Welcome to Weather-Related Decision- Making for General Aviation Pilots Flight 4 – Brookings...

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WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING

Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph.D. 1

Welcome to Weather-Related Decision-Making for General Aviation

Pilots

Flight 4 – Brookings State, Oregon TO Redmond, Oregon

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WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING

Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph.D. 2

Complete a Flight - Instructions

• Now let’s put things together in a series of flights in which you need to be aware of changing weather conditions, and you need to consider all the factors related to an in-flight diversion.

• Each flight has been divided into a series of segments. At the end of each segment you will see a video clip of the weather conditions that you are currently experiencing. At the end of the video clip you will be asked whether you would like to continue the flight or divert to an alternate destination. If you decide to divert, a number of options will appear, and you will be asked to select an option and choose a new destination.

• Throughout the flight, you will have access to the material that is normally available during a cross-country flight under visual flight rules. You can access this material by clicking on the list. Before you begin the flight you have the opportunity to spend as much time as you like examining this material.

• Because of computer limitations, the Aeronautical Chart for each flight is not very detailed. If you wish to see a more detailed map, click on the “Map Link” and you will be taken to a web site in which you can zoom and scan in to see a very detailed view of the route.

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight detailsAeronautical Chart [Map Link]Airports

Brookings StateMedfordRedmondChiloquin StateIllinois ValleyCrescent Lake State

Area ForecastMeteorological ReportsWeather Charts

Radar SummarySurface Weather

Terminal Area ForecastFlight Plan

TAKEOFF

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 20 nm NE of Brookings

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 40 nm NE of Brookings

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 60 nm NE of Brookings

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 20 nm NE of Medford

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 40 nm NE of Medford

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 60 nm NE of Medford

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 80 nm NE of Medford

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 100 nm NE of Medford

Flight 4Brookings State (OR) via Medford (OR) to Redmond (OR)

Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Brookings State– Medford– Redmond– Chiloquin State– Illinois Valley– Crescent Lake State

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 120 nm NE of Medford

Flight 4Aeronautical Chart

RETURN

Brookings StateRETURN

MedfordRETURN

Redmond RETURN

Chiloquin State

Illinois Valley

Crescent Lake State

Flight 4 – Weather Forecast

RETURN

Flight 4 – Meteorological Reports

RETURN

Flight 4 – Weather Charts – Radar Summary RETURN

Flight 4 – Weather Charts – Surface Weather RETURN

Flight 4 - TAF

RETURN

Flight 4 – Flight Plan

RETURN

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 1

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Very Good Very Good

Expected Weather Good Good

Facilities Very Good Poor

En-route Terrain Very Good Very

Good

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

At this stage of the flight it is useful to compare the conditions to those that were reported in the meteorological report. Since there has been no significant change in any of the indicators recorded in the meteorological report, the decision to divert is not necessarily warranted at this stage of the flight. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until you feel more comfortable with the conditions.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 2

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Good Very Good

Expected Weather Good Good

Facilities Very Good Poor

En-route Terrain Good Very

Good

In comparison to the preceding stage of the flight, the majority of indicators remain unchanged. However, there does appear to be an improvement in the density of the cloud. Since there is no deterioration in any of the indicators, the decision to divert might be considered premature at this stage of the flight. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until you feel more comfortable with the conditions.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 3

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Fair Good

Expected Weather Good Good

Facilities Very Good Poor

En-route Terrain Fair Fair

At this stage of the flight it appears that the visibility may have improved somewhat. Since there is no deterioration in any of the indicators, the decision to divert might be considered premature at this stage of the flight. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until you feel more comfortable with the conditions.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 4

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Fair Good Good

Expected Weather Good Good Good

Facilities Poor Very Good Fair

En-route Terrain Poor Very Good Good

At this stage of the flight, a number of indicators have deteriorated, including the cloud-base, the visibility, and the cloud density. The clouds have also darkened and the horizon is no longer visible. Since at least three of the weather-related indicators have deteriorated, a diversion is considered appropriate at this stage of the flight.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 5

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Very Good Good Good

Expected Weather Good Good Poor

Facilities Very Good Fair Fair

En-route Terrain Good Good Very Good

While there have been improvements in a number of the indicators at this stage, it probably reflects the fact that the deterioration at the previous stage was so poor. Given the conditions experienced during the preceding stage of the flight, a decision to divert should really have been made at this stage.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 6

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Fair Fair Very Good

Expected Weather Fair Good Poor

Facilities Very Good Fair Fair

En-route Terrain Good Good Very Good

Despite the conditions at the previous stage of the flight, three of the indicators have deteriorated at the present stage. In particular, visibility has deteriorated, the clouds have darkened, and the density of the cloud has increased. Given that there are three indicators that have deteriorated, it is important to consider the need for a diversion at this stage.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: : Divert 7

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance ✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Poor Very Good

Expected Weather Fair Very Poor

Facilities Fair Fair

En-route Terrain Good Very Good

There has been a deterioration in most of the weather-related indicators at this stage of the flight. The flight is being conducted in conditions that are below that required for visual meteorological conditions, and a diversion should have been initiated at the first stage at which at least three of the weather-related indicators had deteriorated.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 8

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Poor Very Good

Expected Weather Fair Very Poor

Facilities Fair Fair

En-route Terrain Good Very Good

Although there has been relatively little change in the weather-related indicators from the previous stage of the flight, the conditions remain well below that required for visual flight. Consequently, there are now very few options remaining for the visual pilot, and a diversion should really have been initiated at the first stage at which at least three of the weather-related indicators had deteriorated.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Brookings State to Redmond: Divert 9

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Brookings Illinois Valley Medford Chiloquin

StateCrescent

Lake

Distance Poor Very Good

Expected Weather Fair Very Poor

Facilities Fair Fair

En-route Terrain Good Very Good

Although there has been relatively little change in the weather-related indicators from the previous stage of the flight, the conditions remain well below that required for visual flight. Consequently, there are now very few options remaining for the visual pilot, and a diversion should really have been initiated at the first stage at which at least three of the weather-related indicators had deteriorated.

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING

Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph.D. 35

IMC

• You are now flying your aircraft in Instrument Meteorological Conditions. If you are a visually-rated pilot, this is a violation of your privileges. More importantly, as a visually-rated pilot, it is very possible that you will lost control of the aircraft or will collide with the terrain while attempting to escape from the clouds.

• In the interest of developing the skills necessary to avoid unintended flight into IMC, you may wish to take this flight again, taking care to note the weather-related indicators that occur throughout the flight.

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING

Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph.D. 36

In-Flight Diversions - Summary

• This section of the program was designed to give you an opportunity to practice in-flight weather-related decisions. You should now be able to recognize the onset of deteriorating conditions using the weather indicators, and you should be aware of the way that you make decisions.

• Finally, you always need to avoid being pressured into continuing a flight. Good airmanship requires that you always give yourself alternatives.

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING

Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph.D. 37

Program Summary

• You should now be aware of the value of looking for indications that the weather is deteriorating and that you may need to divert, based on good weather-related decision making.

• We hope that you enjoyed this program, and that you will apply it’s principles in your future flights.

THE END

For more training programs and for self-evaluation exercises, please visit our web site at: www.avhf.com

Additional training flights are available here.

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