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Elliott D. Pollack & Company
What Resolution Copper Could Mean to the Superior Region
June 12th, 2013
Presented By: Danny Court
Economist, Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251 480-423-9200 P / 480-423-5942 F / www.arizonaeconomy.com / info@edpco.com
• Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis/Modeling
• Real Estate Market and Feasibility Studies
• Litigation Support
• Revenue Forecasting
• Keynote Speaking
• Public Finance and Policy Development
• Land Use Economics
• Economic Development
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Current Economic Conditions
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Population
Year Population Avg. Annual % Change
1960 4,875 1970 4,975 0.2% 1980 4,600 -0.8% 1990 3,648 -2.8% 2000 3,254 -0.6% 2010 2,837 -1.4%
Source: U.S. Census
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Where Are Superior Residents Working?
Source: U.S. Census
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0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
$20-30 $30-40 $40-50 $50-60 $60-70 $70-80 $90-100
# of
Wor
kers
Income Range (‘000’s)
Annual Incomes in Pinal and Gila Counties, 2011
Pinal (n=53,880) Gila (n=13,660)
Resolution Copper direct jobs will contribute to the top end of incomes
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Town of Superior Financial Health
Currently in a deficit
Projected to run a chronic deficit (expenditures exceed revenue)
Solutions include: raising property tax rate Raising sales tax rate charging for additional services
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Resolution Copper Painting the Picture
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What drives an economy?
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Flow of a Region’s Economy Base Industries
Manufacturing, Mining, Tourism, Export-Related Business Services, Retirement, Etc.
Local Market Industries Retail, Construction, Local Business Services, Banks,
Local Government
Spending by
Base Industries
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The health of an
economy is a function
of its export, or
“base” industries.
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Those industries where demand for goods & services comes from outside the region
“Export” or “Base” Industries
This creates demand for local goods & services.
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“Local Market” or “Domestic Sector” Industries
These industries exist because of demand created within the local market
These industries are chasing $$ brought in by export related industries.
What happens in these industries is a function of what happens to “export” or “base” sector industries.
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EMPLOYMENT
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Construction Employment brings an immediate
economic boost.
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Multiple Simultaneous Solar Farm Projects
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Daytime Construction = Tourism Spending
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Solar Projects Resolution Copper
Peak Construction Employment
2-4 Years 8-10 Years
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Permanent Jobs
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Resolution Copper
- 2,300 Indirect Jobs
- 1,400 Direct Jobs
DECADES OF PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT
- $107.2 mil in wages
- $113.3 mil in wages
Image Source: Rio Tinto
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• Resolution Copper will employ 1,400 people (Direct Impact).
• That creates a ripple effect of an additional 2,300 jobs throughout the state.
• Superior will be able to capture a portion of those jobs.
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Top 30 Ripple Effect Industries
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Tax Revenue
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New Tax Revenue will help stabilize Town government
Will also result in lower taxes for residents
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Property Taxes
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Case Study – Greenlee County
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School District
Student Population
Net Assessed Value
Value per Student
Combined District Rate
A $75,000 home in Superior pays $381.29 in school district property taxes.
The same home in the Morenci School District pays $204.19 in school district property taxes.
Clifton 68 $13,662,226 $200,915 2.3337
Duncan 364 $12,690,883 $34,865 8.9125
Morenci 1,342 $261,324 2.7225 $350,696,790 Superior 443 $20,791,082 $46,932 5.0838
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Resolution (est.)
Freeport Morenci
Freeport Safford
BHP Pinto Valley
Freeport Miami
Thou
sand
s
Copper Production per Year (tons)
1.5x 5x 8x 15x
Copper Production = Property Value
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County-Level property taxes could also decline.
Current County NAV
2012 County Property Tax
Rate
Est. Resolution
Copper NAV $2.15 billion 3.7999 ~$500 mil
Adding 20% to county-wide valuation
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New Population
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• New workers who move to Superior will include families.
• Each new person = $348 annually in state shared revenue.
• With over 3,700 new jobs, new home construction will likely be demanded.
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Direct Jobs – Where will a years wages go?
$3,000
$3,000 $21,000 $75,000/yr
$1,000
$4,000
$3,000
$1,000
$8,000 Sources: Resolution Copper, BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey
JOBS
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QUESTIONS?
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