What do the American people think? How do we know what the American people think?

Opinion and Polling

Opinion and Polling

What do the American people think?

How do we know what the American people think?

Opinion and Polling

Political Socialization• the process of obtaining political

ideologies, viewpoints and opinions• Influenced by . . .

Family School Occupation, race, gender, place of

residence (specific issues)

Opinion and Polling

Political Socialization• Influenced by . . .

Family School Occupation, race, gender, place of

residence (specific issues) Mass media Peer groups Opinion leaders Historic events

Opinion and Polling

Opinion Polling

Opinion and Polling

Opinion and Polling

Opinion and PollingI. Straw Poll

A. UnscientificB. Relies on asking a large number of peopleC. Respondents are self-selected (not

random)

Opinion and PollingII. Scientific Polling

A. Define the universe – the population that the poll aims to measure

Opinion and Polling

Opinion and PollingII. Scientific Polling

A. Define the universe – the population that the poll aims to measure

B. Constructing a sample (random sample) – universe too large to ask everyone

1. All members of the universe have an equal chance of being interviewed

2. Usually 1,000 – 1,500 people (law of probability)

3. + or – 3% margin of error

Opinion and PollingII. Scientific Polling

C. Prepare valid questions1. Phrasing

Opinion and Polling“Should taxes be increased?”

“Should taxes be increased in order to expand the police force in order to stem the rising tide of violence in our city?”

Opinion and PollingII. Scientific Polling

C. Prepare valid questions1. Phrasing2. Bias

Opinion and Polling“The right of a woman to terminate her pregnancy should be protected.”

“The right of a woman to murder the unborn child in her womb should be protected.”

Opinion and PollingII. Scientific Polling

C. Prepare valid questions1. Phrasing2. Bias

D. Interview respondents1. By phone = more cost effective2. Interviewer

a. Toneb. Emphasisc. Accent / dialect

Opinion and PollingII. Scientific Polling

E. Analyze findings1. Interpretation (subjective)2. computerization