What’s Climate Got To Do With It? · •Weather: conditions at a specific location and time...

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Trevor Murdock

29 November 2018 Getting Climate Ready – Adaptation Tools for Northwest Communities Terrace, BC

What’s Climate Got To Do With It?

Nutrition Facts Serving Size 1 presentation

Amount Per Serving

Slides 26 Minutes 30

% Daily Value*

Maps 6 300%

Plots 2 80%

Photos 7 50%

Cartoons 0 0%

Humour 5% ?

* Percent Daily Values are based on a diet of a one day workshop

Taking future climate into account is

necessary

possible

December 2nd 2005

• 6°C snowing in ______

• 19°C sunny in ______

Climate: long term statistics of weather

Weather: conditions at a specific location & time

Victoria Montreal

• Weather: conditions at a specific location and time – December 2nd 2005

• 6°C snowing in Victoria

• 19°C sunny in Montreal

• Climate: long term statistics of weather – 1971-2000 average December

Climate: Long Term Statistics of Weather

Temperature Anomaly °C

Climate varies by location & with time

Temperature Anomaly °C

Climate Varies by Location and with Time

Temperature Anomaly °C

Climate Varies by Location and with Time

a) Yogi Berra

b) Albert Einstein

c) Mark Twain

d) Winston Churchill

e) George Bernard Shaw

f) Niels Bohr

g) Will Rogers

h) Enrico Fermi

i) Dan Quayle

j) Woody Allen

k) Confucius

“Prediction is hard, especially about the future”

a) Yogi Berra

b) Albert Einstein

c) Mark Twain

Past Minor reductions (RCP8.5) Paris commitments (RCP4.5) Paris goal (RCP2.6)

Future Warming in BC

Increased hot days

Increased hot days

Days above 25°C

More frequent and more intense wet days

Bella Coola Sept 2010

More frequent and more intense wet days

Wettest day of the year

Fewer frost days

Central Interior 2013 https://news.ubc.ca/2013/03/26/mountain-pine-beetle-genome-decoded/

Fewer days below freezing

Days colder than 0°C

• Make use of available climate information

• Consider a range of future projections

• Practice cross-disciplinary engagement

• Iteration, iteration, iteration

Best practices for considering future climate

Email tmurdock@uvic.ca

More information www.PacificClimate.org Climate Insights 101 http://pics.uvic.ca/education/climate-insights-101#quicktabs-climate_insights_101=1 BC Regional Adaptation Collaborative https://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/ccaq_bcrac.html

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Questions or feedback?

Thank You

Online adaptation tools webinar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxj-3gPkDW4

• Plan2Adapt

• Regional Analysis Tool

• ClimateBC / ClimateWNA / HectaresBC / BC Climate Explorer

• PCIC data portals

– BC station data

– High-resolution PRISM climatology

– Statistically downscaled climate scenarios

– VIC hydrological model output (gridded)

– Station hydrological model output

• Seasonal maps

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PCIC* climate tools for BC

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Primary* audiences

Ease of use Flexibility Type of output

Plan2Adapt Planners Decision-makers Consultants

Easy Low Summary table Maps Possible impacts

Regional Analysis Tool Impacts researchers Engineers

Difficult Medium

High Maps Plots Regional analysis

PCIC data portals Impacts researchers Hydrologists Consultants

Medium Medium Data

Seasonal maps Managers Easy Low Maps

ClimateBC ClimateWNA HectaresBC Databasin

Foresters Ecologists Impacts researchers

Medium High Data Maps

BC Climate Explorer Foresters, general Easy Medium Maps Plots

PCIC* climate tools for BC

• Educational/background

• CBC podcast mini series

• Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS): Climate Insights 101

• What if climate change is real? – Katherine Hayhoe Ted Talk

• Adaptation guidance

• PICS adaptation in buildings infographic

• Infrastructure Canada Climate Lens

• BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Technical Circular

• EGBC guidance document

• Climate / engineering language primer

• National guidebook on climate scenarios

More resources

• Climate Projections Reports released by regional districts

• Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District

• Climate Projections for the Capital Region

• Climate Projections for Metro Vancouver

• Climate Projections for Whistler

• City of Vancouver Climate Impacts Summary

• Webinar: Three important factors for adaptation: location, location, location https://goo.gl/cVWJZ1

And even more resources

2015 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/2015_Year_in_Review-Final.pdf

2016 https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2016/bc-track-set-new-temperature-record-2016 and https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2017/climate-variability-hot-cold-winter-%E2%80%9916-%E2%80%9817

2017 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/PCIC_Update_Mar_2018.pdf

2015 / 2016 /2017 weather events, seasons

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Past Past(updated)

2020s 2050s 2080s

Un

met

Co

olin

g H

ou

rs

Steo 2 Step 3 Step 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Past 2020s 2050s 2080s

EUI (

kWh

r/m

2)

Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

Energy Use Unmet Cooling Hours

Source: UBC (Campus and Community Planning) with RDH Building Science

Northwest: warming across all seasons

Northwest: wetter especially in spring & autumn