate the
debilitating effects of climatic events on agriculture and improved natural resource
management to ensure sustainable development.
2
At the time, the World Bank already had substantial institutional expertise in disaster risk
management operations. During 1984-2006, the World Bank financed 528 projects, an
estimated US$26 billion in lending, to respond to natural disasters.1 Historically, the Bank
has provided post-disaster reconstruction assistance, but the focus had already started to
shift to support disaster preparedness and mitigation, and catastrophe risk financing. In
addition, the Bank, in partnership with other organizations, had developed critical policy
tools and knowledge products, including instruments to assess post-disaster damage,
disaster area needs, hazards and vulnerability, and risk-transfer instruments.
Countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region are increasingly interested in
putting in place proactive measures that will communities and decision-makers better
prepare for and better manage disaster risks over time, including the impacts of climate
change. The Bank had supported projects in disaster risk management in Turkey, Romania,
Poland, and Albania, among others. In 2009, a major World Bank report, “Adapting to
Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia,” presents links between climate
change and disaster management, as well as a useful framework to develop climate change
adaptation action plans.2 These are examples of many similar World Bank activities to
develop a body of knowledge and practice that is useful to natural-hazard vulnerable
countries such as Moldova.
The Government of Moldova had been receiving technical assistance for disaster risk
management and climate change adaptation from other development partners, and was
willing to complement this technical assistance with the combined knowledge and
financing that the Bank is uniquely placed to offer, to reduce vulnerability to natural
hazards and introduce climate risk management policies, practices and measures.
Given the above, the World Bank was uniquely positioned to provide both technical
assistance and significant investments for building institutional capacity, adopting modern
approaches and procuring the relevant hydrometeorological and emergency response
equipment to an extent that no other multilateral or bilateral donor could match at the time
of the operation.
1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved)
The project development objective was to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological
Service’s ability to forecast severe weather and improve Moldova’s capacity to prepare for
and respond to natural disasters. The PDO was to be achieved through strengthened
capacities to: (i) monitor weather and issue early warnings of weather-related hazards by
providing timely and accurate hydro meteorological forecasts and services; (ii) manage and
coordinate responses to natural and man-made disasters; and (iii) help individuals,
particularly farmers, be aware of, and adapt to natural hazards and climate variability.
1 Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development – An IEG Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural
Disasters; Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), World Bank, 2006 2 World Bank, 2009
3
To monitor progress towards the achievement of the PDO, the project used three project
outcome indicators:
(i) More accurate and specific forecasting of weather conditions
(ii) Expanded lead-time of weather warnings to users, particularly the Department of
Exceptional Situations (DES)
(iii) Strengthened capacity to coordinate response to emergencies
In addition, the project used five intermediate outcome indicators to monitor progress in
individual components:
1. Installation of Doppler radar which improves precision of forecasting severe
weather.
2. Now-casting tools 3, data collection and dissemination is improved
3. The Emergency Command Center (ECC) is established, tested and operational.
4. The users of ECC are trained to operate the emergency management system
5. At least 50 investments grants are provided and introduced at demonstration plots
(farmers receive information about practical techniques for adaptation to climate
risks on pilot basis.
1.3 Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators, and
reasons/justification
In 2015, the project received additional financing of USD 2 million to finance cost overruns
and a resulting financing gap in the parent project. However, neither the PDO, nor the
original PDO indicators were revised.
The PAD for the additional financing highlighted that minor adjustments to the results
framework aimed at correcting the intrinsic scientific weaknesses in the definition of the
indicators were made, and that changes in the Results Framework didn’t significantly affect
the correct measurement of the achievement of the original PDO. The numerical changes
in the targets mostly affected the second PDO indicator where the lead time for severe
weather warnings was changed from 12 to 3-6 hours. There was also an increase in the
number of ECC staff trained from 80 to 90. Finally, given the mid-term decision to drop
the purchase of the flash flood system the target for ‘Now-casting tools, data collection and
dissemination improved’ was revised to edit out ‘and flash flood system’. The other
revisions are more editorial than substantive in nature.
3 The forecasting of the weather within the next six hours is often referred to as “now-casting” (Source:
Glossary of Meteorology).
4
Box 1: Summary of the Results Framework Revisions
Original PDO
Indicator
Revised PDO
Indicator
Original Target Revised Target
More accurate and
specific forecasting
of weather
conditions
More specific
forecasting of
weather conditions
Scale of weather
forecasts reduced
to 300 sq. km
No change
Expanded lead-time
of weather warnings
to users, particularly
DES
No change Lead time for
severe weather
warnings expanded
to 12 hours
Lead time for
severe weather
warnings
expanded to 3-6
hours
Strengthened
capacity to
coordinate response
to emergencies
No change Emergency
response drill
shows capacity
improvements as
compared to the
baseline and the
recent test of the
system
Emergency
response drill
shows capacity
improvements as
compared to the
baseline
Original
Intermediate
Results Indicator
Revised
Intermediate
Outcome Indicator
Original Target Revised Target
Installation of
Doppler radar which
improves precision
of forecasting severe
weather
Installation of
Doppler radar which
improves weather
monitoring and
forecasting
As the radar is
installed, improved
forecasts are
produced with
warnings when
appropriate
No change
Now-casting tools,
data collection and
dissemination
improved
No change Operational now-
casting is realized;
automated data are
collected,
disseminated and
integrated with
radar and flash
flood system
resulting in timely
warnings for users
Operational now-
casting is realized:
automated data
are collected,
disseminated and
integrated with the
radar system and
properly
visualized,
resulting in timely
warnings for users
ECC users are
trained to operate the
emergency
management system
No change Relevant personnel
(at least 80) trained
in the emergency
management
Relevant
personnel (at least
90) trained in the
emergency
5
system established
in ECC
management
system established
in ECC
New Indicator Project supported
organization(s)
publish reports on
the effect of
collaboration with
stakeholders
Yes (reports
published)
Not applicable
The revisions in the Results Framework, including the introduction of the additional
indicator were properly reflected in the Supplemental Letter #2 to the Additional
Financing Agreement.
1.4 Main Beneficiaries
The primary beneficiaries of the project were:
(i) The Government of Moldova: through strengthened capacity to forecast and respond to
severe weather. The primary beneficiary institutions were the State Hydrometeorological
Service, the Ministry of Environment, the State Department for Exceptional Situations and
the Ministry of Agriculture.
(ii) Local: the 52 farmers who were the beneficiary of the investment grants for setting
demonstration plots to pilot and test activities aimed at increasing awareness about coping
and adaptation techniques necessary to make agriculture more resilient to adverse weather.
Other beneficiaries include the farmers who participated in the trainings on climate-
resilient agricultural techniques conducted on the demonstration plots as well as the
farmers who subscribed to the just-in-time communication platform. Ultimately the general
public is benefitting from improved forecasting, early warning and disaster response
services.
1.5 Original Components (as approved)
A. Project components
The Moldova DCRMP proposes four components: (A) strengthen severe weather
forecasting; (B) improve disaster preparedness and emergency response; (C) initiate
activities for adaptation to climate risks in agriculture; and (D) support project management.
A summary of project-supported components is provided below while more detailed
description of project design is included in Annex 4.
6
Component A: Strengthen Severe Weather Forecasting
This Component aimed to strengthen the State Hydro Meteorological Service’s ability to
forecast severe weather and provide decision makers and other users with more effective,
diverse, and timely forecasts and warnings.
Sub-Component A.1 – Develop Early Warning/Now-casting Capabilities. Economic
losses from severe weather, flash floods and floods can be significantly reduced by
establishing a “now casting” system. This sub-component will strengthen data,
communications, and modeling technology to provide timely, accurate, and geographically
precise weather hazard warnings. The sub-component will support automation of the
hydrometeorological observation network to accelerate accurate data delivery to users for
more effective decision-making. This sub-component will upgrade meteorological
instruments and hydrologic gauges to automated sensing systems to provide users with data
and will also increase computer quantity and software quality to create more useful data
and effective forecast products for users. Strengthening Moldova’s hydro meteorological
data has potential for benefiting neighboring countries. Sharing of hydro meteorological
data and information with countries in the region has potential for improving forecasting
capabilities for Moldova’s SHS as well as its partners.
Sub-Component A.2 – Dual Polarization Doppler Radar Technology for Localized
Forecasts. A Dual polarization Doppler radar is now the most effective meteorological
tool to predict floods, high winds, hail, and other severe weather, and issue warnings. This
sub-component will improve meteorological modeling systems by providing a mesoscale
model and Integrated Meteorological Workstation, and eventually a hydrologic modeling
system for predicting flash–floods. These will provide best practices in delivering effective
warnings to the Department of Exceptional Situations (DES), Ministry of Agriculture and
Food Industry (MAFI) and other users of SHS services.
Sub-Component A.3 – Development of Plans for Seasonal/Climate Forecasts. Building
a real-time hydro meteorological data system is a first step to improving medium- to long-
term forecasting. Improving and automating agro-meteorological data collection and
distribution will improve drought forecasting. The next phase in strengthening hydro
meteorological forecasting for drought involves expanding forecasting capability to
monthly and seasonal scales. SHS is developing a monthly climate forecasting program,
and starting to build a national drought forecasting center, which is part of the World
Meteorological Organization Eastern Europe Regional drought forecasting program.
Building the data system leads to more effective input to Global and Regional Decadal
climate forecasting models to improve accuracy of model simulations to use for adaptation.
This sub-component will support the SHS to develop plans for such a data system and, if
resources permit, to provide investments for equipment.
Capacity Building. To ensure that the proposed Project investments are implemented
effectively and that the SHS upgrades its technical capacity, the Global Facility for Disaster
Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) has agreed to provide a US$100,000 technical
assistance grant in support of the proposed Project. This grant is expected to finance
additional staff training in using new equipment and provide opportunities for SHS staff to
7
benefit from international experience in weather and climate service delivery. Some
portion of the grant may be used to strengthen DES capacity to coordinate disaster response.
Component B: Improve Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Response
This Component aimed to strengthen Government capacity to manage emergencies and
coordinate disaster response among levels of government agencies by establishing and
operating an Emergency Command Center (ECC), and associated capacity-building
activities.
The ECC would facilitate joint disaster response with agency representatives and could
assemble decision makers. It would operate continuously, equipped with a decision-
support system to enhance the flow of crucial DES data, such as hydro meteorological
forecasts and SHS alerts; this would allow DES to issue timely warnings, and undertake
prevention and response measures, including evacuating affected populations.
Sub-Component B.1 - Feasibility Study and Design. The Project will support feasibility
and design studies as a basis to establish the ECC. The two studies will include: (a) ECC
architectural design within the DES headquarters that ensures seismic resilience of
structural and non-structural features, and efficient space planning; and (b) information
management system design to link DES headquarters with DES local offices and sectoral
institutions such as SHS, Ministries of Environment and Agriculture, Institute of Geology
and Geophysics, and others. The design would include voice and data transfer capacity and
two-way information processing, support daily DES operations, and integrate existing
legacy systems. This design will be informed by existing coordination mechanisms in the
country as well as by seeking input from other agencies that participate in disaster
preparedness and response.
Sub-Component B.2 - Establish Emergency Command Center. When feasibility and
design studies are complete, the Project will support establishment of the ECC by financing
the following: (i) facility renovation and refurbishment works; (ii) ECC furniture and
equipment; (iii) information technology (IT) hardware; (iv) emergency information
management software; and (v) communication equipment.
Sub-Component B.3 – Capacity Building and Evaluation. DES employees will staff the
ECC on an as-needed basis, along with staff from other agencies, particularly during
emergencies. The Project will support capacity building for DES and other agencies by
providing training in emergency management information system, particularly operating
the IT decision-support system, for an estimated 100 staff from 15 agencies and all regional
and local DES units. To ensure sustainability and facilitate knowledge transfer, capacity
building will be designed as “train the trainers” so participants can transfer knowledge to
their colleagues.
Component C: Initiate Activities for Adaptation to Climate Risks in Agriculture
The objective of the component was to enhance the practical application of agro-
meteorological information in the agriculture sector in order to increase its resilience
towards adverse weather effects. This objective will be achieved through support to the
following activities.
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Sub-Component C.1 – Development of a Just-in-Time (JIT) Communication Platform.
This sub-component will support the development of the technical architecture (software
and hardware) of a mobile JIT communication platform that could serve as a tool to rapidly
disseminate critical, localized weather information to a large number of farmers and rural
communities. Sub-component C.1 would support the design and testing of the
communication platform, including free dissemination of the service to a farmer focus
group. The design will focus on the information flows of severe weather alerts originating
from the SHS to farmers via a content provider associated with the Ministry of Agriculture
and Food Industry (MAFI), and in collaboration with mobile communication companies.
Following the design and testing phases the platform could be fully rolled-out by MAFI in
collaboration with the SHS and mobile phone companies. Furthermore, the platform could
be expanded to evolve into an early warning system that would combine current and
forecasted agro-meteorological data to simulate scenarios for crop development, and
provide farmers with advice on necessary mitigation/enhancement agronomical measures.
Last but not least, the platform can be modulated to include dissemination of other critical
information to farmers, such as market and extension information. In this context, synergies
with the e-Governance project currently under preparation will also be explored. This sub-
component is linked to SHS improvements under Component A.
Sub-Component C.2 – Adverse Weather Adaptation Advisory Services. Sub-component
C.2 would provide technical advisory services, including grant investment support to
farmers, farmer groups and rural communities for piloting and testing activities aimed at
increasing awareness about coping and adaptation techniques necessary to make
agriculture more resilient to adverse weather. It will build on the country’s existing
experience in implementing demonstration plots for adaptation to drought through
extension services and aim to expand the existing knowledge base and awareness in the
farming community about adaptation techniques to a wider spectrum of risks, such as: (i)
frost; (ii) excess snow and water cover of winter crops; (iii) hail storms; (iv) drought; (v)
inundation of crops from torrential downpours and rising river waters. Investments
supported will include on-farm irrigation, water harvesting basins, anti-hail net systems,
protective forest belts, conservation land cultivation, as well as other activities with
adaptation potential. Selection of beneficiaries for sub-component C.2 would be done
through a competitive scheme with clear technical, social and financial eligibility criteria.
Component D: Project Management
This component will provide fiduciary support for the implementation of the three
components. In essence, fiduciary services will be centralized for the proposed Project.
The POPs Project Management Team (PMT) housed in the Ministry of Environment will
be the Project’s fiduciary entity. In particular, the support will enhance the financial
management and procurement functions as well as, if necessary, the technical aspects of
project implementation, including monitoring and evaluation.
1.6 Revised Components
There were no substantial revisions of the project components. The scope of the project
after the mid-term review, as well as with the processing of the additional funding to the
parent project, essentially remained the same. However, there is one important caveat
9
regarding the scaling down of support for hydrological services, namely the decision not
to acquire flash flood forecasting models/capabilities, in favor of a stronger focus on
enhancing severe weather forecasting capacity. Originally, the intermediate outcome
indicator related to ‘now-casting tools, data collection and dissemination improved’
included the dissemination from three sources of weather information: automated weather
stations, the radar and a flash flood forecasting system. However, this could not materialize
given the unsuitability of available modeling solutions to the Moldovan context and the
lack of project funds and time to develop a customized system. In addition, the European
Investment Bank (EIB) committed to fund the Moldova Flood Protection project, which
was to develop the SHS’ capacity to forecast floods, as well as develop a master plan and
investment program for the sub-sector.
1.7 Other significant changes
The closing date of the original parent project was extended by one year from September
30, 2014 to September 30, 2015.
The parent project received additional financing of US$ 2 million on May 19, 2015 to cover
the cost overruns and ensuing financing gap resulting from increased construction costs
and the need to develop customized software for the Emergency Command Center under
Component B. The project’s closing date was thus again extended to September 30, 2016,
to allow for the development of the customized software for and associated staff training
of the SHS, as well as to complete some of the Component A procurements which had been
delayed.
2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes
2.1 Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry
Soundness of the background analysis – the background analysis for the project
was generally sound. The project design was informed by the recommendations
developed under the South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaption
Program (SEEDRMAP), a joint WB/GFDRR and UNISDR initiative that identified
hazard monitoring, early earning, disaster management and climate change
adaptation as issues requiring special attention in the region. The project design was
informed by other WB supported projects in the region, e.g. Croatia, Poland,
Turkey and Russia. The main lesson that emerged from those projects was that
ensuring system integration was key to improved forecasting and service delivery.,
The multiple systems needed for hydrometeorological services delivery including
observation, data management, meteorology, hydrology, climatology, visualization,
forecasting and dissemination must communicate effortlessly with each other.
Therefore, the project activities related to weather forecasting had the inter-
operability of the acquired systems as a driving theme. While early in the project
there were some misunderstandings of the utility of certain equipment by the
project team, for example the weather radar, the project was eventually able to
10
integrate the procurements into a modern forecast production approach. The project
also benefited from analytical work provided by other donors, such as UNDP and
the local think tank community. The rationale for Bank’s intervention was sound
as the WB possessed the unique combination, among other donors, of both
technical knowledge and experience and the ability to provide the required
investment to strengthen Moldova’s ability to forecast and respond to natural
disasters.
Assessment of the project design – the objective of the project was clear and derived
from the need to address existing country capacity constraints to monitor severe
weather events and increase the ability of various stakeholders to respond to them
to minimize economic and human losses. While the project involved three
Moldovan institutions (the State Hydrometeorological Service, the State
Department of Exceptional Situations and the Ministry of Agriculture), the project
design cannot be qualified as overly complex. Its components targeted limited and
specific priority improvements in those institutions/sectors that were expected to
contribute to the improved country capacity to identify and respond to climate risks.
As an example, Component B did not purport to bring about a comprehensive
institutional overhaul of the DES. Instead, it focused on the specific ability of that
institution to respond quickly to emerging natural and man-made disasters by
building a modern command center capable of accepting and processing incoming
information with the subsequent ability to respond speedily to emergencies. The
individual components’ activities were not on a critical path to each other. Hence,
the number of beneficiary institutions did not hamper implementation progress, as
they could be performed in parallel and independently of each other. At the same
time there were outcome interdependences, for example timely DES action and the
ability of the just-in-time platform to inform farmers with useful lead-time about
weather hazards is dependent on the timeliness and quality of SHS forecasts and
early warnings. To keep project management coherent, the task team made use of
a project management unit that was experienced with WB fiduciary procedures.
The project design probably overestimated the institutional capacity of the SHS, as
well as underestimated the potential for fluidity of management and staff, to
implement a project of this nature. More upfront dialogue with the Government of
Moldova on the role and status of the institution, investment in capacity training,
and the development of an organizational strategic plan could have served as
enabling reference points for an institution that went through five changes of top
management throughout implementation. Additionally, while the decision to bring
the PMT on board was a sound one, their earlier involvement in the project
preparation could have been beneficial in establishing a better relationship between
the implementing entities, particularly with the SHS which seems to have struggled
in understanding the PMT’s fiduciary role.
Adequacy of government commitment - the commitment of the Government of
Moldova at entry was high. The country was dealing with the consequences of the
2010 floods in the north and the importance of enhanced ability to receive early
warnings and manage natural hazards was on top of the government agenda at that
11
time. There was a high degree of commitment and active involvement from the
participating institutions at the project design phase. However, that commitment
varied across implementation timeframe and the implementing institutions. The
SHS and its supervising Ministry of Environment were particularly affected by the
frequent changes in management which hampered progress in component A (see
below the sections on implementation and Government Performance)
Relevance of Risks Identified and Mitigation Measures – the project team identified
risks that were relevant to project success: (i) incremental costs associated with the
operation and maintenance of the procured equipment; (ii) the relatively low level
of implementation capacity; and (iii) the political risks associated with the
willingness to share improved hydrometeorological data with other agencies,
neighboring countries and international organizations. The team discussed those
risks with the Government of Moldova at project design and received assurances
that those incremental Operations and Maintenance (O&M) costs will be covered
by the budget. With the benefit of hindsight, the project underestimated the
institutional strengthening required to successfully operate and utilize the acquired
equipment in the case of SHS. While equipment-related O&M aspects were
considered, the human side of the operation was underestimated. Due to low pay,
as well as other institutional weaknesses, the ability of the SHS to retain trained
forecasters and ITC (Information Technology and Communication) staff remained
limited. The project team, however, took that into account at the mid-term review
when it commissioned a review of the status of the SHS, which produced, among
other things, recommendations to increase SHS’s visibility, status, and budget, and
hence improve its ability to retain qualified staff.
2.2 Implementation
There were two major factors that affected project implementation: i) implementation
delays related primarily to the Component A of the project; ii) costs overruns in component
A and B that led to the provision of additional financing to cover those overruns. Here is a
description of implementation by project component.
Implementation under Component A was the most challenging, with preparation of
technical specifications and terms of reference, as well as ensuing procurements
chronically behind schedule. Despite trainings for staff, including participation in
the Turin-based procurement courses, and continuous PMT support, the SHS’s
technical specifications were frequently not vendor-neutral, inconsistent, and
technically questionable, which delayed the acquisition process. This is not
uncommon; technical specifications for hydrometeorological equipment are
notoriously difficult to develop properly, even for high income countries. Due to
political instability in the country, the project was confronted with frequent changes
in management. There were five changes at the top of SHS during project
preparation and implementation and four changes of Environment Ministers meant
that the institution was often without the required management leadership, direction
and supervision. There was a natural learning curve for the incoming directors
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which also led to delays and sometimes changing priorities, e.g. one of the directors
questioned the need for building houses for meteorological observation stations,
and consequently plans for the construction of one such house was abandoned. The
implementation suffered a particularly bad period when the SHS was without a
General Director or a project focal point for about 8 months in 2013, resulting in
near full lack of disbursements. That resulted in an accumulated backlog of
uncommitted funds of close to USD 2 million. All this had the unfortunate domino
effect of delaying and reducing the capacity building phase required for bringing
this equipment to full operational use. For example, the automated weather stations,
a critical component for the now-casting capacity of the SHS, was delivered very
close to the revised project completion end date, leaving little time within the
project time-frame for integrating these tools and the Doppler radar into a local
visualization and forecasting platform to deliver weather-related services as
originally intended by the project.
Implementation under Component B was relatively even throughout the project
cycle. Although the procurement and preparation of the feasibility studies and the
construction design of the Emergency Command Center took longer than originally
planned, once completed, the remaining activities were generally on target for the
remainder of the project with small and manageable time variances. The
Emergency Command Center was commissioned in August, 2013, well within the
closing date of the parent project. However, due to the additional time needed to
develop a customized software program as opposed to the purchase of an off-the-
shelf package, as suggested by the feasibility studies, and the required subsequent
staff training, the component required a time-extension. This component also
produced the largest cost overrun, its total cost increasing from $2.6 million to $4.4
million, funded originally by the unused funds from the behind-the-schedule
Component A and later by the additional financing agreed by IDA. While the
project estimated construction needs at US$ 379,000 at appraisal, the actual costs
were twice the estimate at US$ 793,052. This is accounted for by the fact that the
actual costs were determined by the two project-financed feasibility studies which
recommended a more complex construction solution than envisaged at appraisal
and price inflation for construction works. However, the more significant overrun
was caused by the determination that the originally recommended off-the-shelf
software could not be adjusted to the needs of the ECC concept proposed by the
feasibility studies and an original system had to be developed from scratch. Original
equipment costs were also underestimated.
Implementation under Component C was the least problematic of all components
both in terms of implementation timing and cost overruns. The development of the
just-in-time communication platform was contracted to the National Rural
Development Agency (ACSA) which is the national rural extension service. The
platform was designed on time and became fully operational in October 2012. The
additional benefit of contracting the development of the system to ACSA was in
the synergies achieved through integration with a different system developed earlier
– the Agriculture Marketing Information System. The idea showed a lot of promise
13
in the beginning, however as things evolved, the relevance of the just-in-time
system to the farmers showed its limitations due to the continued limited capacity
of the State Hydrometeorological Service to provide localized weather forecasts.
Additionally, the ability of the platform to send mobile notifications en-masse to
farmers in case of adverse weather is constrained by the technical capacity of the
mobile operators present on the Moldovan market, a fact that was not considered
fully at project design. That resulted in relative modest take-up of the service. The
number of subscribers reached 1109 and has remained essentially stagnant after
activity completion.
ACSA was also contracted to implement the Adverse Weather Adaptation
Advisory Services. By all accounts, the activity was a great success, and this
approach is now scaled up through the upcoming Moldova Climate Adaptation
Project. The interaction between the focal point at the Ministry of Food Agriculture,
ACSA and the project management unit was effective and it resulted in fifty-three
grants implemented to showcase various approaches to improved resilience to
climate change to around 3000 farmers. More importantly, two hundred and twenty
farmers replicated the practices on their own farms in the post-training and
demonstration phase.
Bank’s Response to Implementation Challenges - The Bank team’s reaction to
emerging problems was adequate and timely. The team had intensive discussions
with both the Steering Committee and the Ministry of Environment highlighting
the risks of further delays to the development outcome. At one point, the team
considered the cancellation of Component A in case of continued inaction. To
improve project progress and chances of achieving the development outcomes,
after the mid-term review, the project offered more support for the SHS institutional
strengthening by funding the development of a strategic institutional development
plan with TF resources. It also funded the technical assistance to develop the legal
package to change the SHS status within the Moldovan public sector to allow
improved remuneration and income-generating activities to retain qualified staff.
Finally, to prevent further delays, the Bank team was wise in tactically reallocating
the uncommitted funds from Component A to Component B to fund the emerging
funding gap while processing the additional financing in parallel.
2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization
The key performance indicators in the PAD Section A were the same as in the
Supplemental Letter for the Parent Project (please refer to Section 1.2). When the
additional financing was approved, there were several minor changes in the results
framework (discussed in detail in Section 1.3). Similarly, the performance indicators in the
PAD for Additional Financing coincide with those in the supplemental letter.
Design -The results framework is compact and generally struck a sound balance
between the number of indicators and the ability to capture anticipated performance
improvements in the key institutions involved in the early warning of and response
14
to severe weather events, without resorting to an overwhelming number of
indicators. The result framework is logical with an easy-to-understand flow from
intermediate outcomes to project outcomes. In fact, the WB operations department
highlighted this particular framework as an exemplary results framework and the
staff associated with the project made several presentations at WB-organized
operational workshops. However, one area of potential future improvement is to
monitor not only weather forecast resolution, but also quality (in terms of accuracy
and skill verification).
That said, the intermediate indicators related to the establishment of the Emergency
Command Center could have been slightly more specific in capturing
improvements. While the baseline was zero (or in some cases nonspecific), the
project could have attempted to measure a set of more specific, global standard
target values for emergency institutions, such as response time, and have them
monitored and reported during the drill exercises.
The results framework could have benefited from the addition of an intermediate
outcome indicator related to the development of the just-in-time communication
platform which was supposed to be the tool through which the farmers would
receive localized weather information from SHS. This represents a critical link in
the project logic which was expected to build the capability to warn farmers about
adverse weather.
Finally, there is no clarity whether the additional indicator related to dissemination
of the project results referred to the entire project or only to Component C, the
piloting of climate-resilient techniques. The PAD is vague and the PMT suggested
that this indicator related only to the dissemination of results achieved under
Component C related to climate-resilient techniques.
In terms of baseline values and numerical values for measuring progress, the first
two PDO indicators had both baseline values and end target numerical values. The
value for the third outcome indicator was zero as capacity was considered non-
existent at project initiation. Similarly, the baseline value for the intermediate
indicators was zero as the project built capability that was non-existent or very
poorly monitored in the country prior to the intervention. The results framework
did provide a timeframe for the achievement of each indicator that followed
logically from the implementation of project outputs. However, given important
implementation delays, some of the actions shifted naturally beyond the life of the
project. For example, the SHS visualization and forecasting platform was supplied
extremely close to the end date of the project, such that no package of services
could be developed within the project time-frame as the beneficiary, SHS in this
particular case, is still in the process of learning and adopting these tools. Hence, it
will be able to develop useful, relevant localized weather products/information to
potential users only after the completion of the project, also with continued Bank
support under a recently approved BETF (Bank Executed Trust Fund).
15
Implementation - There was no dedicated M&E staff to collect and track progress
in terms of indicators, which was not necessary given the relative parsimony of the
project log-frame. The PMT was responsible for collecting information from
implementing institutions and updating the results framework bi-annually for
reporting purposes to the Steering Committee and Bank supervision teams.
Utilization - The Steering Committee and the Bank teams used the updated results
framework more as a bird’s view snapshot of bi-annual status and progress towards
the development outcome rather than a day-by-day progress monitoring tool. The
tool was useful as it allowed decision-makers to focus on the critical issues and try
to induce corrective actions. The results framework was developed solely for the
implementation of this project and was not intended to live on beyond the project
completion date. The outcome indicators remain useful, in principle, for SHS in
tracking its operations as a reminder of the original purpose of the equipment and
tools acquired under the project.
2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance
Financial Management – The project benefited from the experience of a project
management unit which implemented other World Bank-funded project prior to the
Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project. The World Bank reviews rated the
financial management system as moderately satisfactory throughout the project cycle. All
the annual audits of the project resulted in unqualified opinions. There were two issues
flagged and addressed: (i) in FY 2012, the auditors brought the issue of manual
transposition of accounting records from the Statement of Expenditures into the financial
reports due to lack of specialized accounting software. The PMT contracted a private IT
specialist who helped them upgrade the accounting software to address the issue to the
satisfaction of the IDA financial management specialist, and (ii) The second issue related
to the annual inventory of the assets procured under the project. While the PMT performed
annual inventory of its assets on regular basis, the assets procured for the project
beneficiaries were not monitored after their transfer into beneficiaries’ custody.
Consequently, the PMT was advised to ensure monitoring of these assets either through
including them in the annual inventory performed by PMT, or asking the beneficiaries to
provide the copy of their inventory lists on annual basis. The PMT decided to carry out the
inventory of those assets by themselves and this was done in summer of 2015.
Procurement - the PMT procurement expert supported all three components, providing
day-to-day guidance to the relevant implementation agency personnel on acquisitions and
the consequent contract management. All the staff from the three Moldovan implementing
institutions (SHS, DES and MAFI) involved in the procurement process attended
procurement training courses in Turin. The project organized study visits for SHS staff to
familiarize them with various suppliers in cases where expensive and sophisticated
equipment had to be purchased. The Bank team helped the SHS by providing sample
specifications for more complex procurements, such as the Doppler radar. The three post-
review exercises carried out by the WB procurement team raised no procurement or fraud
16
and corruption concerns. Compliance and performance risks have been consistently rated
as low.
Disbursement - The Project disbursed behind the schedule throughout its life due to
implementation challenges in Component A. However, in its last implementation year, it
essentially converged with and surpassed the original disbursement schedule. The balance
of undisbursed funds at completion of the grace period for payments was less than 0.1%
(US$10,000).
Environmental Assessment - The Project was rated “category B” as it supported several
construction activities: the installation of the tower for the weather radar, the construction
of four weather and hydrological monitoring stations and finally the renovation of the
building for the Emergency Command Center. There were also environmental concerns
under Component C related to the construction works on some of the demonstration plots,
e.g. construction of water-collection ponds. The project developed Environmental
Management plans for all construction sites that covered environmental, labor safety and
proper equipment for use on sites. The visiting teams regularly verified the compliance
with the Environmental Plans as well as proper supervision and monitoring of the plan by
the PMT. The Aide Memoires confirm that the Environmental Management Plan (EMP)
recommendations have all been essentially met although the Bank team had to draw
continuous attention to the need to ensure proper safety gear on construction sites.
Social safeguards - No social safeguards were triggered. The construction sites were all on
government-owned land which was not in use either legally or illegally. Public
consultations were organized on all sites, with local communities being informed about the
scope, impact and expected benefits of the project. The Bank teams’ reported compliance
with the social safeguards during their regular supervision visits.
2.5 Post-completion Operation/Next Phase
Given the delays in the implementation of Component A due to frequent changes in
management at SHS and the resulting lack of institutional direction and management
leadership in the intermittent phases, the component’s achieved outcomes continue to
suffer from lack of robustness. Despite the advances made under the project in building the
SHS’s technical capability, the capacity of the SHS to make full use of it to provide
customized, relevant and localized weather, climate and meteorological services to various
users is still fairly limited.
The ability of the SHS to find, attract and retain qualified staff to use the state-of-the art
equipment is still constrained as the SHS’s status to improve remuneration was not changed
despite the support provided by the project. The interviews with the SHS management
indicate that they intend to follow up on some of the institutional recommendations in the
post-completion phase.
Given improvements in performance closer to the end of the project and the recent stability
in the SHS management, a follow-up grant of $500,000 was secured from the Global
Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recover (GFDRR) to help develop the SHS into a more
17
service delivery-oriented agency, guided by the World Meteorological Organization’s
(WMO) Strategy for Service Delivery. This is a useful and needed follow-up activity that
is likely to help cement the development achievements of the project and ensure the
sustainability of the investments under the original project. Interviews with the current
management indicated that they do plan to pursue actions that would enable the SHS to
generate income and improve pay, although it must be noted that even in the most advanced
national hydrometeorological services, income from fee-based services tends to be limited
to a maximum of 20% of total budget. Fee-based services are only successful if they are of
high quality and reliable, and if users/clients have the resources to pay, both of which
continue to be challenges in Moldova.
On the other hand, the DES Emergency Command Center is fully operational, staffed and
budgeted for in terms of post-completion O&M. The Ministry of Finance increased the
budgetary allocation for DES for the operation and maintenance of the ECC by MDL 4.0
million annually. Further DES capacity strengthening is considered under the forthcoming
Climate Adaptation Project. The proposed project is considering the establishment of one
regional Emergency Command Center in Balti, as per the recommendations of the project-
funded feasibility study, to ensure better quality of services at the local level, improve
efficiency of support for remote locations, better support tactical field operations. It will
further build preparedness and response capacity through technical assistance and
investments in equipment, such as fire and rescue vehicles, extreme winter conditions
access capacity, temporary flood management modules, electricity and heat generation, etc.
Similarly, the follow up Climate Adaptation Project will build upon and scale up the
adoption of climate-smart agriculture technologies piloted and tested under the third
component of the Disaster and Climate Risk Management project, such as minimum and
no-till agriculture, drip irrigation, greenhouses, and UV/hail nets.
No follow up work is currently envisaged in terms of removing the existing constraints
related to the optimal use of the just-in-time communication platform built under
Component C, i.e. required improvements in the technical capabilities of the Moldovan
mobile operators to be able to send early warnings messages with useful lead time for users.
These require relatively substantial investments and cannot be forced upon private
operators. It would be useful to keep the issue in the ongoing policy dialogue with the
Government if the platform is to fulfil its original purpose of transmitting just-in-time
localized weather information to subscribed farmers.
3. Assessment of Outcomes
3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation
The Project objectives, design, and implementation continue to remain highly relevant to
Moldova’s development and environmental priorities. The Government of Moldova,
through the Ministry of Environment and with donor-support, developed and approved a
National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for six most vulnerable sectors of the
18
Moldovan economy: agriculture, water resources, forestry, human health, energy and
infrastructure that envisage climate-adaptation investments in these sectors. Reflecting
national priorities, the third pillar of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY14-17
focuses on “promoting a green, clean and resilient Moldova.” The new Systematic Country
Diagnostic (SCD, 2016), validated the hypothesis that climate risk is important for
achieving the twin goals in Moldova. Consistent with the CPS and the national strategy,
the WB Climate Adaptation Investment Planning Technical Assistance conducted a
quantitative assessment of adaptation investment opportunities and returns across the target
sectors.
The capability built in the three institutions under the project continues to be of critical
importance to Moldova’s ability to manage vulnerabilities in those six sectors. These
capabilities will be further strengthened and scaled up through the proposed Moldova
Climate Adaptation Project informed by the WB Climate Adaptation Investment Planning
TA.
3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives
A review of the project development objectives, results and intermediate results indicators
suggests that the project has met the project outcome indicators at completion, although in
relation to SHS the robustness of the achievements leaves to be desired and the risks to the
outcomes remain substantial.
The project objective: is to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological Service’s ability to
forecast severe weather and improve Moldova’s capacity to prepare for and respond to
natural disasters.
PDO Indicators
More specific forecasting of weather conditions.
Baseline: Scale of weather forecasts at 5000 sq. km.
End Target: Scale of weather forecasts reduced to 300 sq.km
Status: The indicator was achieved as the SHS has significantly upgraded its
technical capability with state-of-the-art equipment (weather radar and automatic
weather stations), as well as capacity to assess and utilize regional and global high
resolution information and utilize outputs from global and regional numerical
models such as those of the ECMWF4 (visualization, data analysis and now-casting
tools), to be able to provide weather forecasts at the end target scale. While the
project focused on severe weather such as storms, droughts and extreme
temperatures, by strengthening capacity to forecast basic weather parameters such
as temperature, precipitation and wind, general weather forecasting has also
improved. However, as mentioned above, the robustness of this outcome remains
tenuous, due to possible loss of capacity to utilize instruments and models as SHS’s
institutional issues described above persist. Also, more work is necessary to
4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
19
develop customized weather-related services, particularly for the DES and farmers,
and is likely to supported be with further assistance from the GFDRR grant in the
post-project phase. Finally despite improvements in resolution, quality (in terms of
accuracy and skill) of forecasts needs to be better monitored and if necessary
improved.
Expanded lead-time of weather warnings to users, particularly the Department of
Exceptional Situations (DES)
Baseline: Lead time for severe weather warnings only 10 minutes to 1 hour.
End target: Lead time for severe weather warnings expanded to 3-6 hours.
Status: The indicator was achieved as the communications interface between the
two agencies exists and the ability to provide the required lead-time exists, with
data exchange happening in real time. The utility for emergency response depends
on the ability of SHS to analyze and interpret the raw data coming from the radar,
automated stations and other sources. This capacity is currently fragile, but will be
further strengthened as the SHS will improve its capacity to use the infrastructure
provided by the project, and as further support from the GFDRR grant is provided
for fine-tuning existing and developing new weather information delivery
mechanisms to the DES, as well as other SHS customers. SHS’s recent joining and
launching of MeteoAlarm under EUMETNET5, supported by this project, UNDP
and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG),
reflects existing improvements.
Strengthened capacity to coordinate response to emergencies.
Baseline: No Emergency Command Center to coordinate response among relevant
agencies.
End target: Emergency response drill shows capacity improvements as compared
to the baseline.
Status: The target is achieved as the reports on two emergency drills conducted
during the project lifetime showed capacity improvements in timely mobilization
of relevant authorities and emergency operational units in case of modelled
exceptional situations during the drills. Following implementation completion the
country has not experienced weather-related hazards that would have put the ECC
to the real test. However, the DES is also responsible for responding to man-made
disasters, fires and traffic accidents. The DES management report that
consolidation of emergency call services under the centralized ECC helped improve
the speed of response and deployment of the closest to the DES accident teams. In
the future, the DES would benefit from defining a set of clear and measurable
emergency response indicators for further use in its daily operations.
5 European Meteorological Services Network
20
Intermediate Outcome Indicators
Installation of Doppler radar which improves weather monitoring and forecasting.
Baseline: No effective radar is currently installed.
End target: The radar system is operational.
Status: the indicator was achieved, as the radar system was commissioned in
March 2014. The SHS staff was trained to use the numerical software used to
analyze the incoming raw data and transform it into useful weather products. SHS
and Moldavian Air Traffic Services Authority (MoldATSA) are co-sharing the
radar which is an important arrangement for the sustainability of the investment as
MoldATSA is a more reliably funded agency.
Nowcasting tools, data collection and dissemination improved.
Baseline: The process of automated data collection and dissemination is not
available.
End target: Operational nowcasting is realized: automated data are collected and
integrated with the radar system and properly visualized resulting in timely
warnings for users.
Status: The indicator was completed, although it must be mentioned that the
automated weather stations were acquired with significant delays and delivered
close to the project closing date. This, in turn, delayed the SHS ability to collect,
assimilate and disseminate improved data. The supplier was providing the
required training for SHS users at the time of this ICR writing. Upon completion,
the SHS will be able to use these stations for improved data collection, assimilate
the data from the stations, Doppler radar, global remote sensing and forecast
providers (EUMETSAT6, ECMWF, etc.) through the procured visualization and
forecasting platform, to provide localized weather forecasts.
The Emergency Command Center (ECC) is established, tested and operational
Baseline: An additional floor is built to accommodate the ECC
End target: ECC has been tested and operational.
Status: The Command Center was tested and fully operational. It is a fully
operational state-of-the-art facility that is used by the Committee for Exceptional
Situations for its bi-annual meetings and for regular emergency drills.
The users of ECC are trained to operate the emergency management system
Baseline: no staff currently trained in the emergency management information
system.
End target: Relevant personnel (at least 90) trained in the emergency management
system established in ECC.
Status: completed and operational, 90 ECC users were trained and fully proficient
in using the technical capabilities of the command center.
6 European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
21
At least 50 investments grants provided and put on the demonstration plots
(farmers receive information about practical techniques for adaptation to climate
risks on pilot basis)
Baseline: No activities exist to disseminate practical experience on adaptation to
climate risks other than drought
End Target: 50 demonstration plots are established; 60 demonstration and
dissemination events are organized
Status: The intermediate outcome was met and exceeded. 53 grants had been
provided to set up demonstration plots on climate-resilient practices; 220 other
farmers have replicated the practices on their farms; and 3000 farmers overall
participated in the trainings conducted on the demonstration plots.
Project supported organization(s) publish reports on the effect of collaboration with
stakeholders
Baseline: ‘No’ implying that no disemination efforts were carried or planned
origianlly
End target: ‘Yes’ implying that the results were actively disseminated via various
media channels
Status: The project advertised extensively the availability of the demonstration
plots and the climate-resilient farming techniques by targeting the farmers through
various media tools: 100 media articles; 70 radio broadcasts; 37 TV broadcasts and
video clips; 6 specialized editions about the activities promoted under Component
C on the nation-wide show ‘Bastina’ targeted mostly to rural residents and farmers.
3.3 Efficiency
The original appraisal used conservative assumptions to estimate potential project
performance resulting in an economic rate of return (ERR) of 25 percent, net present value
(NPV) of US$10.3 million, and a benefit-cost (B/C) ratio of 2.0. Subsequent assessment to
prepare the Additional Financing indicated that the addition of US$2.0 million to the costs
would not prevent the project from achieving the originally estimated ERR and B/C ratio,
due to the introduction into the analysis of the mitigated damages (project benefit) for the
catastrophic drought of 2012.
A more detailed and more conservative approach was applied for the post-project economic
performance assessment (see Annex 3 for details) which indicated that the Project with
Additional Financing performed on par with or even better than expected in economic
terms. Even with the most conservative assumptions, the Project is delivering more benefits
than costs at a rate of return greater than the assumed opportunity cost of capital (discount
rate). The ex-post economic analysis indicates solid levels of efficiency in the
implementation of the project.
The project was implemented efficiently. Although project implementation experienced
delay, the project management cost was only 6.4 % of the total project cost.
22
3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
The PDO’s objective remains relevant to Moldova’s ability to prepare for and respond to
natural disasters. The national technical capability was significantly improved with state-
of-the art equipment and information systems both at the SHS and DES. The Emergency
Command Center is fully operational. At project completion, the SHS was not able to use
the upgraded capability to the full extent while the development of the flash flood
forecasting system was dropped. The SHS is poised to develop further its range of
customized weather-related services in the post-implementation period with the help of a
WB/GFDRR grant and support from other bilateral donors, thus making maximum use of
the upgraded equipment and systems and significantly enhancing the development
objective.
3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts
(a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development
The project did not specifically target the poorer sections of Moldovan society. The focus
of the project, particularly of the first two components, was to build the domestic capacity
to provide a public good, i.e. the improved response by national emergency authorities to
weather-related disasters, which benefits the entire society. However, given that such
climate-related disasters disproportionately affect the rural population where most of the
Moldovan poor resides, the investments are expected to have a greater positive impact on
the poor.
Despite almost 80% of the poor and 70% the of lowest 40% of the population by income
being employed in the agricultural sector, and women being more vulnerable to
unfavorable climate conditions, the project missed the opportunity to explicitly integrate
poverty and gender targeting in the selection criteria for the demonstration plots that piloted
climate-resilient techniques. This could have provided important lessons on what
techniques/investments are affordable to the poor and which are beyond their reach.
(b) Institutional Change/Strengthening
The project built capacity in three Moldovan institutions. The project provided modern
forecasting equipment and training on how to use it for the SHS. It strengthened the
capacity of the DES by building a state-of-the-art Emergency Command Center now fully
operational and used by Moldovan authorities in responses to natural and man-made
disasters. Finally, it built capacity at the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry to run
pilot schemes to test modern and climate-responsive agricultural techniques (knowledge
generation). Officials at two institutions, SHS and DES, stressed the capacity
improvements induced by the implementation of a WB-funded project, particularly in
terms of procurement of complex works and goods and developing complex technical
specifications for such acquisitions.
23
(c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative)
The acquisition of the Doppler radar had a positive impact on the Moldovan aviation sector,
particularly the safety of air flights to and from Moldova. The WB insistence on locating
the radar on the premises of MOLDATSA and its use by the agency bodes well for the
sustainability of this investment in Moldova. Although not captured by the results
framework, there is anecdotal evidence that the grant scheme for demonstration plots from
Component C led to the emergence of a network of suppliers of climate-resilient tools and
equipment that was non-existent in the country prior to the implementation the scheme.
Perhaps not totally unintended or unexpected, but similarly not captured in the results
framework, Component C of the project resulted in about 220 climate-resilient practices
replicated on other farms during the lifetime of the project.
3.6 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops
No project completion workshop was held as the Moldova project proponents deemed it
unnecessary due to the small number of well-defined stakeholders, i.e. essentially just the
implementing agencies and their subordinated institutions. Workshops were held by ACSA
upon completion of implementation of Component C, to discuss results with farmers and
consult them on scaling up of adaptation technologies.
4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome
Rating: Significant
The risks to the development outcome remains high. These mainly relate to the
sustainability of the investments made at SHS. Although the SHS’s technical capability
has been significantly upgraded by the project, the SHS’ capacity to fully use the available
equipment on a continuous basis and provide customized weather-related services to the
DES, farmers and other potential clients is still limited. The project helped develop a
strategic organizational plan for SHS that foresaw a change in its status within the
Moldovan public administration with the ability to increase staff salaries and generate
additional income. However, again due to political turmoil, the proposed changes have not
yet been passed by Moldovan authorities and translated into action. Hence, the SHS ability
to retain the skilled staff required to operate sophisticated weather forecasting equipment
remains constrained. Finally, the allocation of the budget required for operation and
maintenance of the acquired equipment will continue to remain a concern.
These risks will be, to a large extent, mitigated by the implementation of the follow-up
GFDRR grant that will assist the SHS in developing weather-forecasting services targeted
to public and commercial clients and aims at building the institutional capacity in line with
the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Strategy for Service Delivery. The
demand for SHS services will be further increased through engagements such as the WB-
funded Climate Adaptation Project (P155968) or EIB Flood Protection Project and
24
Dniester Basin Adaptation Plan (OSCE7 and UNECE8 supported). Additionally, SHS is
part of regional initiatives that are likely to further improve SHS service delivery,
specifically the South East Europe Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System (SEE-
MHEWS-A) and inclusion of Moldova as a priority country under the Global Framework
for Climate Services.
5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance
5.1 Bank Performance
(a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
The Bank helped identify an area of support that is of critical importance for Moldova’s
ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate risks, particularly for a country where
half the population resides in rural areas and relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. The
project design was balanced and targeted critical interventions that addressed priority
technical capability and capacity gaps in responding and mitigating weather-related risks
in three Moldovan institutions. The results framework was compact and captured the key
outputs and outcomes well. The employment of a PMT to coordinate implementation and
manage fiduciary aspects across the three implementing agencies proved a useful and
valuable arrangement to keep the project on track. The Bank team could have paid more
attention to the existing institutional weakness at the SHS. More upfront design elements
focused on capacity building and institutional strengthening could have potentially helped
prevent the implementation delays down the road and served as a useful reference point to
the frequently changed SHS managers. The team could have checked its assumptions about
the availability of mobile operators’ capacity to send multiple simultaneous messages and
the suitability of the off-the-shelf software for the ECC.
(b) Quality of Supervision
Rating: Satisfactory
The Bank was involved and pro-active in the supervision of all the aspects of the project
through regular semi-annual supervision missions involving the full team, and importantly,
through day-to-day dialogue conducted from the country office. The Bank team diligently
reported implementation challenges in the AMs, management letters and/or ISRs and tried
to address the issues expeditiously. e.g. to address implementation challenges at SHS, the
Bank financed an organizational and legal review of the SHS that prepared the ground for
changing its status in the public sector by allowing to increase staff remuneration and be
7 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 8 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
25
able to keep qualified staff. In the midst of numerous reshuffles during the project life, the
Bank engaged pro-actively with the counterpart to bring the incoming officials on board
with the project objective, implementation status and challenges. It must however be
recognized that modernization of hydrometeorological services is a highly technical and
complex niche for which the Bank team struggled to deliver sufficient internal capacity.
This improved throughout the project lifetime by leveraging the development of a
Bank/GFDRR service team on the topic. The Bank team regularly reviewed the safeguard
and fiduciary arrangements for compliance. Recognizing the risk to the sustainability of
the development outcome, particularly for the first component, the Bank team secured a
post-implementation grant to strengthen the service provision side of the SHS.
(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
The quality of the supervision was high as the Bank team responded in a timely and
adequate manner to implementation challenges. The quality at entry could have been better
through a more robust assessment of the capacity of mobile operators to send multiple
messages to farmers. The suitability of the off-the-shelf software for the ECC could have
been verified upfront. The World Bank’s support in project preparation and
implementation is rated as moderately satisfactory as per ICR guidelines that the overall
rating should be the lower of the two.
5.2 Borrower Performance
(a) Government Performance
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
The Government of Moldova and all the implementing agencies strongly supported and
were actively involved in the preparation of the project. However, the project was affected
by the political turmoil of Moldova’s coalition governments and the resulting frequent
reshuffles, particularly at the Ministry of Environment and SHS. Those reshuffles were not
conducive to good implementation progress in Component A and resulted in lack of
oversight, management leadership and direction. At some point the SHS did not have a
General Director for about eight months and implementation was brought to a halt with a
build-up in procurement backlog of up to $2 million. After the mid-term review, the pace
picked up again and the project was completed on a revised schedule after a two-year
extension. Prioritization of hydrometeorological services by the Government, while
identified on paper, remains challenged in terms of actual budgeting and status of the SHS.
(b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
The project involved four implementing institutions: the SHS and the supervisory Ministry
of Environment; the Department of Exceptional Situations and the Ministry of Agriculture.
26
The DES was an exemplary implementing agency. After a relatively slow start related to
the inexperience of working with the Bank, mainly related to the development of complex
technical specifications, it got up to speed and provided the required management
leadership and involvement for a successful completion of Component B on time and on a
revised budget; it cooperated well with the PMT and the Steering Committee. The Ministry
of Agriculture was helpful and provided the support required for the implementation of
Component C through ACSA. The ministerial focal point participated actively in the
development of the grant selection criteria, were active members of the evaluation panels
and were heavily involved in dissemination events. The Ministry of Environment and the
SHS were the most affected institutions in terms of management stability and leadership.
This affected the speed and quality of implementation in Component A, but both
institutions made an effort, particularly after the mid-term review when faced with the
prospect of component cancellation, to accelerate implementation and managed to
complete the most important procurements within the revised project completion date. The
PMT held the entire project together and ensured fiduciary and safeguard compliance.
Staffed with people who had prior experience in WB-funded projects, they were
instrumental in monitoring progress and informing the Steering Committee and other
stakeholders of the emerging problems.
The Steering Committee was a useful overall coordination structure, but its ability to
induce corrective action was limited by the nature of the coalition Government in Moldova
where heads of institution were more accountable to their respective party leadership rather
than formal government arrangements.
(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
Overall borrower performance is rated as moderately satisfactory taking into account the
government‘s commitment in preparing the project, the good progress in two components
and the mobilization to complete the most essential procurements under the first
component of the project after the mid-term review.
6. Lessons Learned
It would be useful to integrate upfront into project design institutional management
capacity building activities, such as development of institutional strategic plans, as
well as operational and investment plans. These serve as useful guidance references
for these agencies, particularly in volatile political environments of coalition
governments where frequent reshuffles can be expected. Such plans, grounded in
thorough contextual analysis, help provide institutional stability and continuity.
This was confirmed by the feedback provided by the current SHS management.
27
Similarly, investments to strengthen/modernize hydrometeorological services
should upfront assess if the involved agency(ies) have modern forecast/service
production processes and standard operating procedures in place. If not, the project
should first support development of such procedures such that subsequent
procurements and capacity building investments are nested within and support a
service producing process. The “bigger picture” must always be kept in mind; such
processes and procurements must ultimately be part of a service-oriented plan to
respond to hydrometeorological information needs. It should be recognized that a
single 5-6 year project will generally not be able to elevate a severely resource-
challenged National Hydrometeorological Service to capacity levels seen in high
income countries.
Technical support provided through Bank-executed TA resources (or other similar
instruments) may be required on a continuous basis to assist implementation by
National Hydrometeorological Services, which may be inexperienced with
implementing large-scale modernization processes and developing complex
technical specifications. Such TA is also helpful in bringing staff up to speed in
operating the new equipment and related software beyond the training provided by
suppliers. Overall, such Bank TA is likely to significantly enhance the likelihood
of achieving project outcomes and their sustainability.
The use of PPF funds and potentially complementary Bank-executed TA resources
for the preparation of feasibility studies before project implementation starts could
inform projects better and save valuable implementation time.
The use of project management teams for fiduciary and compliance purposes as
well as for overall coordination is an extremely practical and valuable arrangement,
particularly when the project involves several implementing agencies. However, it
would be better to involve such units early in project preparation so that: a) the
PMTs have an organically developed understanding of the project; b) other
implementing agencies quickly gain a clear understanding of the PMT’s role in
implementation; c) enable early detection of potential misconceptions about roles
and responsibilities of PMTs verses implementing agencies, thereby allowing
corrective action before the project begins implementation.
The ability of overall project coordination structures, such as Steering Committees,
may have a limited power to induce corrective action in implementing agencies
under coalition Governments, particularly if the heads of such supervisory and
implementing institutions do not share the same party affiliation. To mitigate such
risks, it is useful to map actual accountability lines (rather than formal ones) and
resort more pro-actively to those informal influencers to effect corrective action
and avoid implementation delays that jeopardize project outcomes.
Early and continuous engagement with the Ministry of Finance is required to ensure
that sufficient budget is allocated for the maintenance and operation of the acquired
equipment, or at least that the issue is constantly highlighted. In Moldova, the DES
28
management pursued those discussions more vigorously and secured the required
budget for the ECC while the combination of existing low visibility/marginalization
of the institution and continuous management changes at SHS prevented them from
ensuring the required budget is allocated immediately in the post-project phase.
7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners
(a) Borrower/implementing agencies
29
(b) Cofinanciers
Not applicable
(c) Other partners and stakeholders
A number of other development partners have been involved in providing complementary
technical assistance and support to the SHS during the life-time of the project.
UNDP and the Austrian Development Agency through the UNDP-supported
project ‘Supporting Moldova’s National Climate Change Adaptation Planning
Process’ supported the partnership between the Austrian Central Institute for
Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) and SHS to share best practices on
forecasting and early warning, and explore ways to leverage their partnership’s
strength to benefit communities prone to climate -related disasters. One outcome of
this partnership was SHS becoming a member of the MeteoAlarm, an initiative by
EUMETNET, the Network of European Meteorological Services, active in 35
countries in Europe and strongly supported by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO).
The Czech Development Agency supported the establishment of 11 automated
hydrological posts on the river Prut.
MCC supported the establishment of further 8 automated hydrological posts on the
Nistru and its tributaries.
The EIB supported the Moldova Flood Protection Project with the objective of
developing a flood protection master plan and an associated investment plan along
with the SHS capacity building in flood management, including in hydraulic
modelling.
30
Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing
(a) Project Cost by Component (in USD Million equivalent)
Component Appraisal
Estimate
(USD
millions)
Cost with
Additional
Financing
(USD
millions)
Actual
Latest
Estimate
Percentage
of
Appraisal
(including
AF)
Strengthen Severe Weather
Forecasting
4.36 4.90 5,18
1.18
Improve Disaster
Preparedness and
Emergency Response
2.45 4.44 4,32
1.76
Initiate Activities for
Adaptation to Climate
Risks in Agriculture
1.83 1.96 1,99 1.08
Project Management 0.45 0.7 0.77 1.71
Total Baseline Costs 9.09 12 12.26 1.34
Physical Contingencies 0.45 0 0 0
Price Contingencies 0.45 0 0 0
Total Project Cost 10 12 12.26 1.22
Project Preparation
Facility (PPF)
0 0
Frond-end Fee 0 0
Total Financing
Required
10 12
Note: the actual latest $ estimate is higher due to the favorable USD to XDR exchange rate
(b) Financing
Source Appraisal
Estimate
(USD
millions)
Cost with
Additional
Financing
(USD
millions)
Actual
Latest
Estimate
Percentage
of
Appraisal
Borrower 0 0
IDA 10 12
TOTAL 10 12
31
Annex 2. Outputs by Component
Component A: Strengthen Severe Weather Forecasting
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Sub-Component A.1 – Develop Early Warning/Nowcasting
Capabilities
50,000
101,459
Architectural design of 4
houses for meteorological
stations and one hydrologic
station
The project supported the
preparation of the
construction design for the
construction/reconstruction
of five meteorological
stations. Completed
479,500 768,119 Construction of 4 houses for
meteorological stations
The project supported the
construction of four meteo
stations. The construction of
the fifth one was dropped at
the suggestion of the new
incoming SHS director.
Completed.
13,000
34,050
Supervision of technical
designs’ development and
construction of
hydrometeorological stations
for the State
Hydrometeorological Service
The project supported the
associated engineering
supervision of the
construction. Completed.
100,000 94,801
Construction Works for
Hydrologic gauges on the
Nistru
The project supported the
construction works required
for the installation of
hydrologic gauges on the
Nistru. Completed
15,000 24,656
Refurbishing of calibration
laboratory
The project supported the
renovation of the premises
required for the installation
of the laboratory to calibrate
the equipment purchased
under the project.
Completed
20,000
19,500 Architectural design and
construction works
supervision of Weather
Stations System (AWSs)
infrastructure for State
Hydrometeorological Service
The project supported the
design and supervision
services for the construction
works required to install the
weather station systems.
Completed.
90,000 114,513
Construction Works for
Weather Stations System
(AWSs) infrastructure for the
The project supported the
construction of the
infrastructure required for
32
State Hydrometeorological
Service
the installation of the
automated weather station
systems. Completed.
33,000 29,068
Constructions works, and
installation of equipment
room for server room of
Forecasting National Center
under SHS
The project supported the
renovation of the premises
required for the server room
at the SHS. Completed.
186,200
1,291,833
Procurement of Automatic
Weather Stations System
(AWSs) for State
Hydrometeorological Service
The project supported the
procurement of 32
automated weather post
systems located outside the
four stations and distributed
throughout the country for
the collection of automated
weather information.
Completed.
46,200
32,962
4WD vehicle The project supported the
procurement of the 4WD
vehicle for the SHS.
Completed.
330,000
116,132
Hydrologic gauges on Nistru-
7 tributaries
The project supported the
procurement of six
hydrologic automatic
sensing gauges for
improved management of
water resources. Completed.
73,000
75,967
Procurement of an aluminum
boat and equipment for lake
hydrological station
The project supported the
acquisition of a boat and
hydrological equipment for
collecting water data on the
system of lakes and ponds.
Completed.
165,000
161,316
Procurement of calibration
laboratory for
hydrometeorology
The project supported the
procurement of a laboratory
to calibrate the measuring
equipment acquired with
project funds. Completed.
10,000
5,177
Furniture for calibration
laboratory
The project procured the
office furniture for the
laboratory. Completed.
25,000
20,629
Procurement of furniture for
the new SHS buildings
The project supported the
acquisition of office
furniture for the SHS
premises. Completed.
33
3,100
2,575
Procurement of 2 Pressure
Water Level Meter Sensor
and Training on general
operation and maintenance for
State Hydrometeorological
Service (SHS)
The project supported the
acquisition of water level
sensors and training on their
utilization. Completed.
550,000
408,239
Procurement of Information
System
Visualization, processing,
editing and automatic
production of data for the
forecasting process
for the State
Hydrometeorological Service
of the Republic of Moldova
The project supported the
acquisition of software to
process, visualize the data
produced by various
weather measuring devices
procured under the project.
Completed.
2,000
1,689
Procurement of SIM cards
and routers for AWS&AWSs
SHS
The project supported the
procurement of SIM cards
and routers to transmit data
from the automatic weather
stations to the SHS.
Completed
5,000
1,638
Accreditation of calibration
laboratory
The project supported the
preparation of the
documentation required for
the accreditation of the
calibration laboratory.
However, the process of
accreditation was not
finalized.
66,000 0 Discharge measurement
devices
Although the procurement
was completed, it was
cancelled because the SHS
did not favor the winning
bidder
247,500 0 Developing of flash flood
forecasting system IT product
Cancelled at mid-term in
order to focus on the meteo
forecasting part of the
project
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Sub-Component A.2 – Dual Polarization Doppler Radar
Technology for Localized Forecasts
2,110,000
1,125,635
Weather radar system The project supported the
procurement of a dual
polarization Doppler
radar. Completed.
34
20,000
52,039
Architectural design of tower
and tower foundation for
weather radar system
The project supported the
acquisition of design
services for the radar
tower. Completed.
200,000 238,214
Construction of tower for
weather radar system
The project supported the
construction of the tower
for the installation of the
radar. Completed
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Sub-Component A.3 – Development of Plans for
Seasonal/Climate Forecasts
192,400
297,997
Soil moisture probes The project supported the
acquisition of probes to
measure soil moisture
used in case of droughts.
59,000
56,515 Met center computers The project supported the
acquisition of computers
to process the results of
the soil moisture probes.
Completed.
16,500
29,760
Agromet data processing and
visualization software
The project supported the
acquisition of the software
to process the information
of the soil moisture
probes. Completed.
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Sub-Component B.3 – Capacity Building and Evaluation
77,000
10,370
Trainings & Workshops for IT users The project supported
the training of at least
90 relevant staff in
the use of the ECC
communications and
IT systems.
Completed.
Component C: Initiate Activities for Adaptation to Climate Risks in Agriculture
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Sub-Component C.1 – Development of a Just-in-Time
(JIT) Communication Platform
100,000
184,028
Design of the architecture and the
test-mode operationalization of the
communication platform & IT
The project
supported the
development of the
just-in-time
35
hardware for a mobile JIT
communication platform
communication
platform that was
designed to provide
early weather
warnings to farmers.
Completed.
11,050 12,267.15
Trainings & Workshops for MAFI
Staff
The project provided
trainings, workshops
and study tours
workshops for the
Ministry of
Agriculture on
climate-change
topics related to
agriculture.
Completed.
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Sub-Component C.2 – Adverse Weather Adaptation
Advisory Services
1,757,700
1,760,055
Piloting activities for increasing the
resilience of the agricultural sector to
adverse weather including Grants
Program and results dissemination
The project provided
investment grants for
piloting climate-
resilient techniques
on selected
demonstration plots
25,000 15,190
Project Assignment Coordinator
(Comp. C)
The project provided
funds for a
component
coordinator
Estimated
$USD
Actual
$USD
Component D: Project Management
450,000 770,000 Project Management Team,
including M&E and financial audits
The project provided
funds for the overall
coordination effort
carried out by the
Project Management
Team
36
Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis
The original appraisal used conservative assumptions to estimate potential project
performance resulting in an economic rate of return (ERR) of 25 percent, net present value
(NPV) of US$10.3 million, and a benefit-cost (B/C) ratio of 2.0. Subsequent assessment to
prepare the Additional Financing indicated that the addition of US$2.0 million to the costs
would not prevent the project from achieving the originally estimated ERR and B/C ratio,
due to the introduction into the analysis of the mitigated damages (project benefit) for the
catastrophic drought of 2012.
A more detailed and more conservative approach was applied for the post-project economic
performance assessment. The official loss data from Civil Protection and Emergency
Situation Service (CPESS) forthe1997-2016 period was reviewed, and due to 1997-2000
being excessively high relative to GDP (therefore considered outliers), these years were
omitted from the analysis. The resultant average annual disaster loss pre-project (2001-
2010) was 1.35% of GDP, which is lower than the figure used during appraisal (1.76%,
computed from the international disasters database EM-DAT 9 ). While CPESS has
indicated challenges in its collection and computation methodology, this local loss data is
still considered more robust than that of EM-DAT.
During project implementation (2011-2016), the average annual loss was 0.71% of GDP.
A significant caveat of this analysis is that this change in average annual loss (from 1.35%
to 0.71% of GDP) cannot unequivocally be attributed to the project. It could be that the
project years simply experienced lower hydrometeorological hazard frequencies and
magnitudes, and there may have been other national gains in resilience through for example
infrastructure reinforcement. The original appraisal assumed that 25% of preventable
disaster losses could be prevented by the project. Globally, assumptions on the economic
loss reducing potential of early warning ranges from 5%-20%. To adhere to a conservative
approach, a lower value of 10% was applied during this post-project analysis, also since
the project focused primarily on early warning and less so on the early action needed to
realize the full benefits.
Cost-benefit analysis was performed for the project period plus 15 years thereafter (2011-
2031), aligned with the lifespan assumption used during preparation. Project disbursement
costs (capital costs) were augmented with operations and maintenance costs assumed to be
15% of total capital costs (the average of the “rule of thumb” used for hydrometeorological
services), increasing based on past disbursements during the project period, and then
remaining stable during the 15-year lifespan. Benefits were as mentioned assumed to be
10% of reduced losses; for past years CPESS loss data was used, for future years avoided
loss was estimated based on % of GDP loss reduced between the pre-project and project
9 EM-DAT is a global database on natural and technological disasters, containing essential core data on the
occurrence and effects of more than 21,000 disasters in the world, from 1900 to present. EM-DAT is
maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the School of Public
Health of the Université Catholique de Louvain located in Brussels, Belgium.
37
years (2001-2010 verses 2011-2016), and utilizing conservative GDP projections (IIASA10
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways “fragmentation” scenario, SSP3). It was further assumed
that no benefits accrued during 2011-2014 as most investments were not yet operational,
50% of potential benefits accrued during 2015, and 100% during 2016-2031. Unlike the
economic assessment for the Additional Financing, this therefore omitted any potential
benefits accrued during the catastrophic drought of 2012.
The analysis was performed across a range of discount rates and also under an even more
conservative assumption that the project is able to deliver only 5% of reduced loss, as
opposed to 10%. The results are summarized in the Table below.
PAD Post-project
% of reduced loss 25% 10% 5%
Discount rate 12% 12% 5% 1% 12% 5% 1%
NPV (US$ millions) $10.3 $42.8 $85.0 $126.2 $4.7 $24.1 $42.3
B/C ratio 2.0 2.3 3.3 4.0 1.1 1.7 2.0
ERR 25% 28% 14%
The results indicate that the project with Additional Financing performed on par with or
even better than expected in economic terms. Even with the most conservative assumptions,
the project is delivering more benefits than costs at a rate of return greater than the assumed
opportunity cost of capital (discount rate). When the relatively high assumption of 25% of
reduced losses being attributable to the project and relatively low assumption of O&M
costs being 6% of capital costs is applied (as used during the preparation analysis),
performance improves to a B/C ratio of 8.3 and ERR of 54%.
10 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
38
Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes
(a) Task Team members
Names Title Unit
Lending
Curtis B. Barrett HQ Consultant ST GSU09
Arcadii Capcelea Senior Environmental Specialist GEN03
Elena Corman Procurement Specialist GGO03
Oxana Druta Financial Management Specialist GGO21
Erick C.M. Fernandes Adviser GFA04
Anatol Gobjila Senior Agriculture Economist GFA03
Delphine Alberta Hamilton Senior Program Assistant GSU09
Jolanta Kryspin-Watson Lead Disaster Risk Management GSU08
Salman Anees Soz Consultant MNCIQ
Supervision/ICR
Daniel Kull Senior Disaster Risk Management
Specialist GSU09
Alexei Ionascu Consultant
(b) Staff Time and Cost
Stage of Project Cycle
Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only)
No. of staff weeks USD Thousands (including
travel and consultant costs)
Lending
Total: 41.16 181.66
Supervision/ICR
Total: 114.01 522.14
39
Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results
No beneficiary survey was envisaged under the project at project design. The fact that no
beneficiary survey was added when additional financing was considered for the project is
a missed opportunity as it was a corporate requirement by that time.
41
Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR
This Annex includes: (a) An extract from the ‘Republic of Moldova, Disaster and Climate
Risk Management Project’ containing the GoM’s conclusions regarding the achievement
of project objectives, and (b) Government of Moldova comments on the draft ICR
(forthcoming).
(a) Government of Moldova Conclusions on the Achievement of Project Objectives
As a whole, the Project Development Objective has been achieved. The SHS’s capabilities
to forecast severe weather has been strengthen and Moldova’s capacity to prepare for and
respond to natural disasters has been improved.
After completion of the project SHS has substantially improved technical capacities to
monitor weather and issue early warnings of weather-related hazards and to provide timely
and accurate hydrometeorological forecasts and services compared with the period up to
the project.
The Emergency Command Center is functional and is equipped with the most advanced
specialized equipment and staff is well trained. Thereby substantially increased the
CPESS’s and Government capabilities to manage and coordinate responses to natural and
man-made disasters.
By operating the JIT communication platform, a large number of farmers and rural
communities receive operative alerts and localized weather information. Pilot projects on
adaptation to climate change supported the project demonstrated the effectiveness of
applied measures to mitigate agricultural losses and this experience was later taken and
multiple replicated by other farmers with their own resources.
However, the activities carried out under this project needs to be completed and continued
under the future possible projects.
In particular this relates to completion by the SHS of activities for putting into service of
the equipment purchased, reorganization of the service based on the new concept of
strategic development, human capacity building, including staff training in the operation
and maintenance of performance equipment and stopping the flow of qualified staff.
On the other hand, CPESS needs to continue its capacity building through creating and
equipping other two regional command centers in the north and south, as well as a regional
training center for exceptional situations. CPESS also needs to modernize much of the
equipment and technical means for intervention in emergencies.
In agriculture sector it is necessary to continue the activities of farmers’ adaptation to
climate change, particularly with reference to droughts and frosts, as well as restoring
pastures and degraded land.
(b) Government of Moldova Comments on the ICR
42
Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders
Comments on the project by ZAMG, the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, a partner institution for the Moldovan State Hydrometeorological
Service
The Republic of Moldova’s economy, population and environment are highly vulnerable
to extreme weather events, climate variability and climate change. Impacts of severe
weather and climate change are expected to intensify in the next decades. Therefore, the
project aims at strengthening the State Hydrometeorological Service’s (SHS) ability to
forecast severe weather. In general, the outcomes improve Moldova’s capacity to prepare
for and respond to natural disasters.
Modern meteorological and hydrological observing systems provide real time observations.
They are essential for the monitoring of the actual weather situation. The provision of
accurate and timely early warnings of weather-related hazards with the required high
spatial resolution critically relies on the availability of these measurements. The
availability of observations from automatic weather stations and weather radar permit the
application of state of the art now-casting methods in the SHS forecast center. These
observations were not available at SHS in the past.
Thus a country wide network of automatic weather stations was established. A state of the
art Doppler weather radar with dual pol capabilities was installed on a tower at a suitable
location at Chisinau Airport. Meteorological radar allows the location of severe
thunderstorms, hail and gust fronts (strong winds). Data from the observational systems
are now collected, transferred and integrated in near real time to the meteorological
workstations of the forecasters at SHS. The meteorological workplace acquired in the
project provides the possibility for the proper visualization of the observations and serves
as a tool for the generation of forecasts and severe weather warnings. In addition, the results
of global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and satellite images are made
available for forecasters. A software for the production and dissemination of warnings and
forecasts was installed at SHS and supplements the meteorological workplace.
With the activities carried out in the project elements of a state of the art forecast/warnings
production chain have been implemented at SHS. The expected timely dissemination of
the warnings to users, customers and the general public results in enhanced lead time.
Operational Now Casting systems, connecting radar, satellite, automatic weather stations
are at the moment not existing or operational. Observation of the water levels are required
for the monitoring of the major rivers and flood warnings. The project contributes also to
the improvement of the hydrological network. On the other hand, a connection to a model
for hydro-forecasts is not installed at SHS.
The project took the importance of training and capacity building into account and a certain
amount of training have been provided, some elements like impact based forecast
generation are still missing. Investments in infrastructure were supplemented by training
activities for the SHS staff. Other missing infrastructure elements are data platforms and
structured IT driven data flows.
43
The project strengthened the cooperation and coordination with civil protection agency.
The intensified cooperation is essential for the transition from pure weather warnings to
impact orientated warnings, which will be the major challenge for SHSM weather
forecasters in the next years.
Low salaries at SHS will pose a continuous challenge to maintain well trained personal,
fluctuation of the best trained people has been high.
It is expected that droughts become more frequent in the next decades due to climate
change. Soil moisture probes and IT infrastructure (hard and software) for the analysis of
the samples were acquired. Soil moisture is a relevant parameter for drought monitoring.
The achieved project goals complement and support in an ideal manner the ongoing
cooperation between SHS and ZAMG. ZAMG supports the membership of SHS to
EUMETNET (European Meteorological Services Network). The membership allows the
integration of the observational systems purchased in the project to the European
meteorological infrastructure. SHS participates to the EUMETNET programs
MeteoAlarm/EMMA (www.meteoalarm.eu) and OPERA (European weather radar
network).
44
Annex 9 - Comparison of Indicators in PAD Section A and the Supplemental Letter
PAD Section A Supplemental Letter
1 More specific forecasting of
weather conditions
1 More specific forecasting of
weather conditions
2 Expanded lead time of weather
warnings to users, particularly DES
2 Expanded lead time of weather
warnings to users, particularly DES
3 Strengthened capacity to
coordinate response to emergencies
3 Strengthened capacity to coordinate
response to emergencies
4 Installation of Doppler radar which
improves weather monitoring and
forecasting
4 Installation of Doppler radar which
improves weather monitoring and
forecasting
5 Now-casting tools, data collection
and dissemination improved
5 Now-casting tools, data collection
and dissemination improved
6 The ECC is established, tested and
operational
6 The ECC is established, tested and
operational
7 ECC users are trained to operate
the emergency management system
7 ECC users are trained to operate the
emergency management system
8 At least 50 investment grants
provided and put on the
demonstration plots (farmers
receive information about practical
techniques for adaptation to
climate risks on pilot basis)
8 At least 50 investment grants
provided and put on the
demonstration plots (farmers
receive information about practical
techniques for adaptation to climate
risks on pilot basis)
9 Project supported organization(s)
publish reports on the effect of
collaboration with stakeholders
9 Project supported organization(s)
publish reports on the effect of
collaboration with stakeholders
45
Annex 10. List of Supporting Documents
Project Identification Document (November 15, 2009)
Integrated Safeguards Datasheet (June 15, 2010)
Project Appraisal Document (July 06, 2010, Report No: 53050-MD)
Financing Agreement (August 12, 2010)
Additional Financing Agreement (May 21, 2015)
Supplemental Letter no. 2 to the Additional Finance Agreement (May 21, 2015)
Project Paper on Additional Financing (April 28, 2015, Report No: PAD1183)
Country Partnership Strategy for FY 2009-2012 (Report No.-46822-MD)
Country Partnership Strategy for FY 2014-2017 (Report No. 79701-MD)
Aide-memoires (2010-2016)
Back-to-office reports and letters to Government (2010-2016)
Implementation Status and Results Reports (2010-2016)
Procurement Plans (2010-2016)
Project Procurement Post Reviews (2010-2016)
Project Financial Audits (2010-2016)
ACSA Final Report on Adverse Weather Adaptation Advisory Service, 2014
ACSA Final Report on Design, Management and Operation of the Alert Through
Mobile Service, 2013
Project and Background papers:
Project Operational Manual (October 28, 2010)
South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Program”; World
Bank; UN ISDR; March 2008
“Mitigating the Adverse Financial Effects of Natural Hazards on the Economies
of South Eastern Europe”; World Bank; UN ISDR; March 2008
“South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Initiative – Risk
Assessment for South Eastern Europe”; World Bank; UN ISDR; March 2008
“Strengthening the Hydrometeorological Services in South Eastern Europe”;
World Bank; UN ISDR; World Meteorological Organization; Finnish
Meteorological Institute; August 2008
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