Where Were Ware Wear

WhereWereWareWear ables

Peter Cochrane

ConceptLabs CA

The next 20 years will see more change that the previous 200…

…this is the nature of exponential change

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Beyond maps & mapping….

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…and beyond satellite images…

Home made maps

& activity tracking

USA amateurs are now venturing into 3D maps with panoramic camera additions of specific locations + vidcam feeds and data from sensors

My prediction

Positioning systems will become as essentialas communication nets in the future economy

People look at problems through one of these:

When they actually need one of these:

Faster & faster wealth generation

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

New

Com

pan

y V

alu

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US$Bn

PCInternet

Year

Mobile

Prediction

2015

Super iPod

Every music track ever recorded on a single device in your shirt pocket…

…& 10 years later every movie…

Change takes time…

Mobile phones > Fixed line = 12 yearsDigital Fax > Analogue Fax = 8 yearsColour TV > B&W TV = 11 yearsCD > Audio Tape = 9 yearsDVD > VHS Tape = 7 yearsDigital Nets > Analogue Nets = 15 yearsOptical Fibre > Copper + Microwave = 20 years

Society Companies Consumers Technologies

4020

101

Change

Time

Years

Business

TechnologyPeople

HotSpot

Where the action always is!

Echo- System

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A commonly held view…more of the same… …but better!

Today: Big growth areas in mobile...

• Gambling

• Ring Tones

• Wallet

• Pic sharing

•Music sharing

•Movie sharing

Tomorrow: Big growth areas in mobile...

• Positioning

• Tracking

• Monitoring

• Sensors

• Healthcare

•Navigation

• Security

watch

Phone

Game Console

GPS Device

Television

Walkie-Talkie

Rolodex

FM Radio

Camcorder

Camera

PDA

Pager

PortableMP3/Video

PC

What is All This Garbage?Let’s converge into one device

Or a nightmare offeature death…doing everythingbadly?

Personal Space

Bluetooth

UWB

RFID

LAN MAN WANPAN

City

Community

WMAN

WiMAX

Beam Forming

Cellular/Satellites

International

HSDPA

WCDMA

UMTS

WLAN 802.11X

WiFi

Campus, Office, Airport, Home

The dream….…seamless access!

3m 30m 3km Ubiquitous

Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning

RFID will revolutionize every aspect of the supply chain - from raw materials to manufacture, logistics, supply & support.

In the field of healthcare RFID will save lives, increase efficiency and reduce costs.

A retail revolution - RFID &WiFi in every EPOS

RFID + multiple sensor chips + nano gyroswill also fit inside mobile phones

Cell Phone also becomes: a wallet, transaction centre, passport, ID and passport, insurance/medical record + locator and tracking device

Location by: triangulation, GPS, RFID, EPOS, WiFi, BlueTooth, NanoGyros - inertial record….

If time = money......then so does position!

Current GPS Applications

PowerTelecommunicationLaw EnforcementEmergency ServicesWeather ScientificConstructionCensusRecreationAsset Tracking

AviationMaritimeHighwayRailroadMass TransitCrime PreventionSurveyingAgricultureBankingDefenc(s)e

2015

2005 = GPS Alone ~100 - 10m….military ~1m 2010 = GPS + GSM~1m…… military ~10cm2015 = GPS + GSM+ EPOS + MEMS ~1cm

Ford Escape HEV Ford Escape HEV

The destruction of the insurance industryby RFID + GPS +++?

Where are my things?

Who has them?

What are they doing?

One of the biggest opportunities… …risk mitigation in logistics…

Things sometimes go abit wrong!

>10,000 containersper yearpushed overboardin stormy weather…

…or lost atsea by somemechanism

RFID

Packs

Containers

Goods

Higher orders of complexity

to come!

Average truck fill in the UK ~17%

In the next phase RFID + GPS +AI takes over….

…and > $2T may be saved!

On-Line Monitoring Anywhere Anytime Any Activity

Sporting

Working

Zzzzzzz...

Surrogate surgery

Dublin

Sheffield

MM, VR, Telepresence will change...

...the way service is delivered& education & training isprovided

A world of opportunity & risk….

Thank you,

cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net