View
214
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
Why Study Why Study Environmental Environmental Geology?Geology?
Poorna Pal, MS MBA Ph.D.
Professor of GeologyChair: Geology & Oceanography ProgramGlendale Community College
Disaster mitigation has becomeDisaster mitigation has become a socioeconomic necessity because of increasing
– Fatalities– damage and destruction
an increasingly complex task because of intricate public policy choices
in addition to the perennial problems ofin addition to the perennial problems of a seemingly insatiable demand for the natural
resources and the attendant problems of environmental
degradation and climate change.
FatalitiesFatalitiesSince the 1970s, natural disasters have produced two-thirds of all disaster-related fatalities worldwide.
Fatalities are more common in the economically less developed Third World than in the economically developed world.
FOR MORE INFO...
FOR MORE INFO...
* International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)
High wind: 21%
Earthquakes: 8%Earthquakes: 8%
Flood: 19%Flood: 19%
Other naturalOther naturaldisasters: 21%disasters: 21%
Volcanoes: 1%Volcanoes: 1%
Drought & Famine: 6%Drought & Famine: 6%Landslides: 3%Landslides: 3%
Man-madeMan-madedisasters: 34%disasters: 34%
Disasters*Disasters*by type: 1971-96by type: 1971-96
TotalFatalities
worldwide: (1971-96)8,219,000
back
00 44 88 1212 1616
ETHIOPIAETHIOPIA
CHINACHINABANGLADESHBANGLADESH 31.931.9
SUDANSUDAN
48.448.4
DISASTER FATALITIES* (1971-96: IN THOUSANDS)DISASTER FATALITIES* (1971-96: IN THOUSANDS)
MOSTLY FLOODSMOSTLY FLOODS
MOSTLY FAMINEMOSTLY FAMINE
MOZAMBIQUEMOZAMBIQUE
MOSTLY MASS STARVATIONMOSTLY MASS STARVATION
INDIAINDIA
SOVIET UNION/CIS STATESSOVIET UNION/CIS STATES
IRANIRAN
PHILIPPINESPHILIPPINES
NICARAGUANICARAGUA
COLUMBIACOLUMBIA
GUATEMALAGUATEMALA
SOMALIASOMALIA
NIGERIANIGERIA
PERUPERU
MEXICOMEXICO
HONDURASHONDURAS* International Federation of Red Cross * International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies and Red Crescent Societies (The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)(The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)
MOSTLY FLOODSMOSTLY FLOODS
back
Deaths
Damage
Changes, in this century, in the number ofChanges, in this century, in the number of deaths and cost of damage, in U.S. hurricanes
(cost in billion 1996$)
Source: Harvey Blatt: OUR GEOLOGIC ENVIRONMENT (Prentice Hall, 1997) back
The Complexities of Disaster The Complexities of Disaster Mitigation StrategiesMitigation Strategies
Predictive value of the scaling law Predictive value of the scaling law and its implications for the public-and its implications for the public-policy choices.policy choices.
Population Growth, Technology and Population Growth, Technology and Environmental StressEnvironmental Stress
FOR MORE INFO...
FOR MORE INFO...
0.1
1
10
0.01
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
FloodsFloods
Hurricanes
EarthquakesEarthquakes
Nu
mb
er o
f ev
ents
per
yea
r N
um
ber
of
even
ts p
er y
ear
Tornadoes
The U.S. 20th Century The U.S. 20th Century Natural Disaster Fatality-Natural Disaster Fatality-
Frequency PlotsFrequency Plots
This exponential scaling This exponential scaling gives us three alternative gives us three alternative choiceschoices
Flatten the curveFlatten the curve Steepen the curveSteepen the curve Lower the interceptLower the intercept
1
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
5
50
All
in
dex
ed t
o 1
920
= 1
All
in
dex
ed t
o 1
920
= 1
World World PopulatioPopulationn11
11 J. Bradford DeLong: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ J. Bradford DeLong: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/
Gross Gross World World
ProductProduct11
22 P. Jorion & W. Goetzmann: Journal of Finance, 54(3), June 1999 P. Jorion & W. Goetzmann: Journal of Finance, 54(3), June 1999
World World Stock Stock MarketMarket22
100
1000
10000
110100100010000
Years Before the Present
GD
P, p
er capita, in
inflatio
n
adju
sted 2000 P
PP
$ 1
10
100
1000
10000W
orl
d P
op
ula
tio
n
(in
mill
ion
)
Ear
thq
uak
e fa
talit
ies,
(pe
r m
illio
n in
hab
ita
nts
)W
orld
po
pu
lation
(in b
illion
s)
100
10
0.1 01500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
1
0.1 0
2
4
6
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
1
0.1 0
2
4
6
FranceFranceU.K.U.K.
ChinaChina
SwedenSweden
RussiaRussia
USAUSA
BrazilBrazilItalyItaly
SingaporeSingapore
0.10.1
11
1010
100100
0.010.01 0.10.1 11 1010
MexicoMexico
GermanyGermanyIndiaIndia JapanJapan
NorwayNorwaySwtizerlandSwtizerland
Saudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaNetherlandsNetherlands AustraliaAustralia
SpainSpain
Economic prosperity and energy Economic prosperity and energy consumption are closely correlatedconsumption are closely correlated
En
ergy
con
sum
pti
on
En
ergy
con
sum
pti
on
(in
ter
rajo
ule
s)(i
n t
erra
jou
les)
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $
0.030.03
0.10.1
11
33
0.10.1 11 1010
0.30.3
330.30.30.030.03
USAUSA
ChinaChina
JapanJapan
RussiaRussia
GermanyGermanyIndiaIndia
U.K.U.K.
UkraineUkrainePolandPoland
CanadaCanada
ItalyItaly
FranceFrance
IranIran
BrazilBrazil
MexicoMexicoSouthSouthKoreaKorea
AustraliaAustralia
SouthSouthAfricaAfricaNorthNorth
KoreaKorea
KazakstanKazakstan
… … and so are economic prosperity and so are economic prosperity and carbon emmissionsand carbon emmissions
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $GDP (PPP) in trillion US $
Tot
al E
mis
sion
T
otal
Em
issi
on
(bil
lion
ton
s C
eq
uiv
alen
t)(b
illi
on t
ons
C e
qu
ival
ent)
Flo
w o
f C
olor
ado
Riv
er b
elow
all
maj
or d
ams
and
d
iver
sion
s (b
illi
on
m/y
r)3
40
30
10
20
20001900 1920 1940 19801960Sandra Postel: Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy (STATE OF THE WORLD 1996: Worldwatch Institute , 1996)
Colorado River
Mexico
United States
Str
ea
m F
low
in
to A
ral S
ea
(b
illio
n m
/ye
ar)
3Drying of the Aral Sea
Sandra Postel: Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy (STATE OF THE WORLD 1996: Worldwatch Institute , 1996)
1940 2000198019600
80
20
40
60
Aral Sea
Thus, the environmental stress Thus, the environmental stress attendant to population growth attendant to population growth presents a catch-22 situation:presents a catch-22 situation:
Poverty and deprivation enhance Poverty and deprivation enhance environmental stress.environmental stress.
But this stress is only aggravated But this stress is only aggravated by the technology that is needed by the technology that is needed to ameliorate the deprivation. to ameliorate the deprivation.
Recommended