Wind Power: Keeping the Lights On · Wind Power: Keeping the Lights On Simon Mahan Director...

Wind Power: Keeping the Lights On

Simon MahanDirector

Southern Wind Energy Association

September 14, 2016

About

• The Southern Wind Energy

Association (SWEA) is an industry-led

initiative that promotes responsible use

and development of wind energy in

the South.

• Our vision is for wind energy to

become a leading source of energy in

the South

• SWEA’s geographic region covers

eleven Southeastern states

Overview

• Background

• Turbine Resilience

• Wind Benefits

• Opportunities

Southern Wind Farms

Buffalo Mountain Wind Farm—near Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Powers 3,400 homes a year

Amazon Wind Farm: NC—

Will be first modern large-scale project in South

Southern Wind Energy Contracts

Turbine Resilience

Multiple climate change threats• Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Floods, Lightning,

Drought• Withstand: Category 3 Hurricanes,

tornadoes

Multiple survivability strategies• Active Yaw• Feathering• Brakes• Stronger Construction• Lightning Systems

Photo: Dennis Oswald

Turbine Resilience

Tropical Storm Iselle (Hawaii, 2014) – 50 MPH• Wind farms unaffected

Super Storm Sandy (East Coast, 2012) – 80 MPH• No turbines damaged

Hurricane Irene (East Coast, 2011) – 72 MPH• 174 MW contacted, none affected

Irene (2011)

“It wasn’t necessary as it turned out, but better safe than sorry — if we’d known it was going to only be Cat 1, it would have been more fun to be generating electricity.”

Sandy

Hint.fm/wind

3,500 MW Wind Capacity Affected

Sandy - Delaware

Sandy – New Jersey

Credit: New Jersey Clean Energy Program

Sandy – New Jersey

Wind Benefits

Sea Power, 2013

Wind Benefits

Wind Benefits

Wind Benefits

Sea Power, 2013

Wind Benefits

AWEA 2015

PJM Response to Polar Vortex

Wind Energy Opportunities

• Import via SPP/MISO/PJM• High Capacity Factor (45-50%+)• Low Cost ($20s/MWh)• Variable Transmission Charges

• HVDC Transmission• High Capacity Factor (55%+)• Low Cost ($20s/MWh)• Improved Capacity (Oversubscription)• Fixed Transmission Charge

• In-State Resources• Lower Capacity Factors (30-40%+)• Higher Cost• Little/No Transmission• In-State Econ. Benefits

Wind Prices have Declined

Lazard 2015Un

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Unsubsidized Recent Price Trends

Lazard 2015

Wind energy is capable of being the lowest cost energy resource, even unsubsidized.

Recent Price Trends

LBNL 2016

*Natural gas fuel cost only, does not include capital, financial or O&M costs

Tax Credit Phase-out

Adapted from Mark Bolinger, "An Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Implications of Different Approaches to Capturing the Value of Renewable Energy Tax Incentives", Lawrence Berkeley National Lab 2014

Utilities could lose at least $217 million on 1,000 MW of wind energy by waiting a year.

2016 2017 2018 2019

Contact

Simon Mahan

Director

Southern Wind Energy Association

simon@southernwind.org

www.southernwind.org