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What does it take for local actors in Hammarby Sjöstad to cut the consumption-based emissions by half till 2030?
-A backcasting study on the local climate transition following Carbon Law
Petter Olson, MSc KTH
petter_olson@hotmail.com@petter_olson
Sharing cities
Test-beds on sharing economy in four Swedish cities
Stockholm Göteborg
Malmö Umeå
Sharing Cities StockholmHammarby Sjöstad
11000 appartments25000 residents (2020)
Examine whether sharing and digitization can:
Strengthen social and spatial association between neighbors (health and well-being)
Support local actors to reach the adopted climate targets
Accelerate climate change mitigation, locally
Sharing Cities StockholmProject manager:Charlie Gullström, KTH
Test-bed coordinator:Selene Samuelsson, ElectriCITY
8 tons CO2e per person 0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
0,6
2,0
1,0
2,4
1,7
Hammarby Sjöstad baseline emissions (ton CO2e/person and year)
2020
Method - Hybrid of top-down and bottom-up calculations
Carbon Law
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J. et. al. 2017. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science, Volume 355 Issue 6331
Carbon Law
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J. et. al. 2017. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science, Volume 355 Issue 6331
100%93%
100%
79%
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Target comparison - Total consumption based emissions (relative CO2e/person)
Business as usual Stockholm City
HS 2.0?
Sweden and Stockholm
- predictive- explorative
100%93%
100%
79%
100%
86%75%
65%57%
50%
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Target comparsion - Total consumptionbased emissions (relative CO2e/person)
Business as usual Stockholm City Hammarby Sjöstad 2.0
A scenario for halved emissions
- normative
2030 targets for HammarbySjöstad
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
0,6
2,0
1,0
2,4
1,7
0,1
1,0
0,2
1,7
0,9
Hammarby Sjöstad's Carbon Law Transition
2020 2030
Innovative and unusual approach to backcasting
Backcasting on city districts level
Consumption-based emissions – as opposed to territorial
Quantitative-qualitative – both calculations, stakeholder analysis, an Image of the Future.
What-who? – adding a social perspective
Extern-local actors – where lies the responsibility?
95%
10%
90%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ground transport - modal split (cars only)
Conventional car HVO
Plug-in electric vehicles Self-driving electric taxis
What does it take?
- Cars
-83%
Technological development -30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ground transport - relative emissions (CO2e)
Conventional car HVO
Plug-in electric vehicles Self-driving electric taxis
-86%
What does it take?
- Cars
90%
10%
10%
20%
70%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Food - required diet split
Conventional Meat mitigator Vegetarian Cliamte carnivore
What does it take?
- Food
Technological development: -10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Food - relative emissions (CO2e)
Conventional Meat mitigatorVegetarian Cliamte carnivore
-50%
What does it take?
- Food
Who needs to change?
External actors - technology development, Stockholm city, external companies, research and innovation projects.
Local actors - residents, local businesses and organizations, ElectriCITY/ HS2.0
Conclusion
What does it take?- External actors must keep what they promises- Local actors must act on all categories- New organizational models
What can the individual do?- Follow the individual transition scenarios
How many must do what, starting when? - The vast majority must utilize a large part of their full potential- The transition must start immediately with at least 7 percent reduction per year, across all sectors.
What does it take?
Electrec, n.d
Discussion Backcasting on city districts
level
Consumption-based emissions – as opposed to territorial
Quantitative-qualitative –both calculations, stakeholder analysis, an Image of the Future.
What-who? – adding a social perspective
Extern-local actors – where lies the responsibility?
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
0,6
2,0
1,0
2,4
1,7
0,1
1,0
0,2
1,7
0,9
Hammarby Sjöstad's Carbon Law Transition
2020 2030
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