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Welcome
DSTA Presentation Outlook 20182
ABN Amro Bank Barclays Citigroup
Commerzbank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs
HSBC France ING Bank Jefferies
Natixis NatWest Markets Nomura
Nordea Rabobank Société Générale
15 Primary Dealers, Single Market Specialists and CP Dealers
Today’s programme
DSTA Presentation Outlook 20183
15.00 hrs Welcome by Martin Heerma
15.05 hrsKeynote speaker: Willem Buiter (Citi)Outlook for Europe’s economy and financial markets
15.50 hrsLooking back on funding 2017 and Primary Dealer AwardsEmile Spijkerman, DSTA
16.10 hrsFunding and issuance in 2018Martin Heerma, DSTA
16.30 hrs Drinks & Bites
The Hague15 December 2017
Overview of this presentation
DSTA Presentation Outlook 20185
• The economy and the budget
• Looking back on funding 2017
• DSTA Awards
• Funding plan 2018
• Q&A
Photo theme Outlook 2018
DSTA Presentation Outlook 20186
DSTA Presentation Outlook 2018 7
The economy andthe budget
Solid economic growth across the board
DSTA Presentation Outlook 20188
Source: CPB, 19 September 2017
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Household consumption Investments in housing
Business investments Government consumption
Exports GDP growth
Labour market tightens
DSTA Presentation Outlook 20189
0
1
2
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
unemployment rate, lhs (% labour force, seasonally adjusted)
Job vacancies rate, rhs (%labour force, seasonally adjusted)
Source: Statistics Netherlands, 28 November 2017
Budget surpluses and falling debt levels
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201810
Source: CPB, 27 October 2017
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS)
DSTA Presentation Outlook 2018 11
Looking back on funding 2017
Lower funding need than anticipated
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201812
30 - 35
32.5
24.4 - 29.4
18.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Capital market Money market
€ bn
Money market changes explained
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201813
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Outlook 2017 Cash effects
2016 + 2017
Sale of state
owned
enterprises
Change in
cash collateral
Buy-back of
DSLs
Latest update
Stock and flow of money market in 2017 (€ bn)
DSTA Presentation Outlook 2018 14
DSTA Awards
Global Commercial Paper programme
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201815
GCP volumes outstanding in 2017 (€ bn)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
ECP USCP
DSTA Awards
Top 3 Global Commercial Paper
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201816
1. Rabobank
2. ING Bank
3. Barclays
Dutch Treasury Certificates
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201817
DTC volumes outstanding in 2017 (€ bn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17
DSTA Awards
Top 3 DTC
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201818
1. ING Bank
2. Nordea
3. ABN Amro Bank
Dutch State Loans
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201819
Cumulative DSL issuance in 2017 by maturity (€ bn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2022 2024 2027 off-the-run
DSTA Awards
Top 3 DSL
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201820
1. Jefferies
2. ABN Amro Bank
3. Nordea
DSTA Presentation Outlook 2018 21
Funding plan 2018
Borrowing requirement 2018
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201822
Borrowing requirement (€ bn)
Capital market redemptions 2018 38.5
Money market ulimo 2017 18.6
Cash balance (- = surplus) -3.6
Total funding need 2018 53.5
Update on 3 January 2018 by press release
Dealing with a persistently lower funding need
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201823
• Capital market is cornerstone
• Money market is primarybuffer
• Every year issuance of 10 yearDSL
• Commitment to both shorterand longer end of the curve
• Ensuring liquiditySource: CPB and internal calculations
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
EMU debt (% GDP; right) Total funding (€ bn; left)
Funding 2018: distribution between CM and MM
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201824
Funding (€ bn)
Capital market 23 - 29
Money market ultimo 2018 24.5 – 30.5
Total funding need 2018 53.5
Capital market issuance in 2018
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201825
DSLIndicative amount
(€ bn)
New DSL 2028 (DDA) 12 - 15
Reopening DSL 2024 9
Longer dated issuance* 2 - 5
Total DSL funding 23 - 29
* This could be the reopening of longer-dated off-the-run bonds or a new longer dated bond. This will be decided in the course of the year.
Issuance calendars Q1 2018
DSTA Presentation Outlook 201826
Auction date Details Target volume (€ bn)
9 January Reopening 0% DSL 15 January 2024 1.5 - 2.5
February/March* DDA: new 10-year bond: DSL To be announced
Auction date Settlement date 3-month programme 6-month programme
8 January 10 January 29 June 2018
15 January 17 January 29 March 2018 29 June 2018
5 February 7 February 31 July 2018
19 February 21 February 30 April 2018 31 July 2018
5 March 7 March 31 August 2018
19 March 21 March 31 May 2018 31 August 2018
DSTA Presentation Outlook 2018 27
Questions?
28
Please join us for drinks and bites!
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