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Welcome toANR at Noon
November 22, 2013
Crop Market Outlook and the Farm Bill
Chad Hart
chart@iastate.edu
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.3
Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 160.4
Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,989
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 824
Imports (mil. bu.) 8 28 29 162 25
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,837
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,333 5,200
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 4,900
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,450
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 1,400
Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,108 12,950
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 824 1,887
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50
Source: USDA-WAOB
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5
Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.0
Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,258
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 141
Imports (mil. bu.) 15 14 16 36 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,413
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,685
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 110 130 88 90 109
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,450
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,098 3,243
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 151 215 169 141 170
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.15
Source: USDA-WAOB
Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2013 Projected YieldBottom: Change from last monthUnits: Bushels/acre
Projected Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2013 Projected YieldBottom: Change from last monthUnits: Bushels/acre
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 11/15/2013
4.07
4.23
4.36
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 11/15/2013
12.14
10.9210.75
Thoughts for 2014 and BeyondSupply/demand concernsCorn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so goodAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14Futures
(11/15/13)
Corn $6.89 $4.50 $4.07
Soybeans $14.40 $12.15 $12.14
Farm Bill TitlesI. Commodities IX. EnergyII. Conservation X. Hort. & Organic Ag.III. Trade XI. LivestockIV. Nutrition XII. Crop InsuranceV. Credit XIII. Commodity
FuturesVI. Rural Development XIV. MiscellaneousVII. Research XV. Trade & TaxesVIII. Forestry
Ideas on the Next Farm BillLet’s look at the common features from the House
and Senate bills
Both versions of the farm bill eliminate direct payments, countercyclical payments, ACRE, and SURE
The marketing loan program would continue
Livestock disaster programs would be reestablished
Reference PricesSenate: 55% of 5-yr Olympic average MYA
price
House: Set by lawCorn $3.70Wheat $5.50Soybean $8.40
Corn $2.95
Wheat $3.62
Soybean $6.29
ARC or RLC instead of ACRERevenue-based support program
Revenues based on 5-year Olympic averages for yields and prices
Yields and prices have cups (T-yields and reference prices)
AMP or PLC instead of CCPPrice-based support program
Reference prices establish targets
Works like CCP
Payment rate = Max(0, Reference price – Max(MYA price, Loan rate))
Dairy
Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program Voluntary margin coverage, with the
opportunity for supplemental coverage
Dairy Market Stabilization Program Managed supplies when margins fall
SCO Examples from Last Year’s Bills
Source: Congressional Research Service
Thank you for joining us todayWe invite your feedback and suggestions for future ANR @ Noon webinars:
John Lawrence – jdlaw@iastate.edu
Chris Mondak- cmondak@iastate.edu
Next date: Dec 13, 2013
Windbreak Management
Jesse RandallISUEO Forestry Extension
Natural Resource Ecology and Management
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