Weekly Market Update 8-23-17phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA8-23-17.pdf · POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE...

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Weekly Market Update 8-23-17

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TheFed’sannualJacksonHolemeetingbeginsonFridayofthisweek.However,themarketisalready“smelling”whatiscoming.Firstandforemost,theEuropullbackisover.TheEuroisnowgoingto120ifnothigher.

Ihadthoughtwe’dseemoreofacorrectionhere.ThefactthattheEuroonlyconsolidatedinsteadofcorrectingconfirmsmyviewthattheECBwillbeendingitsQEprogram.AsI’venotednumeroustimesbefore,thelargestcurrencymovesnowoccurwhenaCentralBankpromisestostartorendaQEprogram.WhenaCentralBankpromisesanewQEprogramitscurrencyfalls.AndwhenaCentralBankbeginsendingaQEprogramitscurrencyrallies.CurrentlytheECBisengagedina€60billionpermonthQEprogram.BasedonthecontinuedstrengthintheEuro,IexpectECBPresidentMarioDraghiwillbeusingtheFed’sJacksonHolemeetingtoannouncethattheECBwillbetaperingitsQEprogramshortly.ThereasonisthattheECBhascreatedatrulymassivebubbleinEUbonds.AsIwritethis,EUJUNKBONDSareyieldingroughlythesameasthe10-YearUSTreasuryNote(therisk-freerateofreturn).

Weekly Market Update (8-23-17)

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Putanotherway,becauseoftheECB’sQEprogram,thebondmarketisclaimingthatlendingmoneytoanindividualcompanyinEuropewitha“junk”creditratingisassafeaslendingmoneytotheUnitedStates(thelargesteconomyintheworldwiththeCentralBankthatcontrolstheworld’sreservecurrency).ThisisabsoluteinsanityandtheECBknowsit.Indeed,therearealreadysignsthatGermanyisbeginningtoturnagainsttheECB’sQEprogram.

TheEuropeanCentralBankmaybeviolatinglawsonmonetaryfinancinginits2.3trillioneuro($2.7trillion)assetpurchaseprogramme,Germany’sconstitutionalcourtsaidonTuesday,anditaskedEurope’stopcourttomakearuling.InthebiggestchallengeyettotheECB’sunprecedentedefforttorevivegrowth,thecourtsaidbondbuysundertheschememaygobeyondthebank’smandateandinhibiteurozonemembers’activities.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-court-idUSKCN1AV0PN

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Again,IfullyexpectECBPresidentMarioDraghitolaythefoundationforadditionaltaperingoftheECB’sQEprogramattheFed’sJacksonHolemeetingstartingFriday.ThiswillignitetheEuroandpushthe$USDlower.Withthatinmind,it’stimetocloseourUSDollarposition.Ihadthoughtwe’dgeta2%bouncehere.Insteadwe’vebasicallyseenthe$USDmovesideways.Regardless,it’stimetoshiftbackintotheEuroasitpreparesforitsmoveabove120,toitseventualtargetof130.

ActiontoTake:SelltheUSDollarETF(UUP).ActiontoTake:BuytheEuroTrust(FXE).GoingforwardtheEuroTrustwillbeourcashposition.AstheEurosurges,EUstockmarketswillcollapse.TheGermanDAXhasbouncedoffsupportat12,000(purpleline).It’snowrollingoverandwillbeginitsnextlegdownto11,250.

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France’sstockmarketisinasimilarboat(bouncingoffsupport,andnowreadytorollover)…

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…asisItaly’sstockmarket.

Putsimply,theEuroisgoingtorallyandEUstockmarketsaregoingtodrophard.Theflipsideofthistradeisthatthe$USDwillbedropping,whichisgoingtoigniteOil.TheEnergySectorETF(XLE)isgoingto65.

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However,evenmorebullishistheOilServicesETF(OIH).

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ActiontoTake:BuytheOilServicesETF(OIH)OtherplaysIlike...Apache(APA)isgoingto$50.

ActiontoTake:BuyApache(APA)Halliburton(HAL)isgoingto$46,ifnot$48.

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ActiontoTake:BuyHalliburton(HAL)

Outsideofthis,NaturalGas(UNG)finallylooksreadytobreakouttotheupside.We’realreadyuponthisposition.ButIexpectmuchbiggergainssoon.

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AnothermajordevelopmentconcernsGold,whichhasfinallybrokenthe7-yeardowntrendlinesincethe2011peak.

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ThisisaVERYbullishdevelopment.Weshouldbreaknorthof$1,300thisweekandbeonourwaynorthof$1,320inSeptember.GoldMiners(GDX)haveyettofollowsuit…buttheyarecoilinginpreparationforatrulyviolentbreakout.

HereisthecomparablelineforSilver.

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HereisthecomparablelineforSilverMiners.

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Putsimply:weareabouttoenteranotherroundof$USDweakness.ThiswillbepushingOil,Gold,andGoldMinerssharplyhigher.Again,feelfreetoaddyourpositionsinanyofourGoldorSilverMiningplays.Thisconcludesthisweek’sWeeklyMarketUpdateforPrivateWealthAdvisory.Fornow,thekeytrendis$USDweakness.Thefactthatthegreenbackcouldn’tevengenerateasignificantbouncefromsuchoversoldlevelstellsusthatthisremainsadominanttheme.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayafterthemarket’scloseinourlongermonthlyissueinwhichIwillbedelvingmoredeeplyintothekeymacrotrendsfortheglobaleconomy.Untilthen…

GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

STOCKS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon8/23/17at1PM.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $12.56 -19% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.00

-7%

PublicStorage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 $204.47 -9%

Verizon VZ 4/26/17 $47.17 $48.44 4%

VietnamETF VNM 6/7/17 $14.64 $14.14 -3%

Transocean RIG 6/15/17 $8.56 $7.60 -11% PioneerNaturalResources PXD 6/15/17 $158.02 $130.42 -17%

HelixEnergySolutions

HLX 7/19/17 $6.16 $6.16 0%

SouthwesternEnergy

SWN 7/19/17 $6.17 $5.31 -14%

EOGResources EOG 7/19/17 $95.00 $85.46 -10%

NaturalGasETF UNG 8/2/17 $6.30 $6.57 4% EnergyTransferPartners

ETP 8/2/17 $21.35 $18.52 -12%

EnterpriseProductsPartners

EPD 8/9/17 $26.08 $25.94 -1%

OilServicesETF OIH 8/23/17 $22.07 NEW BUY!

Apache APA 8/23/17 $40.33 NEW BUY!

Halliburton HAL 8/23/17 $39.06 NEW BUY!

BONDS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY

DATE BUY

PRICE CURRENT

PRICE GAIN/ LOSS

LongTreasuryETF TLT 7/27/17 $123.16 $127.00 3%

EmergingMarketBondsETF EMB 7/27/17 $115.17

$115.75 1%

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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,292.00 15% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $17.00 5%

GoldMinersETF** GDX 10/5/16 $22.45 $23.13 3% GoldMiningJuniorsETF*** GDXJ 10/5/16 $34.72 $33.51

1%

WheatonPreciousMetalsCorp WPM 10/5/16 $22.59 $18.94

-16%

NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $3.41 -9%

BarrickGold ABX 4/26/17 $16.92 $16.90 0%

SilverMiningETF SIL 4/26/17 $34.44 $33.36 -3%

SilverStandard SSRI 4/26/17 $9.94 $10.02 1%

FirstMajesticSilver AG 5/12/17 $8.70 $6.27 -28% RandgoldResources GOLD 5/12/17 $93.25 $96.78 4%

KlondexMiners KLDX 8/9/17 $2.94 $3.19 9% WesdomeGoldMines WDO.TO 8/9/17 $2.18 $2.12 -3%

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon8/23/17at1PM.Gainsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97**Averagepriceof$22.83and$22.07***Averagepriceof$37.52and$31.92

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SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO

CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

CURRENTPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $114.05 NEW BUY!

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon8/23/17at1PM.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $29.57 -26% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $29.94 -39% Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 $136.35 -1% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $140.92 $159.82 -13% Facebook FB 5/31/17 $151.63 $168.69 -11% Alphabet GOOGL 5/31/17 $987.72 $941.20 5% HomebuildersETF XHB 8/9/17 $37.94 $37.34 2%

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POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 1/31/17 $14.59 5%CliffsNatResources(FIRSTHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/13/17 $12.10 19%

Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $5.93 21%Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8%CliffsNatResources(SECONDHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/23/17 $11.13 10%

Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 3/8/17 $81.28 -8% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 3/8/17 $27.83

9%

NaturalGasETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8%

EmergingmarketsETF EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 4/10/17 $39.20 7%

BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 4/10/17 $19.04 23%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 4/12/17 $15.90 9% Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 4/12/17 $11.48 7% CoalETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 4/12/17 $14.51 15% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 4/12/17 $11.32

10%

RoyalGold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.50 4/12/17 $74.14 4%

SilverMiners SIL 3/15/17 $35.81 4/12/17 $37.60 5%

USSteel(SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.97 4/13/17 $29.42 8% CopperMinersETF(SHORT) COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 4/18/17 $21.02 7%

FinancialsETF(SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 4/26/17 $24.06 -2%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

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POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

PeruETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 5/17/17 $34.775%

BrazilETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.53 5/17/17 $39.90 6%UtilitiesETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.35 5/17/17 $51.58 5%SolarEnergyETF TAN 4/19/17 $17.20 5/17/17 $18.00 5%RoyalGold RGLD 4/26/17 $69.92 5/17/17 $79.90 14% SouthwesternEnergy SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 5/24/17 $6.76 -17% GulfportEnergy GPOR 3/30/17 $17.17 5/24/17 $15.47 -10% USOilFund USO 4/26/17 $10.37 5/24/17 $10.60 2% ExxonMobil XOM 5/3/17 $82.70 5/24/17 $82.29 0% EnergyETF(SHORT) XLE 5/24/17 $67.56 6/5/17 $65.05 4% EmergingMktsBondETF EMB 11/21/16 $109.82 6/7/17 $115.95 8% LongUSTreasuries TLT 11/21/16 $121.05 6/15/17 $126.10 5% NuveenEnhancedFreeMuniCreditFund NVG 1/2/14

$13.126/22/17 $15.22 40%

RioTinto RIO 6/19/17 $39.48 7/10/17 $43.48 10% ClearEnergyETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 7/10/17 $4.25 10% EnterpriseProductsPartners

EPD 6/22/17 $26.00 7/17/17$27.70 7%

USoilFund USO 6/28/17 $9.20 7/17/17 $9.57 4% ChinaETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 7/24/17 $28.08 12% Uranium URA 6/15/17 $12.76 7/24/17 $14.28 12% Cameco CCJ 6/15/17 $9.14 7/24/17 $9.95 10% USSteel X 6/19/17 $20.83 7/24/17 $23.69 14% FreeportMcMoran FCX 6/19/17 $11.53 7/25/17 $14.08 22% BiotechETF IBB 4/26/17 $296.15 7/25/17 $324.86 10% Baidu BIDU 6/7/17 $187.53 7/27/17 $200.10 7% PeruETF EPU 6/22/17 $33.64 7/27/17 $35.61 6% Chevron CVX 6/22/17 $104.45 8/2/17 $110.86 6% EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 8/2/17 $114.61 5% USDollarETF UUP 8/2/17 $24.08 8/23/17 $24.18 0%