Welcome to the Symposium on Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks November 16, 2011

Welcome to the Symposium on

Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks

November 16, 2011

Space Policy InstituteElliott School of International Affairs

George Washington University1957 E Street, NW

Washington, D.C. 20052

Challenges for Government Initiatives

• Costs for on-going conflicts

• Rise in transfer payments • Aging population/health care costs

• Infrastructure recapitalization

• Non-State threats: physical, WMD, cyber

• Global economic turmoil

2

Past Assumptions for Launch Demand and Technical Readiness

3

Known Production Capacity Per Year

0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 Comments

RD-180 20

RP Inline Vehicle Exceeds known Production Capacity for 4 flights per year (2 flts likely)

RS-25D Sidemount meets production exactly while SSME Inline exceed production by 67% for 4 flights per year. RS-25E

RS-68 (all) 36 40 Original

RS-68 Inline does not exceed production capacity even with USAF buy (4 flts possible)

RL-10Inline RP exactly meet production, but not with USAF buy

J-2X 4(50%)

RP Inline Exceeds J-2X Production by 200+% for 4 flights 2 Flights likely/RS-68 Inline does not exceed J-2X production

Solid Boosters 5-Segment

24

All vehicles do not exceed solid production capability

Policy, Architecture, and Acquisition Decisions Determine the Space Launch Industrial Base

National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2009 55

12(100%)

16-20

8(33%)

8

28 (140%)

20 (167%)

20(56%)

20 (100%)

12

20

NASA rate at 4 heavy lift flights per year. Air Force at EELV rate.Green represents known/estimated production at present.

Agenda

• Keynote Presentation – the Space Industrial Base• Panel 1 – Alternative Market Possibilities• Panel 2 – Financial and Market Risks for Space Launch

ProvidersLunch• Panel 3 – Public/Private Sector Roles and Responsibilities• Panel 4 – Near-term Risks to the Space Launch Industrial Base• Panel 5 – International Customers, Competitors and Partners• Closing and SummariesReception

6

National Space Transportation Policy Review

• NSC-led policy review currently underway

– Possible release by end of 2011

• Some likely issues:

– Human space transportation

• SLS , MPCV, EELV, New Entrants

– Criteria for USG use of new launch vehicles

– Space Industrial base – rocket motors

– Technology development

– Interagency coordination – NASA, AF, NRO

– International cooperation – critical paths?

• Extension of INKSNA wavier for payments to Russia?

7

International Commercial Cooperation

8

Key Policy Questions

What is the relationship of human space transportation to larger U.S. foreign policy, economic, and national security interests?

Is there is a need for independent U.S. government human access to space, and if not, the identification of those entities upon which we are willing to depend for such access;

Is it in the larger interests of the United States to invite international partnerships in regard to capabilities which are on the so-called “critical path” for common exploration goals; 

The degree to and roles in which the U.S. government should foster the development, and embrace the capabilities, of “commercial space” in the furtherance of national goals; 

The proper role of NASA in the human expansion into space, and in particular NASA’s disparate functions as 'innovator and technology developer' vs. ‘designer/developer/smart buyer’ of new systems, and ‘system operator’ vs. ‘service customer’.