Wicked Problems Analysis of State Failure and ... · Synergy method Synergy determined by x y...

Wicked Problems Analysis of State

Failure and Sustainability Policy:

A Synergy Analysis between Fragile

State Index and Sustainable Society

Index Frameworks

Jari Kaivo-oja, Jarmo Vehmas, Jyrki LuukkanenFinland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics

Synergy method

Synergy determined by xy

Negative synergy = trade-off

16.6.2015 2

dcxybyaxz A

B

x0

y0

x

y

x1

y1

x

y

z0

yxyxxyyxcybxaz 00

A

B

x0

y0

x

y

x1

y1

x

y

z0

Synergy method

• Zero synergy = de-linking

• Synergy measure:

• Graphical measure

• Potential synergy – not

indicating causal relations

3

AB

x0

y0

x

y

x1

= y1

x

y =0

z0

y

xs

A

F E

D C

B

Synergy method

Synergy between

three trends

4

AA’

H

G

F

E

D

C

BB’

F’

C’

E’

H’

G’

D’

y

x

z

y

x

z

Example study of synergy

Example:

GDP and CO2

WEAK SYNERGY

Longer time frame:

5

GDP per capita and CO2 per capita (EU-15, 1995

and 2005)

95

100

105

95 105 115 125

GDP per capita

CO

2 p

er

ca

pit

a

1995

2005

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Syn

erg

y fa

cto

r

Synergy trend between CO2 and GDP from 1960 to 2007

Example study of synergy

UK: GDP and CO2

Trade-off

De-linking

6

GDP per capita and CO2 per capita (UK, 1995 and

2005)

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

90 100 110 120 130

GDP per capitaC

O2 p

er

cap

ita

1995

2005

Synergy trend between CO2 per capita and GDP per capita

in UK from 1995 to 2005

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

years

Syn

erg

y f

acto

r

Example study of synergy

Greece: GDP and CO2

Strong synergy

7

GDP per capita and CO2 per capita (Greece, 1995 and

2005)

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

90 100 110 120 130 140 150

GDP per capita

CO

2 p

er

cap

ita

2005

1995

Synergy trend between GDP and CO2 in Greece from 1995

to 2005

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

time

Syn

erg

y f

acto

r

Analysis of synergy between

Fragile Sate Index and

Sustainable Society Index

• The Fragile States Index is an annual ranking of

178 nations based on their levels of stability and the

pressures they face

– highlights global political, economic and social

pressures experienced by states

– data from three primary sources is triangulated

– twelve key political, social and economic indicators

and over 100 sub-indicators

– Fund for Peace

Sustainable Society Index

SSI

Synergy between Faragile State Index

and Sustainable Society Index

• Fragile State Index (FSI) converted to

Rubust State Index (RSI) using

RSI = 140 – FSI

• Increase in RSI is positive

• Increase in SSI is positive

Synergy between

Fragile State

Index (RSI)

Sustainable Society Index

Human Welbeing

Environmental Welbeing

Economic Welbeing

Index used was ”inverse” of FSI

Robust State Index

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14

Vietnam

HW-RSI-Synergy-Vietnam EnW-RSI-Synergy-Vietnam EcW-RSI-Synergy-Vietnam

Case study of Vietnam

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14

Indonesia

HW-RSI-Synergy-Indonesia EnW-RSI-Synergy-Indonesia EcW-RSI-Synergy-Indonesia

Case study of Indonesia

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14

India

HW-RSI-Synergy-India EnW-RSI-Synergy-India EcW-RSI-Synergy-India

Case study of India

Case study of India

-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00

Average India

EcW-RSI-Synergy-India

EnW-RSI-Synergy-India

HW-RSI-Synergy-India

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14

Russia

HW-RSI-Synergy-Russia EnW-RSI-Synergy-Russia EcW-RSI-Synergy-Russia

Case study of Russia

Conclusions

• The new quantitative synergy assessment

method provides possibilities to analyse

synergies, trade-offs and de-linking between

trends

• Provides a tool to analyse trends of different

dimensions of sustainable development

• Provides a basis for comparative policy

analysis

• Provides a measure of potential synergy –

does not indicate causality

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Conclusions cont.

• Synergy method can be utilized for assessing

wicked problems if suitable data is available

• Indicator data related to wicked, complex and

interlinked issues, such as sustainability, is

available, but often it is not possible to have long

time series data

• The properties of data may be problematic: data

should be ”cumulative” - not annual change

data

Thank you

Jyrki Luukkanen

Finland Futures Research Centre

University of Turkujyrki.luukkanen@utu.fi

http://ffrc.utu.fi/en/

www.mekong.fi

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